ICG: "Turkey should work with Iran to de-escalate foreign involvement in the Syrian war .."

 International Crisis Group

"...While Turkey has successfully contained internal sectarian unrest, its Syria policy is highly unpopular domestically, not least with its large Alevi and Kurdish popu­lations. Feeling betrayed by Western failure to live up to promises of intervention or more support, Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has re­calibrated its foreign policy in the past year. Its narrative has changed to include jihadi elements of the militant opposition in the growing list of security threats from Syria, along with the regime and its agents. In 2013, it reversed its all-out objection to engaging the Syrian Kurds’ Democratic Union Party (PYD), linked to Turkey’s insurgent Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and in March 2014, it let UN aid convoys cross into PYD-controlled areas when Syria finally opened one border crossing for UN humanitarian aid. In the bigger picture, Turkey wants to avoid prolonged military entanglement, but violent border clashes and occasional aerial confrontations with the regime increase risks of an escalation. Even so, extensive Turkish military intervention is unlikely without at least an international mandate and backing.The AKP leadership’s resolve to see Syrian President Bashar al-Assad gone stays strong, as does its support for the mainstream Syrian opposition. It hosts rebels and their families in well-built refugee camps, allows political and military opposition bodies to convene on its soil and gives logistical and material assistance. But Turkey has never been a main backer of the militant opposition inside Syria, and Gulf actors have gained more political influence. Still, involvement with the opposition’s main political body, the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, helped garner support for Geneva II peace talks and ensure a degree of Kurdish representation. Turkey should use its leverage as a transit ground for supplies to rebel groups in northern Syria to encourage their compliance with international humanitarian law and non-sectarian practices. By maintaining open communication with regional counterparts, including Iran, Turkey should work reciprocally to de-escalate foreign involvement in the Syrian war and build an environment more conducive to peace...., ...  Recommendations To the government of Turkey: 

. Continue directly engaging Iran and other regional actors to find a political solution in Syria, including encouraging reciprocal steps from regional counterparts to achieve a mutual reduction in their involvement in the conflict and eventually end proxy warfare. 

. Invigorate recent efforts to demonstrate greater sectarian and ethnic neutrality in foreign policy. 

. Show zero tolerance to border breaches by jihadi elements, whether from or into Syria...."

Lebanese Army & Syrian al Qaeda clash again

Affrontements entre soldats libanais et Syriens armés dans le jurd de Ersal

"Unaccounted for"

"... The United States has spent $103 billion to rebuild Afghan roads, bridges, schools, hospitals and other infrastructure since 2002, more than in any previous overseas reconstruction effort.Almost $64 billion of the aid has come in the last four years, creating a deluge of money that the U.S. government can’t track and which the fragile Afghan economy can’t absorb, the report said. As a result, it said, large sums of aid are unaccounted for and major projects have not been finished or were done poorly..."

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/04/30/225990/us-report-offers-grim-portrait.html?sp=/99/100/&ihp=1#storylink=cpy

Lebanon fails to elect new president - again

 Al Jazeera English

Good news from Libya

"TRIPOLI (Reuters) - Gunmen stormed Libya's parliament on Tuesday and started shooting, forcing lawmakers to abandon a vote on the country's next prime minister, a parliamentary spokesman said...."

Erdogan sees quick normalization with Israel

 | AFP.com

"... Erdogan said he is prepared to normalize ties with Israel within days or weeks Erdogan, speaking on US broadcaster PBS late Monday, said US President Barack Obama was instrumental in arranging a phone call between the leaders of Israel and Turkey, which have been at odds since a 2010 Israeli commando raid on a Gaza-bound flotilla of aid ships left nine pro-Palestinian Turkish activists dead..."

