EURASIA Group/ Note
11 April, 2008 10:37 AM EDT
The pattern of violence spurred by sharp food price inflation and bread shortages will likely continue in the next few months. The violence will not be organized by a particular political party and will not threaten the government, but Prime Minister Ahmad Nazif and his economic reform team will be weakened. President Hosni Mubarak's old school confidantes will take the lead on policies, and economic reform will take a back seat to stability considerations.
As Eurasia Group predicted in a 19 March note, violence broke out in the days leading up to the 8 April local municipal elections, which coincided with growing popular discontent over rising food prices. The government appears to have been prepared for violence and has taken several steps to blunt the force of popular anger. Mubarak ordered the army to assist with bread production and distribution. Authorities also banned rice exports for six months, and government spokespersons have gone on a public relations blitz to show that they are responding to the crisis. This may reduce violence, but the government's options may ultimately be limited given current global economic conditions, which escape its control.
While international media coverage has focused on street violence, the government still has the upper hand as no opposition party or organized movement has thus far succeeded in exploiting the situation. Unknown forces called for a general strike to take place on 6 April, but it never really materialized on a large scale. Of course, there have been violent clashes between authorities and demonstrators, most notably in Mahalla El Kobra, a northern Nile Delta town which is the site of the largest government-owned textile factory. In Mahalla, laborers were demonstrating against high food costs but were also striking for better wages and bonuses. Fearing the spread of similar demonstrations, Nazif and other ministers visited the factory and agreed to many of the workers' demands. Other small-scale labor strikes will likely occur in the country, and the government is expected to respond with mixture of violence and limited financial accommodation- even if it pressures the government's budget.
Some opposition movements -excluding the Muslim Brotherhood- are still planning to stage anti-government demonstrations, which will continue to stress that the government is more sympathetic to foreign investors than to the average Egyptian. And while many Egyptians share their criticisms, these opponents will not be able to orchestrate mass demonstrations that can really destabilize the regime or force a radical change in government policies. The security forces are already bracing themselves for the second attempt at a general strike on 4 May, which coincides with Mubarak's 80th birthday. Authorities have already detained George Ishak, former head of the Kifaya (Enough) movement, as well as dozens of other activists. Other activists suspected of preparing protests will likely be arrested.
In the medium term, violence will likely be sporadic over the coming months. It will generate international headlines and trigger comparisons to the 1977 bread riots. Although the implementation of economic reforms will be slower going forward, a complete reversal in policy is to be excluded in the short term.
The pattern of violence spurred by sharp food price inflation and bread shortages will likely continue in the next few months. The violence will not be organized by a particular political party and will not threaten the government, but Prime Minister Ahmad Nazif and his economic reform team will be weakened. President Hosni Mubarak's old school confidantes will take the lead on policies, and economic reform will take a back seat to stability considerations.
As Eurasia Group predicted in a 19 March note, violence broke out in the days leading up to the 8 April local municipal elections, which coincided with growing popular discontent over rising food prices. The government appears to have been prepared for violence and has taken several steps to blunt the force of popular anger. Mubarak ordered the army to assist with bread production and distribution. Authorities also banned rice exports for six months, and government spokespersons have gone on a public relations blitz to show that they are responding to the crisis. This may reduce violence, but the government's options may ultimately be limited given current global economic conditions, which escape its control.
While international media coverage has focused on street violence, the government still has the upper hand as no opposition party or organized movement has thus far succeeded in exploiting the situation. Unknown forces called for a general strike to take place on 6 April, but it never really materialized on a large scale. Of course, there have been violent clashes between authorities and demonstrators, most notably in Mahalla El Kobra, a northern Nile Delta town which is the site of the largest government-owned textile factory. In Mahalla, laborers were demonstrating against high food costs but were also striking for better wages and bonuses. Fearing the spread of similar demonstrations, Nazif and other ministers visited the factory and agreed to many of the workers' demands. Other small-scale labor strikes will likely occur in the country, and the government is expected to respond with mixture of violence and limited financial accommodation- even if it pressures the government's budget.
Some opposition movements -excluding the Muslim Brotherhood- are still planning to stage anti-government demonstrations, which will continue to stress that the government is more sympathetic to foreign investors than to the average Egyptian. And while many Egyptians share their criticisms, these opponents will not be able to orchestrate mass demonstrations that can really destabilize the regime or force a radical change in government policies. The security forces are already bracing themselves for the second attempt at a general strike on 4 May, which coincides with Mubarak's 80th birthday. Authorities have already detained George Ishak, former head of the Kifaya (Enough) movement, as well as dozens of other activists. Other activists suspected of preparing protests will likely be arrested.
In the medium term, violence will likely be sporadic over the coming months. It will generate international headlines and trigger comparisons to the 1977 bread riots. Although the implementation of economic reforms will be slower going forward, a complete reversal in policy is to be excluded in the short term.
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