Iraqis, Not Iran, Behind Karbala Attack: Internal US Army Investigation Implicates Iraqi Police, Politicians

From TIME, via IraqSlogger, here and here

" ... The military has struggled to affix responsibility for the Karbala murders. U.S. commanders have accused the Quds Force, a paramilitary organization run by members of Iran's security establishment, of being behind the operation. On July 2 in Baghdad, the military revealed it was holding Ali Musa Daqduq, a Lebanese national who was captured in Basra in March. He is a senior operative of Hizballah (the Lebanese Shi'ite militia supported by the Quds Force), and officials say he has admitted to involvement in the attack. An internal Army investigation into the attack reviewed by TIME, in addition to interviews with U.S. and Iraqi witnesses, suggest that the abduction and murders were carried out with the knowledge and complicity of Iraqi Shi'ite police who only hours earlier had been working alongside U.S. soldiers--and may have involved local officials loyal to the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki ..."

"Iran and US Jiu-Jitsu in the Middle East", Op-Ed by Gary Sick

Via WarAndPiece, read G Sick's full essay here.

the "moving parts" of the new US strategy (excerpts)

-- In Lebanon, provide covert support for efforts to support the Siniora government and to thwart Hezbollah, probably in close cooperation with Israeli intelligence [being done?];

-- keep attention focused on Iran, including raids and general harassment of its representatives [the 5 Iranians who were arrested in Irbil have now been in US custody for more than 6 months, during which time Iranian representatives have been permitted to meet them only once, near the six-month anniversary];

-- Attempt to woo (or threaten) Syria away from its alliance with Iran with promises of money and support of Syrian efforts to regain the Golan Heights [if so, the effort is totally subterranean as far as I can tell];

-- Provide (Israeli) intelligence support to U.S. (and potentially Arab) anti-Hezbollah efforts in Lebanon [probably done];

Major Quake, Tsunami Likely in Middle East, Study Finds

"... In A.D. 551, a massive earthquake spawned huge tsunamis that devastated the coast of Phoenicia, now Lebanon Now a new underwater survey has finally uncovered the fault likely responsible for the catastrophe and shown that it rumbles approximately every 1,500 years—which means a disaster is due any day now...More than 30,000 people died in Beirut alone... "

Read More from National Geographic, here

Pollack & O'Hanlon: "Surge is Wonderful"

"... But for now, things look much better than before. American advisers told us that many of the corrupt and sectarian Iraqi commanders who once infested the force have been removed. The American high command assesses that more than three-quarters of the Iraqi Army battalion commanders in Baghdad are now reliable partners (at least for as long as American forces remain in Iraq)..."

OBG: Lebanon: Best Prospect Sectors

Jorma Ollila, Chairman and CEO, Nokia and Marwan Hamadé, Minister of Economy and Trade, Lebanon

While last year's July war and ensuing political instability have severely impacted Lebanon's economic growth and led to a slowdown in investments, three sectors have been singled out as best prospect sectors by a US report on Lebanon 2007. The guide pointed to Lebanon's "many investment-enabling strengths" that had encouraged foreign companies to set up offices in recent years, including "a free market, a highly dollarised economy, the absence of controls on the movement of capital and foreign exchange, a highly educated labour force, a good quality of life and limited restrictions on investors". The three "best prospect sectors" were named as information and communication technology (ICT), pharmaceuticals and insurance... Read More here.

Sale of Sophisticated gear to the Saudis: It will gather dust and rust somewhere after all the payments, training and posturing are finished

"The main theme of this set of deals is the desire to do "business" (literally) in the Gulf. The Arabs have money and we might as well continue to have as much of it as they are willing to part with. Some Arabs in these countries will benefi from the sales. There will be a certain amount of the usual paying of "comissions" suitable disguised as something else, somewhere, sometime.
The Chinese, among others, have been pursuing Arab money and Arab investment opportuities all over the Arab World as well in many other places. The commercial competition from them is intense.
Those involved probably, almost, nearly think this is about Iran. The ludicrous conception of selling such sophisticated toys to the Saudis is delightful in an Evelyn Waugh kind of way. Saudi Arabia has a tiny, still poorly educated population. There is no way that THE KINGDOM can absorb this kind of equipment, but, then, neither can the jihadis. What will happen to all this "gear?" It will gather dust and rust somewhere after all the payments, training and posturing are finished.
The symbolism is the thing. We, the American guarantors of the status quo in the Middle East guarantee to you, the Sunni Arab govenments that we are not going to try to unseat you. We had our flirtation with radical change, but, well, ... How can you be sure? Well, if we do, we can't collect the money.
And, of course, this means that we understand what you have to do in Iraq...
Israel? They won't pay for their part of the deal." pl

