Pressure builds for decision on president
29 February 2008 (Excerpts)
Path forward unclear but three main scenarios exist ....three possible ways forward: 1) the continuation of the current situation, 2) the election of a new president, or 3) the beginning of a new civil war.
Renewed Israel-Hizbullah hostilities are unlikely ....... With Nasrallah’s talk of “open war” outside the traditional battlefield, Israel put its northern forces on alert and ordered its installations abroad to tighten security. While it would seem unlikely that Hizbullah would return to international terrorism, Nasrallah likely cannot afford to allow the killing to go unanswered. Hizbullah will likely respond in a measured way, and not in the immediate term, that will be sufficient to claim revenge, but not enough to provoke an Israeli onslaught. ......
Path forward unclear but three main scenarios exist ....three possible ways forward: 1) the continuation of the current situation, 2) the election of a new president, or 3) the beginning of a new civil war.
Renewed Israel-Hizbullah hostilities are unlikely ....... With Nasrallah’s talk of “open war” outside the traditional battlefield, Israel put its northern forces on alert and ordered its installations abroad to tighten security. While it would seem unlikely that Hizbullah would return to international terrorism, Nasrallah likely cannot afford to allow the killing to go unanswered. Hizbullah will likely respond in a measured way, and not in the immediate term, that will be sufficient to claim revenge, but not enough to provoke an Israeli onslaught. ......
The situation stays the same (55%)
Presidential vacuum likely to continue .....In principle, the opponents will likely continue to publicly support Suleiman as president, while disagreeing ....
Presidential vacuum likely to continue .....In principle, the opponents will likely continue to publicly support Suleiman as president, while disagreeing ....
Mass violence fears have not come to pass ........ the sides are likely somewhat more comfortable in their roles. The March 14 government coalition continues to nominally run state affairs and is aware that it will receive outside financial support to keep it afloat and the opposition is free to criticize the government as Western lackeys from afar.
Two sides unwilling to budge ....
Maintaining status quo carries significant medium-term risks The sides also likely believe that the status quo could exist for several more months as they each weigh their next steps and wait for new impetus from important drivers like the results of the Rafik Hariri tribunal and the 2009 parliamentary elections. Waiting until either new elections or the formation of the Hariri tribunal, however, implies risks as both—the latter in particular—are extremely divisive. The presidential crisis has not and will likely not provoke significant violence and the state continues to function.
It will, however, be increasingly difficult for Lebanon to organize new parliamentary elections and the likelihood of violence increases as the tribunal work progresses (with high-level Lebanese and Syrian figures likely to be accused in the Hariri assassination.) Thus, while maintaining the status-quo is the most likely scenario and perhaps the most appealing to many of the actors it comes with significant medium term risks.
The sides elect a president (35%)
Syria is feeling the pressure to facilitate a presidential election in Lebanon… The likelihood of a president being elected in the coming weeks has increased. The situation is tenser and Damascus is likely beginning to feel the heat of sustained Arab and Western pressure. If Syria were in turn to press its Lebanese allies to facilitate Suleiman’s election, it would likely happen in an 11th hour compromise ahead of the summit. This would allow Syria to invite Lebanon’s new president to the summit, as well as the Saudi monarch and other Arab leaders. The notion of Arab unity would be lauded at the summit and there would be statements about a new era of cooperation. But the rhetoric would not translate into a new era in intra-Arab relations.
…but it would not cure Lebanon’s political problems .......While electing a president would be a positive step, it would likely result in only a temporary boost to stability for Lebanon as the next parliamentary elections will be bitterly fought .......
A new civil war erupts (10%)
Civil war still least likely scenario ........Sectarian violence is, however, possible. If it becomes clear that the political system either cannot produce an acceptable result or it produces a result that appears fundamentally unfair to any of the three main religious groups (the Sunnis, Shias, or Maronites), there would be little to prevent the aggrieved party from taking violent action. In either case, it is unlikely that such violence would cause the total breakdown of the state. Neither internal nor external actors in Lebanon want the state to collapse as it did during the last civil war. All external actors with influence in Lebanon would work to prevent that outcome. There is recognition in Damascus, Tel Aviv, Cairo, Riyadh, and Paris that there cannot be a second country in the region consumed by the kind of chaos that has dominated Iraq in recent years.
Two sides unwilling to budge ....
Maintaining status quo carries significant medium-term risks The sides also likely believe that the status quo could exist for several more months as they each weigh their next steps and wait for new impetus from important drivers like the results of the Rafik Hariri tribunal and the 2009 parliamentary elections. Waiting until either new elections or the formation of the Hariri tribunal, however, implies risks as both—the latter in particular—are extremely divisive. The presidential crisis has not and will likely not provoke significant violence and the state continues to function.
It will, however, be increasingly difficult for Lebanon to organize new parliamentary elections and the likelihood of violence increases as the tribunal work progresses (with high-level Lebanese and Syrian figures likely to be accused in the Hariri assassination.) Thus, while maintaining the status-quo is the most likely scenario and perhaps the most appealing to many of the actors it comes with significant medium term risks.
The sides elect a president (35%)
Syria is feeling the pressure to facilitate a presidential election in Lebanon… The likelihood of a president being elected in the coming weeks has increased. The situation is tenser and Damascus is likely beginning to feel the heat of sustained Arab and Western pressure. If Syria were in turn to press its Lebanese allies to facilitate Suleiman’s election, it would likely happen in an 11th hour compromise ahead of the summit. This would allow Syria to invite Lebanon’s new president to the summit, as well as the Saudi monarch and other Arab leaders. The notion of Arab unity would be lauded at the summit and there would be statements about a new era of cooperation. But the rhetoric would not translate into a new era in intra-Arab relations.
…but it would not cure Lebanon’s political problems .......While electing a president would be a positive step, it would likely result in only a temporary boost to stability for Lebanon as the next parliamentary elections will be bitterly fought .......
A new civil war erupts (10%)
Civil war still least likely scenario ........Sectarian violence is, however, possible. If it becomes clear that the political system either cannot produce an acceptable result or it produces a result that appears fundamentally unfair to any of the three main religious groups (the Sunnis, Shias, or Maronites), there would be little to prevent the aggrieved party from taking violent action. In either case, it is unlikely that such violence would cause the total breakdown of the state. Neither internal nor external actors in Lebanon want the state to collapse as it did during the last civil war. All external actors with influence in Lebanon would work to prevent that outcome. There is recognition in Damascus, Tel Aviv, Cairo, Riyadh, and Paris that there cannot be a second country in the region consumed by the kind of chaos that has dominated Iraq in recent years.
No comments:
Post a Comment