Saturday, August 25, 2012

'e tu Economist?' [Syria's rebels are 'failing to win hearts & minds', 'unorganized', 'irrelevant' & 'at loggerheads with each other' ]

"... A MONTH after rebel forces launched a blazing attempt to capture Aleppo, Syria’s second city, they are starting to wilt. The regime claims to have routed them from their main stronghold in the Salaheddin district. Clashes continue in the southwest of the city and around the airport, but the best that rebel commanders can now hope to achieve is to draw the regime into a quagmire.
Whole streets have been reduced to rubble in the country’s commercial hub of 2.5m people. This is hardly the outcome the rebels were looking for, but it is not surprising either. Commanders have long acknowledged that they find it difficult to hold cities..... With little more than harsh words to fear from the outside world, the regime keeps using ever more powerful weaponry........... Many Syrians—as well as outside observers—conclude that the rebels overreached by taking the fight to Aleppo......
Part of the problem is that the rebels are failing to win hearts and minds among the urban middle class in Aleppo. The same was true of the failed attempt to take the capital, Damascus, in July. .....
Meanwhile, the political opposition is as divided as ever. Much to its dismay, America’s secretary of state, Hillary Clinton snubbed the Syrian National Council, a group of exiles, during her recent visit to Turkey. The group is “on the verge of irrelevance”, says a Western diplomat..... 
Competition for resources and personal feuds have already led some groups to fall out. The two main rebel forces in the Homs area, the Khaled Ibn Walid Brigade and Farouq, both work out of the rebellious town of Rastan, but their leaders are at loggerheads...."

'Salafi Crescent' challenges "Shiite Crescent' as 'Most anti-West'!

"... WASHINGTON - .....A new Salafi Crescent, radiating from the Persian Gulf sheikdoms into the Levant and North Africa, is one of the most underappreciated and disturbing byproducts of the Arab revolts. In varying degrees, these populist puritans are moving into the political space once occupied by jihadi militants, who are now less in vogue.......  Now, as then, some Islamists are more hazardous to Western interests and values than others. The Salafis are most averse to minority and women’s rights.
A common denominator among disparate Salafi groups is inspiration and support from Wahhabis, a puritanical strain of Sunni Islam from Saudi Arabia. Not all Saudis are Wahhabis. Not all Salafis are Wahhabis, either. But Wahhabis are basically all Salafis. And many Arabs, particularly outside the sparsely populated Gulf, suspect that Wahhabis are trying to seize the future by aiding and abetting the region’s newly politicized Salafis — as they did 30 years ago by funding the South Asian madrassas that produced Afghanistan’s Taliban.
Salafis go much further in restricting political and personal life than the larger and more modern Islamist parties that have won electoral pluralities in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco since October. For most Arabs, the rallying cry is justice, both economic and political. For Salafis, it is also about a virtue that is inflexible and enforceable....
Salafis are deepening the divide between Sunni and Shiite Muslims and challenging the “Shiite Crescent,” a term coined by Jordan’s King Abdullah in 2004, during the Iraq war, to describe an arc of influence from Shiite-dominated Iran to its allies in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Today, these rival crescents risk turning countries in transition into battlefields over the region’s future.
The Salafis represent a painful long-term conundrum for the West. Their goals are the most anti-Western of any Islamist parties.
American policy recently had its own awakening after 60 years of support for autocratic rulers. The United States opted to embrace people power and electoral change in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Yemen. Yet Washington still embraces authoritarian Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia, tolerating their vague promises of reform and even pledging the United States’ might to protect them.
Foreign policy should be nuanced, whether because of oil needs or to counter threats from Iran. But there is something dreadfully wrong with tying America’s future position in the region to the birthplace and bastion of Salafism and its warped vision of a new order."

'The Non-Aligned Movement summit in Tehran will, US officials concede, allow Iran to claim that it is not as isolated as Western leaders claim'

"... With polls continuing to show a very tight race, Romney will be intent in adhering close to his economic message and playing down less favorable issues like social questions and foreign policy. On the latter, we expect strong criticism of Obama as weak on defense, shortchanging the military, over-conciliatory to Russia and China and insufficiently supportive of Israel. The Obama administration is, we hear from contacts in the campaign team, more than ready to counter the Republicans in this field. On August 22nd Secretary of Defense Panetta offered an expansive vision of US military commitments around the world, including the expansion of the existing US missile defense system to further sites in Southeast Asia. He committed the US to defend freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and to retain sufficient military resources to fight and win two simultaneous wars. Administration officials also believe that, despite some Republican criticism that US forces are withdrawing from Afghanistan prematurely, they have the ear of the country in drawing down the US military presence. Military officials continue to be worried about so-called “green-on-blue” incidents but otherwise voice public confidence that they have the situation under control. Privately, both State and Pentagon analysts are much less confident, but Afghanistan attracts little attention in the political debate. Next week’s Non Aligned Movement summit in Tehran will, US officials concede, allow Iran to claim that it is not as isolated as Western leaders claim. Despite media reports that Iran us accelerating its nuclear program, we see little evidence of any change in US policy of giving priority to sanctions. Syria remains a higher priority...."

