Purging the Neocons from the American Soul

Here

STRATFOR: Move and Countermove: Ahmadinejad and Bush Duel

From STRATFOR, here

"...But there also is a fundamental geopolitical problem. Saudi Arabia suffers from a usually fatal disease. It is extraordinarily rich and militarily weak...

The Saudis have Iran's offer. The problem is that the offer cannot be guaranteed by Saudi power, but depends on Iran's willingness to honor it...

The Iranian position is becoming more complex as Tehran tries to forge a post-war coalition to manage Iraq -- and to assure the coalition that Iran doesn't plan to swallow some of its members..."

"The Iran Report" (IAEA)

Via The Washington Note, the "Restricted Distribution" report by IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, "Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran", here

"The concluding clips from the Summary underscore that ElBaradei sees Iran moving in a positive direction and setting its nuclear program up for high level transparency that had not been previously the case"

"The last section, however, is what the United States and France are crying foul over and which remains a major obstacle to more political progress:

25. Contrary to the decisions of the Security Council, Iran has not suspended its enrichment related activities, having continued with the operation of PFEP, and with the construction and operation of FEP. Iran is also continuing with its construction of the IR-40 reactor and operation of the Heavy Water Production Plant.

Here's why the US might not attack Iran

Andrew Exum (affectionately Abou Muqawama) in the Daily Star, here

"...It's not just in Washington, ... Israel, Lebanon and among the Gulf states, some officials are similarly pressing for the use of American military force against Iran because such action might serve their own purposes... None of those voices, however, consider how the US military, as an institution, might resist moves that could lead to such action..."

"... For example, Admiral William Fallon, the new commander of US Central Command, has rejected calls for a third carrier group to be sent to the Gulf as a message to the Iranians. War against Iran, he has said, "will not happen on my watch."

"... there exists a tremendous sense of guilt among the US senior officer corps for what is seen as a failure to stand up to the civilian leadership in the rush to go to war against Iraq... leak information to the press should the administration begin taking secret steps toward military action

"...it is not inconceivable that serving military officers would resign rather than sanction another poorly planned military adventure in the Middle East. High-profile resignations, along with leaks to the press, would only feed already strong domestic opposition to a war with Iran..."

Beware of classing Iran's Guards as terrorists

From CFR's Ray Takeyh in the FT, here
"... Despite their attempts to arm and train Iraqi Shia militias and advance Iran's nuclear programme, the Guards have not opposed negotiations with the US. Indeed, it would be inconceivable for talks on the nuclear issue or Iraq to have proceeded without the Guards' approbation. The administration's attempt to coerce and put pressure on this organisation is likely to trigger its antagonism towards further dealings with the US."

Cheney to "roll out" a military confrontation with Iran in September?

From B. Rubin at Informed Comment, here, and for those who missed the WeeklyStandard's case FOR war, in this Kimberly Kagan report: "Iran's Proxy War Against The Us and the Iraqi Government", here.

"...But this apparently is just test marketing, like Cheney's 2002 speech. After all "from a marketing point of view, you don't introduce new products in August." Today I received a message from a friend who has excellent connections in Washington and whose information has often been prescient. According to this report, as in 2002, the rollout will start after Labor Day, with a big kickoff on September 11. My friend had spoken to someone in one of the leading neo-conservative institutions. He summarized what he was told this way:

"They [the source's institution] have "instructions" (yes, that was the word used) from the Office of the Vice-President to roll out a campaign for war with Iran in the week after Labor Day; it will be coordinated with the American Enterprise Institute, the Wall Street Journal, the Weekly Standard, Commentary, Fox, and the usual suspects. It will be heavy sustained assault on the airwaves, designed to knock public sentiment into a position from which a war can be maintained. Evidently they don't think they'll ever get majority support for this--they want something like 35-40 percent support, which in their book is "plenty.""

Hezbollah video game targets Israel

From Al Jazeera-English, here

"Strikingly Negative" Iraq Report Leaked To Preempt White House Doctoring

From the WaPo, via the Huffington Post, here and a story by McClatchy's on the disagreement at the Pentagon preventing Commanders from making "a single, unified recommendation to President Bush during next month's strategy assessment, but instead will allow top commanders to make individual presentations." Story here.

"Overall," the report concludes, "key legislation has not been passed, violence remains high, and it is unclear whether the Iraqi government will spend $10 billion in reconstruction funds," as promised. While it makes no policy recommendations, the draft suggests that future administration assessments "would be more useful" if they backed up their judgments with more details and "provided data on broader measures of violence from all relevant U.S. agencies."

* * * * * *"Marcel Khalifé and the Mayadine Ensemble" in Washington * * * * * *

The Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, Georgetown University
and The Jerusalem Fund for Education and Community Development

proudly present

"Marcel Khalifé and the Mayadine Ensemble"

November 1 and 2, 2007

The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts
Terrace Theater
7:30 p.m.
Tickets: $20, $35, $50.

