Soren Schmidt is a Project Researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, read more here ...with President Assad at the helm, which one will it be?
1 comment:
Anonymous
said...
It could be either. If Bashar's regime collapses then one should expect an Islamic Revolution type of situation to take place. However, it will not be with the Muslim Brothers, who are quite discredited in the region except in Palestine (Hamas). In Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, they have cooperated with government. Even in Egypt, they have refrained from going all out in the streets to topple the regime, who continues to harass them and gives therefore some legitimacy. On the other hand, Assad does not carry with him the baggage of his father (Hama massacre and the heavy handed presence of Syrian troops in Lebanon). He is an agent of change albeit at a very slow pace. He does not want to rock the boat and is easing out the nomenclature slowly. The latter is very powerful. A smart US policy will engage him. Attacking him will make him even stronger. His slow pace of change will be acceptable to the Syrian people as long as he continues to advocate a hard line against US interventionist policies in the region, and as long as he is perceived of supporting the resistance in Lebanon, Palestine,and Iraq. He is very close to Nasrallah and both are probably among the most reasonable people in the region and who do have legitimacy with their people. THe next US administration will be very well served by engaging them both truthfully and consistently. They will be surprised at the results that they may get. BUt this means that the Administration will have to be even handed, in action as well as in statements. THe days when a simple pronouncement by the WH or State would be deemed enough to alter course of events in the region are long gone. BUt the Bush Adm has not discovered that yet. Arabs (population) are quite reasonable and have a strong sense of justice. THey will never, never accept a solution that is deemed unfair to their cause. Will the next US Adm. do that? Food for thought and affaire a suivre!
1 comment:
It could be either. If Bashar's regime collapses then one should expect an Islamic Revolution type of situation to take place. However, it will not be with the Muslim Brothers, who are quite discredited in the region except in Palestine (Hamas). In Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, they have cooperated with government. Even in Egypt, they have refrained from going all out in the streets to topple the regime, who continues to harass them and gives therefore some legitimacy.
On the other hand, Assad does not carry with him the baggage of his father (Hama massacre and the heavy handed presence of Syrian troops in Lebanon). He is an agent of change albeit at a very slow pace. He does not want to rock the boat and is easing out the nomenclature slowly. The latter is very powerful. A smart US policy will engage him. Attacking him will make him even stronger. His slow pace of change will be acceptable to the Syrian people as long as he continues to advocate a hard line against US interventionist policies in the region, and as long as he is perceived of supporting the resistance in Lebanon, Palestine,and Iraq.
He is very close to Nasrallah and both are probably among the most reasonable people in the region and who do have legitimacy with their people.
THe next US administration will be very well served by engaging them both truthfully and consistently. They will be surprised at the results that they may get. BUt this means that the Administration will have to be even handed, in action as well as in statements. THe days when a simple pronouncement by the WH or State would be deemed enough to alter course of events in the region are long gone. BUt the Bush Adm has not discovered that yet. Arabs (population) are quite reasonable and have a strong sense of justice. THey will never, never accept a solution that is deemed unfair to their cause. Will the next US Adm. do that?
Food for thought and affaire a suivre!
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