It was only yesterday ...

... that many in Lebanon, especially in 2006' when Israel aggressed Lebanon, started saying that they have had it with Lebanon having to pay the dearest in lives & treasure in the Arab-Israeli conflict, ... and even some went so far as asking the rhetorical question, "seriously, what did Israel do to us?", totally discarding the monumental & many decades' old plight of the Palestinian People, & the cruel history of Lebanon's experience with that usurping huge settlement called israel... 
Basically, they (Culture of Life) were saying that Lebanon is suffering economically from Israeli aggressions BUT mostly, from the insolence of 'some' (Culture of Death) who decided to stand up and resist. The sectarian schism between the 'moderate pragmatists' & the 'insolent resisters' saw the most major plates shift since the War on Iraq!
TODAY, the SAME 'moderate pragmatists' who were all about 'Lebanon First', Love Of Life, reconstruction, business opportunities & 'stability-uber alles', have taken upon themselves to bring down the regime of a neighboring Arab country, even if that risked generating spasms of regional & sectarian clashes. 
 'Life-Lover in Tripoli'

"Is relying on Saudi Arabia in times of war a smart tradition?"

"... But relying on Saudi Arabia, while politically convenient, is not without risks. The most obvious is that the Saudis have come under increased pressure -- both internal and external -- as a result of their longstanding oil-for-security alliance with Washington. Iran has warned its fellow Gulf producer not to make up the slack resulting from American and European sanctions, threatening direct retaliation if it does. Saudi Arabia isn't taking any chances. In recent months, it has arrested prominent Shiite dissidents -- always suspected of possible ties to Iran -- and doubled the number of Saudi National Guard forces in the Eastern Province, home to the vast majority its 2 million-plus Shiite citizens as well as the close to 90 percent of its oil production...."

Friday, August 24, 2012

'Pour encourager les autres!"

"... Yes.  The Syrian forces are methodically searching areas that they retake and are killing supporters of the rebellion.  Why are they not hiding the bodies?  They want those they do not kill to see the bodies and they don't mind if the Washington Post wants to talk about it either.  This is 'pour encourager les autres."  The message is that this is what happens when you take up armes against the government.  An additional message is that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are impotent in the face of the defeat of their proteges.... Last night on the "Newshour" a Saudi stringer for "Nightline" was interviewed on the subject of the war.  He had recently traveled around insurgent held north Syria,  He commented that the Syrian Army was "demorailised and very cowardly? because they advance a few blocks in a town and then halt.  This fellow was clearly "boosting" for his side but in fact the SA is advancing from phase line to phase line in order to avoid an uneven front line that would be vulnerable to counter-attacks...."

"La Belle au Bois Dormant": Lebanon's government

'Shoo? "... Information Minister Walid al-Daouq said after a meeting for the council that the media outlets that had broadcast the news of the death of the 11 kidnapped Lebanese pilgrims had offered their apologies .....“A pledge was made to objectively handle developments,” he added..."
'Shoo... "...the cabinet did not neglect the case of the Lebanese hostages from the first day..." (It just took the 'military wing' of a Lebanese clan to remind the government that they were kidnapped!) 

Former Commander of Egyptian 'Special-Ops': 'An Israeli unit was involved in the Rafah terrorist attack!'

أحد مؤسسى العمليات الخاصة بمصر يكشف لـ"الأهرام العربي": وحدة إسرائيلية خاصة متورطة بأحداث رفح - بوابة الأهرام

'As long as al Qaeda serves US-israeli interests it can burn Syria & its people!'

There's a million way to spin that title, but the message (Gambil's) behind it remains eerily clear: 'America should join al Qaeda in Syria to score against Iran!'
"friday-lunch-club": "We should root for al Qaedaesque Syrian islamists...: 'Plenty of time to tame the beast' BRILLIANT! "...  Of course, Syrian Islamists are no friends of the United States -- merely the enemies o...

Not even a wood blister!

Maher al Assad

Snipers terrorizing Aleppo and now, Tripoli

Samir Geagea': "I am not a warlord!"

Reminder: The Middle East FIRST Democracy: 1951' Iran

'Mossadegh'

Ryan Crocker arrested for drunk driving & hit and run

I vividly remember a disconcerted Crocker best when he rushed to see us and tell us that we should know that "Siniora is OUR man!" (OUR is the US!) This of course, happened when the late Rafik Hariri was Prime Minister of Lebanon
"Recently departed U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker was arrested earlier this month for driving under the influence and hit and run in his hometown of Spokane, WA. Washington state troopers placed Crocker under arrest the evening of Aug. 14 after he allegedly fled the scene of an accident and registered a blood-alcohol level nearly twice the legal limit, ..."

