"...Application of Occam's Razor to this issue yields the solution that those forces fear that Sadr would become stronger in the elections if allowed to contest them on an "even playing field."
Sadr's response has been to ask for the guidance of the senior ayatollahs in Najaf and Qom as to whether or not he should disarm. This appeal to Najaf and Qom is a strong move. He can hardly lose in this. If he is advised by the ijma' (consensus) of the hawza to retain his forces, then he will do so with religious sanction. If advised to disarm, then Maliki will be in the position of either allowing Sadr to run his candidates relatively unmolested or of being seen to have "rigged" the election against the consensus of the hawza....."
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