Useful map of Syria

Al Akhbar's

Orange: Syrian Arab Army

Green: Amalgam/ Opposition

Blue: ISIS

Yellow: Kurds

'Sanctions on Russia over Ukraine not expected to damage delicate diplomacy on Syria, Iran'

"...The U.S. focus on chemical weapons in the Syrian conflict fulfills Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goal of keeping Syrian President Bashar Assad in power, and Russian influence in the talks on Iran’s nuclear program has diminished, according to analysts who specialize in U.S.-Russian relations.Those conclusions suggest that the State Department’s compartmentalization policy will succeed, avoiding a severing of U.S.-Russian ties but still light years away from what the Obama administration once had envisioned as a “reset” with Moscow. ..."

Happening with frequency: Explosion near Syria border wounds three Israeli soldiers

'Today's successful hit in the Golan'

Hezbollah is retaliating more frequently than reported.

"...Three Israeli soldiers were wounded by a bomb that hit their jeep in the Golan Heights near the Syrian border on Monday....On Friday evening, an explosive charge detonated near Har Dov in the vicinity of the Israel-Lebanon border......About ten days earlier, a similar incident occurred in the northern Golan Heights, when an Israel army force spotted several persons suspected of attempting to plant a charge near the border fence with Syria....Tensions have risen in the north since an airstrike, attributed by foreign reports to the Israeli Air Force, targeted a Hezbollah weapons convoy in Lebanon.

Dmitry Rogozin @DRogozin

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Comrade @BarackObama, what should do those who have neither accounts nor property abroad? Or U didn't think about it?)http://bit.ly/1ebMXDM 

10:26 AM - 17 Mar 2014

The Use of Force, the Reflexive Resort to Economic Sanctions, and the Trials of America’s Hegemonic Mindset

"... As negotiations toward a “final” nuclear deal between the P5+1 and Iran continue, it is important to consider to what extent the world might be witnessing a fundamental change in American foreign policy.  We are inclined to think that the Obama administration would not have gone as far down the diplomatic road with Iran as it has in the absence of President Obama’s self-inflicted debacle over his declared intention to attack Syria after chemical weapons were used there in August 2013.  This episode drove home—to the Obama administration as well as to most of the rest of the world—that the United States can no longer credibly threaten to use military force in the Middle East for hegemonic purposes.After the American public so resoundingly rebuffed Obama’s call for U.S. military action, his administration was compelled to conclude that starting down the diplomatic road with Iran was politically less costly than pushing for more sanctions and continuing to insist that the “military option” was still “on the table.”  But can the Obama administration really go all the way to a comprehensive realignment of relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran—and, in the process, show that the United States can shift proactively from a counterproductive drive to dominate the Middle East to serious engagement with all important regional powers, and not just slink out of region in defeat?Making such a shift will require Washington to relinquish the self-damaging delusion that the United States can actually maintain hegemony in the Middle East on an open-ended basis.  America’s reaction to the ongoing Ukraine crisis suggests that American elites are having a very difficult time giving up this delusion..."

"Saudi Arabia may be tacitly conceding something in Syria, but it is doubling its bet on ‘wiping out’ the Muslim Brotherhood"

"... The predominant triggers for all this commotion was primarily Egypt and Saudi’s attachment to its Field Marshall’s scourge of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and secondly, the dramatic Saudi decree disowning jihadists – much to the ire of the ‘jilted’ jihadists in Syria and to their Salafi and Brotherhood colleagues and facilitators in Lebanon....The second trigger probably has been the appointment of Prince Mohammad bin Nayef to replace Prince Bandar in charge of Saudi’s re-orientated Syria policy.  Perhaps here it is right to conclude that the prospect of a visit by President Obama to Riyadh shortly has catalyzed the ‘re-set’ in Saudi policy towards countering takfiri jihadism. Prince Mohammad is both an American favorite, and his credentials precisely lie in the field of counter-terrorism – the new western priority.  But, significantly, both he and his father are also widely known for their detestation of the Muslim Brotherhood.  Saudi Arabia may be tacitly conceding something in Syria, but it is doubling its bet on ‘wiping out’ the Muslim Brotherhood.  If Saudi Arabia persuades others in the region to proscribe the MB, Mohammad bin Nayef may be right in assuming that the Europeans, so well atuned to Gulf interests, may be counted on to act in follow-up....What does this mean in terms of geo-politics? Firstly, it is likely that these GCC tensions will play out directly in Syria, where the frictions between Gulf States are likely to mirror in the antagonisms and conflicts between the various armed insurgent groups – to the benefit of the Syrian army.  Secondly, the loss of GCC coherence will both weaken it as a body, and adversely affect Saudi’s political standing, which derives from its control over this body; thirdly, the hostilities towards Oman and Qatar, far from deterring them from rapprochement with Iran, precisely are spurring them in that direction; fourthly, the assault on the Muslim Brotherhood is deepening PM Erdogan’s loneliness and political vulnerability.  Finally, Saudi Arabia has really extended itself in loading so much of its credibility onto the shoulders of Field Marshal Sisi and the unforeseeable course of events in Egypt..."

