Matt Yglesias (here) commenting and more, on a WSJ piece by European neocon, Josef Joffee, here. Joffe argues that all the follwing calamities will happen if and when the US withdraws from Iraq: (did he forget anything, like would the separatists get the upper hand in French Caledonia?)
- "Iran advances to No. 1, completing its nuclear-arms program undeterred and unhindered."
- The Sunni Arab states "are drawn into the Khomeinist orbit."
- "[E]mboldened jihadi forces shift to Afghanistan and turn it again into a bastion of Terror International"
- "Syria reclaims Lebanon"
- "Hezbollah and Hamas . . . resume their war against Israel"
- "Russia . . . rebuilds its anti-Western alliances"
2 comments:
the headline is exactly correct...
the only two things that have anything remotely to do with Iraq are maybe the Sunni thing, and the jihadists (from Afghanistan) going back to Afghanistan... (and isn't ANYONE talking about America leaving THERE)
-has Iraq deterred Iran IN ANY WAY from ANYTHING??? No.
-the Hizbollah war occurred DURING the Iraq war... Hamas has never stopped... (all as the headline says)
-about Russia: were they not playing war with CHINA last week??? aren't they not building IRAN a nuke facility?
Futurology is tricky business, and needs to be done with care. Opinions about the future are easy to express; it's the methods we use and the rigor of our analysis that gives those opinions whatever value they may have. We could think carefully about the impact our actions are likely to have on events in the Mideast. Enough methods are being developed--scenario analysis, system dynamics, game theory, complexity theory-based concepts--to enhance our view of the murky future considerably, but it takes the rare quantities patience and an open mind.
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