To the 'French genius': "Imposing even a partial no-fly zone would be tantamount to war, just as arming Syria’s rebels would be an act of war!"

"...What is particularly revealing here is that a “partial” no-fly zone is floated as some sort of non-war action, but a nationwide no-fly zone in Syria would be “tantamount to war.” But of course, imposing a no-fly zone over part of Syria or the whole of it is a matter of quantitative degree rather than qualitative difference. As I explored in a piece for the United States Naval Institute, imposing a no-fly zone in Syria would likely mean conducting intensive Suppression of Enemy Air Defense to destroy Syria’s air defenses and air force. Even a partial no-fly zone would likely require some strikes outside its limits in order to degrade Syrian airfields, early-warning radars and mobile or semi-mobile air defense systems.
Imposing even a partial no-fly zone would be tantamount to war, just as arming Syria’s rebels would be an act of war, and constitute foreign engagement in the Syrian civil war, and their success would rely on the combustible cocktail of passion, reason, and chance that all wars do. The difference between these “time-limited, scope-limited kinetic military actions” and war is ultimately an arbitrary distinction of political language which gives away when either the target or the intervening force, in order to achieve its objectives, escalates force to the point where the label is no longer tenable or useful. ..."

Mohamad, brother of Ayman al Zawahiri is in Syria!

Al Zawahiri is in Syria,(Al Mayadeen)

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Russian Foreign Ministry: '"Russia & Syria's economic relations have developed dynamically"'

MOSCOW, August 23 (Xinhua) -- Some countries' unilateral sanctions against Syria would not hinder Russia's economic cooperation with the Middle East country, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Thursday.
"Unilateral sanctions against Syria imposed by a number of countries, of which Russia is widely known to be critical, are no reason for folding up joint economic programs and other plans," the ministry said in a statement on possible Russian loans to the crisis-torn country.
According to the ministry, Russia and Syria's economic relations have developed dynamically, despite the 18-month crisis in the country.
"Russia's cooperation with Syria in the oil and gas industries, energy, transport and agriculture were discussed during these contacts," the ministry said, taking note of the recent visits by Syrian government delegations.
"It should be noted that financial and investment cooperation, including the granting of loans, is nothing exceptional and is considered in accordance with existing procedures," the ministry said.
In August, Syrian government delegations led by Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Qadri Jamil visited Moscow twice. During the first visit, talks were held with Russian officials and business leaders on ways to alleviate the consequences of Western sanctions against Syria.

French genius: 'Full closure of Syrian airspace is an act of war, but partial closure, is not!'

"... Jean-Yves Le Drian said completely closing Syria's airspace was equivalent to "going to war" and would require a willing international coalition that does not yet exist. The minister, however, told television station France 24 on Thursday that France would participate in such an operation if it followed international legal principles.
For now, though, he suggested that a partial closure — which U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington was considering — should be studied..."

Syrian Army slow paced advances towards establishing a 'Cordon Sanitaire' along the Turkish border

"...State media hailed the recapture by the army of three Christian neighbourhoods in the heart of Aleppo, but clashes between troops and rebel fighters raged in other parts of the city and in the southern belt of Damascus......
Aleppo residents reported heavy exchanges in the heart of the city during the army's recapture of three Christian neighbourhoods seized by the rebels at the weekend.
"We have had the worst two days of our lives," Sonia, the wife of a wealthy businessman in the northern city which is also Syria's commercial capital, told AFP by telephone.
"If our house weren't built like a fortress, we'd all be dead," said the resident of Telal, which the army seized on Wednesday along with Jdeide and Sulamaniyeh.
Jdeide and Telal were once frequented by tourists for their restaurants and handicraft shops but the heavy fighting between troops and fighters has left streets deserted apart from local youths on patrol, residents said.
After more than a month of fighting, the battle for Aleppo continued with fierce clashes and bombardment in other neighbourhoods of the city ..."The army is focusing its actions in the southern areas of Damascus and it is trying to cut off all connection between the city and the neighbouring countryside," he told AFP via Skype.
Nationwide, at least 72 people were killed in violence on Thursday, 44 of them civilians, the Observatory said, adding that a total of 24,495 people had now been killed since the uprising erupted."

SNC/ Sieda: 'No place for Tlas & Hijab in the 'new Syria!'

"...In an exclusive interview with FRANCE 24, Abdulbaset Sieda, the head of the Syrian National Council (a coalition of Syrian opposition groups), said that General Manaf Tlass and former Syrian Prime Minister Riad Hijab would not be part of a future transition government. The two politicians, both previously members of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, recently fled Syria.
Sieda’s remark comes on the heels of his meeting with Tlass in Paris..."