"No Surrender"

Fouad Ajami, one of the earliest and unconditional supporters of the Iraq War, has this predictable OpEd in the WSJ, here, "....Sometimes you can strike deals with your enemies, and that's crucial in wars you can't kill your way out of. So forget all that 'No Surrender' crap and get serious..."

Shaping Lebanon's Future

Bilal Saab writes at the Saban Center/Brookings, here

"...One factor that facilitated the “March 14” bloc’s victory was the gerrymandered electoral law bequeathed by Syria. Lebanese politicians from across the spectrum, and whatever their views of Syria, were happy to operate within the electoral law......Still the governing coalition was also the author of some of its own misfortunes. Led by Saad Hariri, the son of the murdered former Prime Minister, the “March 14” bloc also thwarted the aspirations of all Lebanese calling for a free, democratic and sovereign Lebanon through internal feuding and its inability to come to an accommodation with the opposition.... The problem for the United States is that its experiences in Lebanon have more often than not been unrewarding due to U.S. blunders and miscalculations..... for the United States, Lebanon is also the perfect battlefield for settling scores with its adversaries, namely Iran and Syria. As such, Lebanon is where U.S. idealism and realpolitik meet and often conflict. The result is a shattered country torn between two divergent trends of U.S. foreign policy...."

Egypt's Crises will weaken Government: Eurasia Group

EGYPT: Crises will weaken government
19 March, 2008 (Excerpts)
"....Opposition movements will score political points in the short term as the government finds itself pressured over both the bread crisis and its crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood ahead of the 8 April municipal council elections.... likelihood of political violence, particularly during the elections. Since it instituted significant economic reform, the government has been able to weather political storms with relative ease, but it will come out of this episode weakened, making it harder for authorities to move forward with other reforms.
On the bread crisis
The Egyptian public is growing increasingly impatient with rising food prices. And soaring wheat prices are putting a financial strain on the government, which spends billions on importing wheat for subsidized bread. According to local sources, Egypt, the world's second largest wheat importer, will spend almost $1 bn more on wheat this year. (In the US, wheat prices have tripled over the last year.) Authorities are keen to avoid a repeat of the 1977 bread riots and Hosni Mubarak's government, which values stability over all is almost certain to maintain the subsidized 5 piaster bread loaf (less than $0.01) in the short and medium term, regardless of the stress it puts on government finances....
Long lines outside government bakeries have generated tensions and violence in some cases, which is making authorities jittery....avoid[ing] any talk of lifting subsidies in the short and medium term.....continue spending billions on food subsidies.... Mubarak's recent announcement that the army will assist in bread production and distribution is unlikely to quell public discontent with the government....

On the municipal council elections
.... fear of a sweeping Islamist victory, the Egyptian government has arrested hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood activists and potential candidates. The local municipal councils have long been dominated by the ruling National Democratic Party, which has no intension to relinquish control of the municipalities. The government will likely succeed, as it did with Shoura Council (parliament's upper house) elections in June 2007 of freezing the Muslim Brotherhood out of participation. This will obviously not bolster the Brotherhood's legislative power but will likely increase its popularity.
....the government's more long-term goal is keeping the councils free of Muslim Brotherhood supporters to ensure that they do not have the ability to put forth an independent presidential candidate in the 2011 election. Based on constitutional amendments, independent candidates can run for president if they have the endorsement of the aggregate of at least 250 MP's and local councilors (and the local councilors must represent a majority of the 26 governorates.) The Muslim Brotherhood currently has 88 parliament members, so the government wants to ensure that they do not capture anywhere near 162 of the almost 4500 municipal council seats up for election. This equation will likely increase speculation that Mubarak is paving the way for his son Gamal to be elected president in 2011.
The combination of these crises will complicate the Egyptian government's position in the short and medium term. It will be more difficult for Cairo to implement challenging economic reforms, but it is unlikely that there will be any major policy reversals...."

Obama: "What we need in our next Commander in Chief is not a stubborn refusal to acknowledge reality or empty rhetoric about 3 AM phone calls..."

Here

"... If you believe we are fighting the right war, then the problems we face are purely tactical in nature. That is what Senator McCain wants to discuss — tactics. What he and the Administration have failed to present is an overarching strategy: how the war in Iraq enhances our long-term security, or will in the future. That's why this Administration cannot answer the simple question posed by Senator John Warner in hearings last year: Are we safer because of this war? And that is why Senator McCain can argue — as he did last year — that we couldn't leave Iraq because violence was up, and then argue this year that we can't leave Iraq because violence is down.

....The central front in the war against terror is not Iraq, and it never was. What more could America's enemies ask for than an endless war where they recruit new followers and try out new tactics on a battlefield so far from their base of operations? That is why my presidency will shift our focus. Rather than fight a war that does not need to be fought, we need to start fighting the battles that need to be won on the central front of the war against al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan...."

Les derniers témoins du patrimoine architectural beyrouthin tombent sous les bulldozers de SOLIDERE

In L'Orient Le Jour, here

Bush is still "sure" about Iraq

Via SicSemperTyrannis, here and the BBC, here

"....Bush says that there will be no more serious withdrawals unless the generals on the ground say there should be. Guess what that means. That means an "endless war," in Obama's phrase. Generals don't vote to take responsibility for national policy decisions. They are by nature, and the nature of the process that made them generals, far too risk averse for that. If a decision to make war or not to make war is left to them they will pretty much always vote for the status quo...."

