Tuesday, February 5, 2008

An Iran-Hezbollah Schism?

From Steve Clemons, here "...Hezbollah's self-declaration of restraint may be suspect, but its sense of geopolitical independence is worth evaluating. It suggests a few important takeaways to consider...................First, in the event of an attack on Iran, it plans to immediately attack Israel no matter who attacks them indicating their strategic rationale is to expand the conflict believing it to be in their interest. This should concern Israel when Iran is betting the table that the region rallies to it regardless of Israeli involvement..............................Second, conflict expansion to the Levant theater might be avoidable if Hezbollah is denied certain incentives to enter the fray. .........................Third, Hezbollah must be treated as an authentic Lebanese political actor rather than an agent of Iran. Coming to terms with this might require us to modify our approach to Lebanese "democracy," Hezbollah's role in government, the parameters of a political/power-sharing arrangement, and perhaps even our intransigent and sometimes obtuse management of the Hariri trial.........................Fourth and as a corollary to the third, given Hezbollah's independence (or at least the desired appearance of it), the hydra of Iran-Syria-Hezbollah-Hamas might actually be picked apart. On one hand they cannot be separated in terms of the influence and impact they have on each other and the region at large. But at the same time, a "divide and conquer" strategy (like former Secretary Jim Baker's "flip Syria" approach) seems feasible and best served by disaggregating them as political actors with distinctive interests..."

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