Let Us Now Praise Murderous Men; Lebanese Presidential Candidates, Considered

"... Reading and watching Geagea give press statements on his candidacy, I remember the space of terror he used to occupy for myself and my friends in Tariq al-Jadidah. I remember watching mortars explode from a window with a view of the northern coast with my grade school classmates during the Aoun-Geagea war. I remember a year spent in a mountainous Beirut suburb, away from school and from an apartment untenably close to “the Green Line.” Today, I try to imagine what a Palestinian in Lebanon thinks when she sees Geagea on TV confidently lay out why he should be president. Does her heartbreak as one by one, journalists fail to ask Geagea about his involvement in war time massacres? Has her heart been broken too many times in Lebanon, and does she simply change the channel? No one asks Geagea, or his rival Gemeyyel, about their wartime alliances with Israel, or their complicity in the siege of West Beirut, or their wars with rival Maronite leaders that left thousands dead and maimed..."

Too little, too late!

"... The small number of BGM-71 missiles, about two decades old and hardly better than similar Russian and French models acquired by the rebels from allies and the black market over the past year, will not change the game in the fight against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the fighters say. Three years into the war, the government has pushed opposition forces out of many of their most important strongholds, deferring their hopes of victory indefinitely..."

London looking to testaure diplomatic ties with Tehran

"(Reuters) - A senior British diplomat made a brief visit to Tehran on Monday for talks with officials on the strained ties between the two countries and on Iran's nuclear program, Iran's official IRNA news agency reported.Earlier, IRNA said Tehran and London were looking to restore full diplomatic ties, all but severed after a 2011 raid on Britain's embassy in the Iranian capital..."

Jordan reels from week of violence in Maan

Al Jazeera English

"Amman, Jordan - Residents of Jordan's southern city of Maan were attempting to recover after a week of violence, sparked by the alleged killing of a civilian by security forces on Tuesday.After reports of "relative calm" in the city, located 200km south of the capital Amman, police on Sunday fired tear gas and guns near an elementary school in the Iskan neighbourhood, reportedly searching for wanted persons.Dozens were arrested during the raid, local residents told Al Jazeera...."

Kerry: Israel risks becoming apartheid state

"..."A two-state solution will be clearly underscored as the only real alternative. Because a unitary state winds up either being an apartheid state with second class citizens - or it ends up being a state that destroys the capacity of Israel to be a Jewish state," said Kerry. .."

Ukraine funnels light arms to Jihadis in Syria via Germany

"Der Spiegel has just published a report on the funneling of Ukranian arms to jihadists in Syria via Germany. The following is a translation of the German text by Emily-Dische Becker:"According to information obtained by Der Spiegel, a Ukrainian state enterprise is delivering rifles to Germany. The German federal government allegedly doesn’t know what is happening with the weapons. Are they being used in the war in Syria?According to information obtained by SPIEGEL, the Ukraine is apparently doing arms deals through Germany. As the German Foreign Office acknowledged in response to a request by Die Linke (the Left party), the Ukrainian state company Ukroboronprom has been exporting semi-automatic rifles of the SKS Simonov variety to Germany. These imports were approved by the responsible government agencies.
The Foreign Office however is concealing where the weapons are ending up in Germany: The delivery terms of the German contract partner are “a business and a trade secret.” The rifles, it says evasively, are being delivered to Germany “for the purpose of modification.” The American Jamestown Foundation think-tank, which is said to enjoy strong historical ties to U.S. intelligence agencies, believes that the weapons are being delivered from Germany to Syrian rebels. Jamestown estimates the delivery of 54,000 small arms in the years 2011 and 2012. These could have been used for ” covert operations ” in Syria.
The federal government is aware of the suspicions of the Americans, but does not want to investigate them. As stated in their response to the Left party’s inquiry, they have “no findings of [their] own on this matter.” Neither the German army, nor the military counterintelligence agency, nor the federal intelligence service (BND) are involved in the purchase of weapons [the federal government claims].The Left party’s expert for foreign affairs, Sevim Dagdelen, is alarmed by the government’s ignorance: “It is scandalous that the federal government can not convey anything about the whereabouts of these weapons. ” To make matter worse, Berlin “can not dispel the suspicion that these weapons have been passed on to Islamist holy warriors to cause a regime change in Syria. “

Armed Kurds kidnaps two Turkish soldiers

 report

"... The abduction took place late Saturday, after the jailed leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) issued a statement warning of a possible return to violence..."