".......The applause for Bush at the Pentagon today will be remembered. I remember a time when my friend Mike could not walk down the street wearing his uniform. I do not want to see that again...

Bush, perhaps deliberately, dances, bobs, weaves and scowls over the identity of the enemy, and the reasons that he and the Jacobin neocons gave us for going to war. Much of that argumentation has been "exploded" by the failure to find it anywhere other than in the pages of rags like "The Weekly Standard" but that does not seem to bother him.

The Vice President seems as insulated from reality as always and absolutely shameless in his public denials of reality in Iraq. What's the deal with him? Is he really impaired somehow or is it about the money as the "oilies" insist?

Then, there is John McCain. He does seem impaired. Lieberman had to remind him that AQ is a Sunni group who hate the government of Iran?

The Democrats need to sober up and get Hillary and Obama onto the same ticket. I don't care who gets the top spot. Pat Lang

Israel believes Lavrov has message from Assad

In the JPost, here

McCain's Foreign-Policy Adviser, Randall Scheunemann talks about his Boss's "intentions"...

In the Nouvel Observateur, here & here

Overwhelming majority of Palestinians Favor Struggle Over Fruitless Talks

in the NYTimes, here

"...The pollster, Khalil Shikaki, said he was shocked because the survey, taken last week, showed greater support for violence than any other he had conducted over the past 15 years in the Palestinian areas. Never before, he said, had a majority favored an end to negotiations or the shooting of rockets at Israel......Mr. Shikaki’s poll also showed that the militant Islamist group Hamas, which Israel and the United States have been trying to isolate, is gaining popularity in the West Bank while its American-backed rival, the more secular Fatah, is losing ground..."

Cairo rekindles mediation to mend Syrian Saudi relations, prior to the Damascus Arab Summit

In Al Akhbar, here

McCain: "al-Qaeda is going back into Iran and receiving training.....(what's that?).... I'm sorry, the Iranians are training extremists, not al-Qaeda"

Via the HuffingtonPost, here

"... Speaking to reporters in Amman, the Jordanian capital, McCain said he and two Senate colleagues traveling with him continue to be concerned about Iranian operatives "taking al-Qaeda into Iran, training them and sending them back."

Pressed to elaborate, McCain said it was "common knowledge and has been reported in the media that al-Qaeda is going back into Iran and receiving training and are coming back into Iraq from Iran, that's well known. And it's unfortunate." A few moments later, Sen. Joseph Lieberman, standing just behind McCain, stepped forward and whispered in the presidential candidate's ear. McCain then said: "I'm sorry, the Iranians are training extremists, not al-Qaeda."

A Criminal 'celebrated' at the UN ...

Ban: "your house overlooks the Atlantic Ocean?"

Democratic Hopefuls Unveil Plan to End War

In the Washington Independent, here and the Seattle Times, here

Interview: Ali Larijani

Via War&Piece, Barbara Slavin inteviews Ali Larijani, here

" ...was [he] more useful to Iran's intell-services and govt', or to America's intell-services and govt'?... he was far more useful to Iran"

Laura Rosen interviews Aram Roston on his new book, Ahmad Chalabi, The Man Who Pushed America to War: The Extraordinary Adventures, Life and Obsessions of Ahmad Chalabi in MoJo, here

Saudi former BCCI director sues American author Rachel Ehrenfeld using British libel law for writing that he financed Osama bin Laden

Via War&Piece, in the Chicago Tribune, here

"....The source of the trouble is Ehrenfeld's book, "Funding Evil: How Terrorism is Financed and How to Stop It," published by Bonus Books. In it, she named [Khaled] bin Mahfouz as a financier of Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda..."

Fencing Israel: Terrorism, wilderness, and the Israeli security wall

By Haim Watzman (of South Jerusalem's fame ) in the ORION mag. here

Hillary: "President Bush & Senator McCain ... want to keep us tied to another country's civil war, a war we cannot win"

HRC at GWU today, here

".... Despite the evidence, President Bush is determined to continue his failed policy in Iraq until he leaves office. And Senator McCain will gladly accept the torch and stay the course, keeping troops in Iraq for up to 100 years if necessary... They both want to keep us tied to another country's civil war, a war we cannot win..."

Survey: Haniyeh more popular than Abbas after IDF Gaza raids

In Haaretz, here

"... According to the survey, Hamas's breaching of the Gaza Strip's Rafah border crossing with Egypt in January also contributed to Haniyeh's popularity among Palestinians. "These developments managed to present Hamas as successful in breaking the siege and as a victim of Israeli attacks," commentary accompanying the poll said. Lack of progress in Abbas's peace negotiations with Israel also gave Hamas a boost, the poll indicated..."

"We had many from age 10.. I think the youngest one was because his father was passing notes or doing something but they held him too.."

"Thumbs-Up" Sabrina Harman talks to Errol Morris about 10 years olds & women detained at Abou Ghraib .... "because his father or her husband did something" , from the NYorker, here

(“I guess we weren’t really thinking, Hey, this guy was just murdered,” Harman said of the corpse photographs. “I know it looks bad.” Courtesy Sabrina Harman)