"Dear Pat,
You may find this of interest. From Iraqi TV reports: Muqtada's "Initiative"
(Mubadara) seems to hold, more-or-less. The essence of the Initiative: a ceasefire, everybody in their place, no weapons surrendered to the government. Muqtada also demanded, as part of the cease fire, release of the Mahdi Army prisoners in government hands (around 2000). So far: this is a draw. Government troops continue with sporadic arrests of Mahdi militiamen, but no military breakthrough. It may easily be also seen as a defeat to Maliki, if he gets no US-British support on a large scale. The field of activity is shifting to mass politics. In Basra ans Karbala today for the first time tribal demostrations in support of Maliki. In Basra his own tribe, the Bani Malek, and in Karbala the [Shi'i] branch of the Janabiyyin, a small but highly respected tribe, mainly due to their kinship ties to the highly-influential Sunni Janibiyyin. The two demos danced their tribal war dance (al-Hosa) and sang praise for Maliki. Still, the demos were not very large. In al-Furat TV a list of tribes supportive of Maliki was provided.
This is very reminiscent of Saddam's practice of providing lists of tribal shaykhs swearing allegiance to the Historical Necessity, the Commander of the Legions of the Faithful. In Kazimiyya, on the other hand, there was a demo against Maliki, with a few men carrying a coffin with the PM's name on it. That one too was not very large either. Kazimiyya is Mahdi Army stronghold, with clerical support from the radical Ayatollah Khalisi.
Best
Amatzia "
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