And read William Arkin, here

Israel agrees to U.S. arms sale to Saudis

"In a break from historic Israeli opposition to U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Sunday his country understands Washington’s plan to supply state-of-the-art weapons to Riyadh as a counterweight to Iranian influence... The United States, knowing that Israel is sensitive about such arms sales, is also offering a sharp increase in defense aid to Israel and has assured the Jewish state it will retain a fighting edge over other countries in the region, he added."

read the full story here.

Maliki and his "friends" are unhappy with Petraeus

From the Athenaeum (a couple of very interesting downloads) , read it here

"The Maliki government exists by the courtesy of neocon influence on US policy for the purpose of giving the Shia religious urban crowd political power in Iraq. That policy has failed. The Shia are clearly not capable of making effective the authority given to them by "one man, one vote" based elections. They probably will never be capable of making their authority effective in the parts of the country dominated by Sunni Arabs. To put it bluntly. They don't have "the juice.""

Iraq: It's How We Pull Out

Read Ignatius in the WaPo here. "A good start would be for Washington partisans to take deep breaths and lower the volume, so that the process of talking and fighting that must accompany a gradual U.S. withdrawal can work." ... But we should ask Ignatius: "Is G W Bush listening?"

Medley Global Advisors: Iraq: The Logistics of Withdrawal

Medley's reports are very hard (and expensive) to come by. Col. Lang is very generous with us all. Read their latest, most notably Lang's essay on Iraq, page 9 , here.

France unlikely to repeat Libya triumph in Lebanon

From Reuters via SyriaComment, here

Heritage: Bombing Iran "is good for the US Economy"

Via Kevin Drum we get this essay from the Heritage Foundation on the advantages of bombing Iran. Here

Richard Sale on IRAN:Cheney propsed a "very limited strike" but so far has gotten NO approval!

Via SicSemperTyrannis (Col. Pat Lang) from the very well informed Richard Sale.

"Regarding Iran.."
Richard Sale sent me this. It should be posted. I am busy writing. That is all. Not a big deal. pl

"Dear Pat:

I will be brief and be gone.

Regarding Iran, the Bush line of attack has been and will continue to be allegations of Iranian interference inside Iraq, chiefly to al Sadr and other pro-Tehran factions. Iran is supplying weapons and IEDs to the insurgency, but only to the Shia factions.British intelligence uncovered an Iranian op in Afghanistan that was supplying weapons to the Taliban. Knowing of Cheney's relish to appear tough in front of the eyes of the world and his followers, the British spooks were timid about informing Bush about the Afghan op, but were overruled at the ministerial level.According to senior US intelligence officials, President Bush has definitely decided not to strike any of Iranian alleged nuclear weapons production facilities this year. Israeli intel is floating a lot of stories about bunker buster bombs being moved to the region, but this is psyop rubbish.What Cheney has proposed is a measure that would launch a very limited military strike at one or more known Iranian training centers whose forces are being deployed to Iraq. This proposal has, so far, gotten no approval.

With greetings to all,
Richard Sale"

Alterman: "How To Manage Assad"

Read CSIS's John Alterman's WaPo piece here.

"The Bush administration thinks Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is bluffing. Its policy of cutting off most contacts with the Syrian government and tightening the screws of sanctions is meant to signal that the United States has superior strength and a superior will. At some point, the reasoning goes, the Syrians will realize that resistance is futile, and they will give up the charade of virulent opposition to U.S. policy in the Middle East. But a visit to Damascus early this month that included an hour-long discussion with Assad left me unconvinced that his regime can be scared straight..."
The Syrian government may overestimate its centrality to Middle East politics and its diplomatic weight, but it knows how to stay in power. The rest of the Middle East has been swept up by discussions of social and political change, economic development and foreign direct investment; Syria's leaders are preoccupied with security and stability. Rather than opening up, they are hunkering down. Six weeks after Assad won reelection with 97.6 percent of the vote, flattering portraits with adoring messages still festooned most billboards and large flat spaces in Damascus. This authoritarian government is not searching for a new playbook..."

