STATE Official : "Hariri will be Prime Misister, but not necessarily a Good Prime Minister"

Excerpts from the Middle East Policy Survey:

"... US officials bristle at the lack of cooperation fromSaudi Arabia. Although the Saudis have recently agreed to openan embassy in Baghdad, not only do they refuse to help the Maliki government, they are not even willing to assist in US efforts to woo tribal leaders in Anbar province, say well-placed USofficials. "The Saudis have their heads in the sand," dead panned one State Department official this week. [According to one well informed source, Saudi King Abdullah refuses to evendiscuss Iraq with US officials]..."

"... Few expect the United Nations Security Council to even takeup a third resolution this year. With International Atomic Energy Chief (IAEA) Mohammed el-Baradei due to report to the council in mid November, few see the politically adept el-Baradei providing any impetus for stronger actions. Top US officials are convinced that el-Baradei has concluded that it is too late to stop Iran's nuclear enrichment program. And empowered by his correct assessment of Iraq's pre-war weapons program (as well as the Nobel Prize his organization received for getting it right), el-Baradei is a formidable opponent for the Administration..."

"... Even the designation of Iran's "al Quds" military organization as "terrorist" has brought unforeseen problems. With al-Quds operating its own fleet of power boats and the like,British and US commanders with responsibility for patrollingPersian Gulf waters fear that new "rules of engagement" could lead to military confrontation. In fact, a number of analysts believe that the only way the US and Iran could wind up in a major military engagement is as a result of al-Quds actions..."

"... Annapolis "would be just a `photo op' without the Saudis." Some Administrationanalysts expect, in the end, the Saudis will come, although theyfear their representative will be a lower level official thanForeign Minister, Prince Saud. Still, as one cynicalAdministration insider said last week, "The time couldn't bebetter for the Arabs to try to help us work things out. Afterall what better time than between two wars?"

"... US policy towards Lebanonconstitutes a glaring exception to the well thought outapproaches to the major three Middle East issues. This casualattitude was most recently on display with the visit toWashington earlier this month by Saad Hariri,... On his visit here, Hariri, seen by Washington (and apparently himself) as a future Prime Minister["He will be Prime Minister," says one State Department official. "Not necessarily a good Prime Minister."] was lavishly praised by the President and other top Administration officials. But in subsequent weeks, it has become apparent that while the Administration is prepared to offer generous vocal support, it is not willing to back up its rhetoric with action. As one veteran diplomat put it last week, in a cynical twist on former Secretary of State Powell's famous line about American responsibility for Iraq after the invasion, "If you break Lebanon, it's broken."