The SNC & Slaughter reading from the same script!

"... “I think a lot can be done vis-a-vis the Russians,” he said. “We see an opportunity in telling our friends that, 'Hey, you could get back at Putin in Syria.'”

Pro-Western repression in Ukraine ...

"... When the protesters in Bahrain or Palestine or Ukraine are killed by a pro-US government, they always manage to die in 'clashes"  Yet, armed protesters are innocent civilians when killed by a government that is not aligned with the US. ..."

Here's why Putin will not blink first!

"Introducing the quadrennial diplomacy review on 22^nd April, Secretary of State Kerry commented that contemporary diplomacy is “more difficult than the Cold War.” From conversations we hold with senior Administration figures, we certainly get the impression that US foreign policy decision-makers currently feel that the international deck is stacked against them. Symptomatic of this sentiment is the fact that as President Obama continues his visit to East Asia, much media comment has focused on doubts about the credibility of the US global posture. As one senior State Department strategist commented privately to us: “Little is going right. We cannot budge Putin on Ukraine, Asian trade talks are stalled, the Middle East peace process is on life support, Assad is winning in Syria, the North Koreans are threatening a nuclear test. We do not have the means or the will to respond to horrendous massacres in South Sudan and the Central African Republic.”  A new test of US will power will present itself in the coming days when, if as expected, the Russians do not back down over Ukraine and a new set of sanctions is announced. There is some tough talk in Washington about how broad and painful these will be, but Treasury officials tell us that sanctions that both damage Russian interests while sparing pain from US corporations are hard to find. The final sanctions may turn out to have plenty of loopholes...."

Haass: "The US' push for regime change has brought about “cures” worse than the disease"

 Haass .... 

"Yet history shows time and time again that it can be difficult to oust a leader, and even when it is not, it can be extremely difficult to help bring about a stable, alternative authority that is better in terms of American preferences. The result is that the United States often finds itself with an uncomfortable choice: Either it must back off its declared goals, which makes it look feckless and encourages widespread defiance, or it has to make good on its aims, which would require enormous investments in blood, treasure, and time rarely justified by the interests or results, ....,   ... The result is that Assad has not gone and the principal opposition is worse, from an American perspective; it is only a matter of time before the United States will likely have to swallow the bitter pill of tolerating Assad while supporting acceptable opposition elements against the jihadis. Negotiating efforts that ignore realities on the ground will continue to bear little if any fruit...."

Jordan anti-terrorism law sparks concern

Al Jazeera English

"... Jameel Nemri, a member of the Jordanian Parliament and a strong opponent of the amended law, said it would improperly expand the role of Jordan's State Security Court: "Hacking websites and looting are already addressed in Jordan's penal code. [Such] civil crimes are not acts of terrorism and those allegedly accused of any should be tried in civil court," Nemri told Al Jazeera. Jordanian officials, meanwhile, say the law will help to protect the country's stability and prevent young people from falling victim to extremism. Government spokesman Mohamad al-Momani previously cited concerns about extremist groups in Syria taking their fight to Jordanian territory ..."

Jordan anti-terrorism law sparks concern

Al Jazeera English

"... Jameel Nemri, a member of the Jordanian Parliament and a strong opponent of the amended law, said it would improperly expand the role of Jordan's State Security Court: "Hacking websites and looting are already addressed in Jordan's penal code. [Such] civil crimes are not acts of terrorism and those allegedly accused of any should be tried in civil court," Nemri told Al Jazeera. Jordanian officials, meanwhile, say the law will help to protect the country's stability and prevent young people from falling victim to extremism. Government spokesman Mohamad al-Momani previously cited concerns about extremist groups in Syria taking their fight to Jordanian territory ..."