By Phone:
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Considering a War With Iran: A Discussion Paper on WMD in the Middle East

From SOAS, U of London, pdf. here, Pat Lang Commenting:

"One of our readers asked me to look at this paper. Having done so my opinion is that the authors need to develop a healthy sense of skepticism when confronted with bureaucratic statements of intent with regard to desired capability.
The premise of the paper is that the US possesses the ability to attack 10,000 Iranian targets from a great distance on a nearly simultaneous basis. The authors believe this because the US Strategic Command (old SAC) has as its goal to achieve such a capability and a clutch of think tanks are holding meetings about it.
Just after the first Gulf War a senior civilian colleague approached me to express outrage that the "smart" weapons in use had Pk (probability of kill) rates lower in fact than those promised by the manufacturers. She was surprised when I told her that highly complex equipment (gadgets) never performed as advertised and that they usually broke down just when needed.
The point is that these two academic authors actually believe the "air power" baloney. They think that a renewed attempt to apply the principle of "shock and awe" will result in complete devastation of Iran, Iranian inability to respond and a very short war.
Douhet, Trenchard and Mitchell would be pleased with their gullibility.
In fact such a strike would be merely the opening battle in yet another long war fought against a major piece of the Islamic World.
The current IO campaign against Iran makes it seem more and more plausible that such an onslaught will be attempted"

Hear Ye; Hear Ye: "U.S. Troops Release Detained Iranians"

From WaPo, via WarandPiece, here

"Eight Iranians, including two diplomats, were released by U.S. forces Wednesday after being detained because unauthorized weapons were found in their cars, the U.S. military said. An adviser to the top U.S. general in Iraq called the detentions "regrettable.""

"Anti-Israel violence from Hamas and Hezbollah wax and wane according to those groups' own imperatives, it has nothing to do with Iraq"

Matt Yglesias (here) commenting and more, on a WSJ piece by European neocon, Josef Joffee, here. Joffe argues that all the follwing calamities will happen if and when the US withdraws from Iraq: (did he forget anything, like would the separatists get the upper hand in French Caledonia?)

• "Iran advances to No. 1, completing its nuclear-arms program undeterred and unhindered."
• The Sunni Arab states "are drawn into the Khomeinist orbit."
• "[E]mboldened jihadi forces shift to Afghanistan and turn it again into a bastion of Terror International"
• "Syria reclaims Lebanon"
• "Hezbollah and Hamas . . . resume their war against Israel"
• "Russia . . . rebuilds its anti-Western alliances"

Reappraise US Lebanon Policy

From MEI' by Graeme Bannerman, here

"... Syria is clearly much weaker than the US, but it has greater interests in Lebanon. The US may view Lebanon as a concern but not as essential to its national security. Lebanese, like the voters in Metn, increasingly think US interests in Lebanon are unsustainable and will fade, but Syrian interest will not...

American leaders need to realize that the local election in Metn is a clear signal of a shift in Lebanese opinion against American policy. Lebanese leaders who have linked their fate to American power and influence against their domestic opponents will use every means they have to persuade Washington not to change course..."

Interview: Nouri Al Maliki: Talk of a coup "is a sick mentality, a hangover, from the Baathist era... the era of coups has departed"

From McClatchy's, here.

Khatami's "Macaca" moment in Italy?

For those looking to find one, this is Khatami's "Macaca" moment, YouTube it here.

"Contiguous" Jewish neighborhoods East of Jerusalem will in no way be forfeited from Israel under any agreement. Basta!

Martin Peretz in TNR, here.

"... Greater Jerusalem is still a vague concept and a vaguer reality. But its outlines are clear. There are some contiguous Jewish neighborhoods east of the city proper, big neighborhoods. There is no way these will be forfeited from Israeli under any agreement. Basta! Finito! Gemacht! Dayenu! Yes, this is another price the Palestinians will pay for having hijacked the peace process for so many years. These are now facts on the ground, and President Bush's roadmap letter recognizes this. Whatever Israeli government sits in Jerusalem will not act as if it is otherwise..."

Hezbollah & The UNIFIL's Spaniards: "Precious Leads"

Contrary to Samir Geagea's "pontifications", LAF sources have told FLC that Hezbollah offered a lot of "valuable" information regarding the lethal attacks that targeted the Spanish UNIFIL contingent in South Lebanon. Same is said of the attacks that targeted the Tanzanian contingent. Army Intelligence is after 3 individuals thought to be in "enclosed areas" of South Lebanon.

Dans un Liban miné par les divisions, la France pratique une diplomatie plus réaliste

From Le Figaro, here

"... Dans la même veine, l'affaire de Nar el-Bared, ce camp de réfugiés palestiniens du Liban-Nord, affrontent l'armée depuis trois mois, est loin d'être aussi claire que la majorité pro-occidentale à Beyrouth le prétend... Aujourd'hui, les terroristes - anciens agents prosyriens, djihadistes salafistes et quelques brigands - n'obéissent pas qu'à Damas. Pour certains, les ramifications conduiraient plutôt à la direction sunnite libanaise, pas mécontente d'avoir des « gros bras » à sa disposition, si un jour la fracture sunnite-chiite virait à la guerre civile..."

Rallying Around the Renegade: How did Aoun "do it" without losing support?

Heiko Wimmen looks at the political sociology of Aoun's base, at MERIP, here

"... Another constant feature of Aoun’s volatile career is the persistence with which his popular support has bounced back every time his opponents have declared it spent..."