U.S. Tracks Saudi Bank favored by Extremists

Via WarandPiece, we have this long WSJ piece on "the US looking the other way" when it involves Saudi financing terror. here.

"As a result, the Bush administration repeatedly debated proposals for taking strong action itself against Al Rajhi Bank, in particular, according to former U.S. officials and previously undisclosed government documents. Ultimately, the U.S. always chose instead to lobby Saudi officialdom quietly about its concerns..."

"... For the ruling Saud family, any confrontation with the Al Rajhis could be politically treacherous. To stay in power, the Sauds rely on the tolerance of clerical and business elites, many of whom view the royal family as corrupt. The wealthy Al Rajhis are a clan long at odds with the royal family. And U.S. intelligence files show the Al Rajhis also have close ties to another group critical of the royals: Saudi Arabia's conservative clerics..."

Expropriations by Amman Municipality in favor of Hariri's "Abdali"

"A friend in Jordan sent me this. "Attached is a photograph I took of the two buildings in Amman belonging to Talal Abu Ghazaleh that have now been forcibly expropriated by the Amman municipality on behalf of Hariri in order to build an access road to the Solidere-style Abdali development. As you recall, Abu Ghazaleh resisted all attempts at intimidation to force him to sell. His son told Baha al-Hariri: 'if you sell me your father's house in Quraytim, then I will sell you my father's headquarters in Amman."

Read AngryArab's full story here.

U.S. Kills Plans to Build Embassy in Hezbollah Area of Beirut

reader (and Blogger) Apokraphyte lead me to this ABC Blotter story.

"A U.S. official tells the Blotter on ABCNews.com that Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman, in a May 31, 2007 classified cable to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, registered his strong objections, saying his staff "unanimously opposes construction" of the embassy on the proposed site.
Feltman also said in the cable that his local staff would be "an easy target" for Hezbollah and that U.S. diplomats would "be under siege" during any conflict."

I have heard about this lot a few times (with conspiratorial twists) and it does not look like news to me. Purchasing US-pegged real estate (40,000 meters in Yarzeh) in the immediate proximity of "Dahieh" is a stroke of ... madness. The Beirut cynics say that "Jeff Feltman, who is anything but Ambassadorial, must have been promised a healthy remuneration on another lot". Your call!

Read the blotter here

Iran says it is ready for "higher level" talks with US over Iraq

From Hindu News, via Juan Cole here

"Iranian Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, said on Wednesday that his country was ready to consider further talks with the United States over Iraq's security at a higher level, the official IRNA news agency reported. "

WSJ: To Check Syria, U.S. Explores Bond With Muslim Brothers

Via SyriaComment, in the Wall Street Journal, here.

Elias Murr "proposes" himself as compromise President while a "star realignment" favors Army Commander Suleiman for interim government

From "VERY fine" Parliamentary source:

Constant: NO civil strife! Shia's will not partake & Sunnis CANNOT partake.

Constant: President Lahoud will not relinquish power to the Siniora govt'.

Constant: In the Metn elections, Gen. Michel Aoun will be confirmed and re-anointed "leader of the Christians." (US source implied that Feltman "might have tricked Gemayel" specifically to have this M14 damning scenario unfold. Then, the US will tell M14 (most notably the Christians in it) that the "dice were played"...)

Constant: In a two government scenario, opposition will "grab" (access to) 16 ministries, while the rest remains in the hands of the ruling clique. A devastatingly bad scenario.

Constant: Only the LAF can guarantee access to ALL ministries, if it chooses so.

Constant: Michel Suleiman said that he will submit his resignation to the "two LEGITIMATE governments"should we face this scenario.

Solution: (pending) ALMOST ALL Christians will support it- ALL Shia's will support it- Grudgingly, most Sunnis will support it (no way back now): An interim government headed by Michel Suleiman as Prime Minister, supported (varying degrees) by regional & great powers!

I forgot to mention that during his last trip to Washington, Minister of Defense Elias "Ludicrous" Murr proposed to his hosts an unusual amendment of the Constitution, to allow the election of a non-Maronite to the country's highest job under the guise of the ..., ... "War on Terror"!