"Town by town, 'doomed' Assad closes in on Syria Victory"

SundayTimes: 

"A YEAR ago, following a string of victories, Syria’s rebels fought their way so close to the capital, Damascus, that President Bashar al-Assad’s regime appeared doomed.Many commentators predicted his fall within days; others gave him only weeks to survive. Yet 12 months later the tide has turned dramatically in favour of the Syrian president, who has outmanoeuvred his opponents both at home and abroad.
In the past few days, a string of villages and towns in the strategically important Qalamoun region have fallen to government forces — among them the Christian town of Maaloula, ... Homs, once known as “the capital of the revolution”, is on the verge of falling to a Syrian army offensive.... Assad predicted that the main battles could be over by the end of the year. “This is a turning point in the crisis,” he predicted.
Assad’s closest ally, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, went further, saying the Syrian leader no longer faced the prospect of being overthrown.
What has changed in the course of the year? Based on extensive interviews with senior sources close to Hezbollah’s military command in Syria and briefings from high-ranking army officers, I am convinced the answer lies in the decision by Nasrallah and Assad to throw Hezbollah into the fray, thus changing the course of the war....
There was further danger to Hezbollah as jihadist rebels began to discuss the prospect of extending their holy war to Lebanon. This would have put them in a powerful position to strangle the group by severing its supply lines from Syria. As a source close to Hezbollah described it to me recently: “Syria is Hezbollah’s lungs.” He added: “It doesn’t matter how many weapons Hezbollah keeps in Lebanon. In any war with Israel, their stocks would be depleted. Resupply is vital.”
By early last year, 70% of Syria’s territory had slipped from Assad’s control.... Assad had been leaning heavily on the advice of his generals, who were trained in conventional warfare, and were ill-suited to a guerrilla struggle. It was time for a wholesale change of tactics, he decided, and that could come only from Hezbollah.
Nasrallah went to Tehran to seek religious guidance from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, who gave his blessing to sending fighters. Khamenei said it was a religious obligation to fight the jihadist rebels.
Nasrallah’s military advisers insisted that Syria’s army, reinforced by his men, had to go on the offensive. With the backing of Russia and Iran, a strategy was formulated to drive the rebels out of Damascus and win back control of the strategic corridor that links the Syrian capital to the Mediterranean coast.
Initially Hezbollah said its intervention would be confined to retaking the Syrian border city of Qusair and defending the Lebanese villages bordering Syria.
But Hezbollah’s fighters had underestimated their enemy. They soon found themselves in danger of being bottled up by rebel forces and realised they needed to capture far more territory than they had envisaged. This was now a full-scale war for them.
First, Qusair had to be taken in order to block the flow of rebels and weapons from Lebanon into rebel-held Homs.
Hezbollah sent several thousand fighters to the front while the Syrian army provided artillery and air support. In a sign of how closely they were now working together, Hezbollah was granted access to Syria’s military command operations centre for the first time.
Qusair proved a vital learning curve for Hezbollah, fighting far from its own terrain. The organisation was taken by surprise by the rebels’ prowess. In the first few days of battle, it took heavy casualties and was forced to regroup and change tactics.
After three weeks of heavy fighting, in which much of the town was destroyed by shell and rocket fire, Qusair was finally taken back into the hands of the regime last June.
The scale and ferocity of the battle persuaded Hezbollah’s commanders they needed to widen their strategic objectives. Homs, a rebel stronghold, had to be captured in order to choke off the rebels’ supply lines into Lebanon.
Today Homs no longer poses a threat to either Hezbollah or the regime, although it has a rump of rebel fighters, blamed for a car bomb outside a mosque on Friday that killed at least 14 people....
In the next stage of their plan, the Syrian army and Hezbollah moved their attention to Qalamoun, the region where it made significant gains last week.... Hezbollah fighters spearheaded the attack after the Syrian army had softened up the rebels by pounding their positions with artillery, rocket launchers and mortars...
Despite the triumphs at Maaloula and Qalamoun, an all-out victory for Assad is still far from assured. Rebel brigades have made significant inroads in the north in recent weeks. Last month they captured Kassab, the sole remaining government-controlled border post with Turkey, cementing their hold on Syria’s northern border.
Though Kassab has little strategic importance, the well co-ordinated attack appears to have taken Assad’s military by surprise...Despite the setbacks, Hezbollah has emerged as a bigger and more influential player in the region as a result of its intervention..."