Steve Clemons of the WashingtonNote says: "I have confidence in this official, and am certain that the information shared reflects the collective analysis of his particular country -- though I have no idea whether American, Israeli, or other intelligence operations elsewhere share this perspective. And to be clear, I am in no position to validate one way or another the truthfulness of this narrative."
This is what the intelligence official recounted:
"The abduction of the sailors was an operation that was animated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The political fortunes of both have been falling this past year. Ahmadinejad lost key elections in December that not only marked his decline but marked the rise, to some degree, of political forces allied with former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani.
The abduction was designed to secure domestic political leverage for Ahmadinejad and the al Quds forces, whose budgets have been stagnant despite the rise of national income from increasing oil prices.
According to my source, Ayatollah Khamenei was furious when informed of the abduction. Iran nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani reportedly threatened to resign his post if the sailors were not released. And Rafsanjani -- behind the scenes -- "heaped scorn" on Ahmadinejad for the action he and the al Quds force triggered.
Khamenei ordered the sailors to be released and allowed Ahmadinejad to be the deliverer of the news -- on his own terms -- in a way that would allow him not to appear rebuked and would allow him to save political face.
According to the intelligence official, "Rafsanjani's crowd has become marginally stronger -- and Ahmadinejad significantly weaker -- which makes the latter even more dangerous and unpredictable."
I was also told that Ahmadinejad's chief rival politically right now is the current Mayor of Tehran and former presidential aspirant, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf.
Ahmadinejad tried to get Qalibaf out of the country by appointing him Iran's Ambassador to Venezuela, and Qalibaf refused the appointment. The intelligence official speaking to me told me that Khamenei is maneuvering Qalibaf to knock Ahmadinejad out of the presidential seat.
Again, I can't validate these tidbits shared above. But I do find them potentially important because it provides to those who don't follow the close details of Iran's theocratic politics some sense that despite Khamenei's seeming strong control of the country and its machinery -- particularly the Iranian Revolutionary Guard -- that there is instability of leadership and episodes of rogue autonomy."
More soon.
The abduction was designed to secure domestic political leverage for Ahmadinejad and the al Quds forces, whose budgets have been stagnant despite the rise of national income from increasing oil prices.
According to my source, Ayatollah Khamenei was furious when informed of the abduction. Iran nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani reportedly threatened to resign his post if the sailors were not released. And Rafsanjani -- behind the scenes -- "heaped scorn" on Ahmadinejad for the action he and the al Quds force triggered.
Khamenei ordered the sailors to be released and allowed Ahmadinejad to be the deliverer of the news -- on his own terms -- in a way that would allow him not to appear rebuked and would allow him to save political face.
According to the intelligence official, "Rafsanjani's crowd has become marginally stronger -- and Ahmadinejad significantly weaker -- which makes the latter even more dangerous and unpredictable."
I was also told that Ahmadinejad's chief rival politically right now is the current Mayor of Tehran and former presidential aspirant, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf.
Ahmadinejad tried to get Qalibaf out of the country by appointing him Iran's Ambassador to Venezuela, and Qalibaf refused the appointment. The intelligence official speaking to me told me that Khamenei is maneuvering Qalibaf to knock Ahmadinejad out of the presidential seat.
Again, I can't validate these tidbits shared above. But I do find them potentially important because it provides to those who don't follow the close details of Iran's theocratic politics some sense that despite Khamenei's seeming strong control of the country and its machinery -- particularly the Iranian Revolutionary Guard -- that there is instability of leadership and episodes of rogue autonomy."
More soon.
2 comments:
Your blog is very interesting!
Please, send me the photo of your pc desk and the link of your blog.
I'll publish on my blog!.
Thanks Frank
EMAIL: pcdesktop1@gmail.com
unless you heard this analysis from an IRGC insider- i highly doubt the interpretation's accuracy...
iran is acutely aware that IDF/US is itching for a casus belli to attack them- the massive naval exercises in the Gulf had just concluded off shore when the soldier incident transpired. iran/hezb learned from Leb war that any pretext to attack would do. that iran's pres would stage this to invite US bombing is illogical. does not make sense.
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