From Information International Consultants (Jawad & Zeina Adra) comes this great essay on Lebanon's Confessional System[ [Lebanon in the XXI Century: Fall of Maronite Nation & Rise of Sunni and Shia'a]. (Conclusions)
* In 2006, the percentage of Maronites in Lebanon shrank to 19%, while that of the Christians to 30%. The number of Christians in Lebanon will reach a low of 11% in 2081, while that of the Sunnis & Shia'as will reach 36.6% and 44.8% respectively.
* 60.8% of Lebanon's Population is below 40 years old, and Muslims represent 70% of that segment.
* The current political crisis heads towards an implosion of sorts: In case the stalemate produces 2 governments (and perhaps 2 Presidents) Cantonization could become a "reality".
5 comments:
Any link?
Thanks
where is this essay ? who are these consultants and what are their credentials ?
salem. but try tis:http://www.iimonthly.com/
and
http://www.information-international.com/
While the numbers about the present give an interesting approximation, and judging from other numbers floating around seem to be the lower end numbers for Christians. This sentence :"The number of Christians in Lebanon will reach a low of 11% in 2081, while that of the Sunnis & Shia'as will reach 36.6% and 44.8% respectively." is utterly meaningless mathematical dribble. but then i am probably just stating the obvious.
gpc, thanks for the link.
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