Did anyone say "Cake Walk"? Read these 3 excerpts and more in the Full report in the thread below!
Attack Israel through Lebanon
"...Iran might urge Hizballah to launch rocket attacks against Israel in response to a U.S. strike, thereby harming a key U.S. ally, scoring points on the Arab street, and undermining efforts to revive Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy. Iran has invested significant efforts and resources in building up Hizballah’s military capabilities for just such a purpose (including, reportedly, more than 30,000 rockets), and Hizballah plays a key role in Iran’s deterrence calculus. However, Hizballah, recovering from its summer 2006 war with Israel, would presumably be reluctant to jeopardize its base of support in the Shiite community, reconstruction efforts in southern Lebanon, and its efforts to rebuild its military forces. The United States might seek to reduce the likelihood of such an eventuality by quietly indicating that, as in 2006, it would support a tough Israeli response to Hizballah rocket attacks. The United States might also accelerate cooperation with Israel on the development and deployment of systems to defend against shortrange rocket attacks."
"...Iran might urge Hizballah to launch rocket attacks against Israel in response to a U.S. strike, thereby harming a key U.S. ally, scoring points on the Arab street, and undermining efforts to revive Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy. Iran has invested significant efforts and resources in building up Hizballah’s military capabilities for just such a purpose (including, reportedly, more than 30,000 rockets), and Hizballah plays a key role in Iran’s deterrence calculus. However, Hizballah, recovering from its summer 2006 war with Israel, would presumably be reluctant to jeopardize its base of support in the Shiite community, reconstruction efforts in southern Lebanon, and its efforts to rebuild its military forces. The United States might seek to reduce the likelihood of such an eventuality by quietly indicating that, as in 2006, it would support a tough Israeli response to Hizballah rocket attacks. The United States might also accelerate cooperation with Israel on the development and deployment of systems to defend against shortrange rocket attacks."
Attack U.S. Interests in Iraq
"Iran could ratchet up support for Shiite militias and "special groups" engaged in attacks on U.S. and Coalition Provisional Authority forces in Iraq... in the wake of a preventive strike, it could dramatically intensify such support, increasing the flow of components for improvised explosive devices as well as more advanced antiarmor and shoulder-launched antiaircraft weapons. In addition, it could sponsor suicide bombings against coalition forces by Shiite groups. Coalition forces would have to intensify efforts to interdict smuggling routes and ratlines used by Iran to bring in weapons and personnel to deal with an intensified Iranian threat."
Attack U.S. and Allied Assets in the Gulf
"Iran could attack critical infrastructure in the Gulf. For instance, Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil processing facility ..Damaging this plant could result in the reduction of crude-oil exports from Saudi Arabia by several million b/d for up to several months.9 However, after a 2006 al-Qaeda attack on Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia improved security at oil installations. Alternatively, Iran could attack water desalination plans on the southern shores of the Persian Gulf, .. This vulnerability could be mitigated, however, by a variety of conventional infrastructure protection measures ...linking the water systems of various Gulf Cooperation Council countries so that an attack on one country’s facilities could be offset by drawing on other plants (a permanent link would take years, but interim measures could considerably reduce the vulnerability). Dragging Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states into a conflict with the United States would, however, have substantial downsides for Iran, and would mean repeating one of its major errors in the Iran-Iraq War. .."
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