"Western and regional governments share responsibility for much that has happened in Libya, but so too should the media"

"... Western and regional governments share responsibility for much that has happened in Libya, but so too should the media. The Libyan uprising was reported as a simple-minded clash between good and evil. Gaddafi and his regime were demonised and his opponents treated with a naïve lack of scepticism and enquiry. The foreign media have dealt with the subsequent collapse of the Libyan state since 2011 mostly by ignoring it, though politicians have stopped referring to Libya as an exemplar of successful foreign intervention.
Can anything positive be learnt from the Libyan experience which might be useful in establishing states that are an improvement on those ruled by Gaddafi, Assad and the like? An important point is that demands for civil, political and economic rights – which were at the centre of the Arab Spring uprisings – mean nothing without a nation state to guarantee them; otherwise national loyalties are submerged by sectarian, regional and ethnic hatreds...."

Yabroud: Check. Ersal: Next

"(Reuters) - Syrian forces backed by Hezbollah militants took full control of the town of Yabroud on Sunday after driving out rebels, helping President Bashar al-Assad secure the land route linking the capital Damascus to Aleppo and the Mediterranean coast.The fall of Yabroud, the last rebel bastion near the Lebanese border, could choke off a vital insurgent supply line from Lebanon and consolidate government control over a swathe of territory from Damascus to the central city of Homs..."

US Intel: "Assad has as good as won"

'Despite the meager results of Secretary of State Kerry’s six hours of talks with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on March 14^th, State Department officials are not despairing of a diplomatic solution to the Crimea crisis. Kerry is calling the talks “constructive.” Contrary to the media build-up, officials never saw the session with Lavrov as “last ditch’ or “make or break.” One official summed things up to us: “We were certainly hoping for more, but Kerry was able to use his already good relationship with Lavrov to offer a number of very specific ideas for greater autonomy for Crimea. These will form the basis of further talks after the referendum.”  Critics on the Hill, however, believe that the referendum will only harden Moscow's position in having the Crimea return to Russian sovereignty.  This is not to say that that situation is not extremely volatile. There is deep concern in Washington that President Putin has misread the determination of the West to impose costs on him or – much worse – that he will intervene in Eastern Ukraine if civic disturbances continue there. The Administration’s hope is that the increasingly tough approach adopted by German Chancellor Merkel – who is seen in Washington as the pivotal player – will convince Putin to have second thoughts. As an NSC analyst commented to us: “We have a good understanding about Lavrov but we hardly any read of Putin.” There is a sense of foreboding that, once sanctions start to be imposed, attitudes will harden in Moscow and the crisis will turn into a prolonged one – with implications on other issues in the US-Russia relationship like Syria, Iran, North Korea and nuclear disarmament. With new P5+1 talks due with Tehran next week, US officials are at present encouraged that the Russian attitude remains cooperative.  Regarding Syria, US attention has dropped precipitately, with the result that US intelligence analysts are warning that Assad is making military gains that will be near impossible to reverse. One analyst commented to us: “Assad has as good as won.” ...'

Qatar's 'ace in the hole'

"... Today, gratitude has turned to bitterness in places like Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and elsewhere, where Qatar’s support for one brand of Islam is viewed as unwelcome interference by millions.
Doha, however, still believes in the long-term viability of its bet. It obviously thinks it has more to gain than lose. It continues to view Saudi Arabia as a regional rival. The emir and his father do not forget that Riyadh opposed the 1995 coup that brought Hamad to power.
With the Middle East in turmoil, the outcome of the Iranian nuclear negotiations still uncertain, the fighting in Syria raging and Egypt in transition, the Qatari rulers view the Muslim Brotherhood as their ace in the hole. They are not prepared to throw it away."

Libya drifts

"... In the nearly three years since Libyans fought to end 42 years of often brutal and bizarre rule by Moammar Gadhafi, the weak central government that replaced him has proved incapable of tackling the mounting problems. Now the nation is as fragile as it’s ever been since Gadhafi’s ouster and death, and Libyans themselves are showing less enthusiasm for the trappings of democracy..."

Masked gunmen attack army bus in Cairo

"... An officer was killed and three others injured when gunmen opened fire on an army bus in Cairo. The Egyptian army said the Muslim Brotherhood was behind the attack, according to Reuters news agency on Thursday..."

"... well, this is a different Hezbolla"

"... “A Hezbollah with modern surface-to-air systems, with modern U.A.V.’s, with modern cybercapabilities, well, this is a different Hezbollah,” the senior military official said, one that could have “much more appetite to taste another conflict with Israel.”

This is how it's done!

This author has a good strategic mind.

"... Before getting to what power-sharing in Syria might actually look like, the parties would try to establish a sustainable cease-fire. The United States and Europe could probably get the opposition and its supporters from the Sunni Gulf states to stand down; Iran could do the same with Mr. Assad.
The next step would be to speed the delivery of civilian aid. Given that Iran and Hezbollah have personnel on the ground in Syria, their cooperation on such an effort would be much more effective than Russia’s. Aid delivery would not only help Syrians in need, but such a good-faith effort on Mr. Assad’s part would improve the climate for substantive negotiations on the actual transition plan.
A diplomatic approach to Iran would not sit well with many in the Syrian opposition. But they also have to face facts: With or without Iran, the United States and its allies will remain wary of any political deal unless the moderate opposition substantially purges its ranks of jihadists, who are infiltrating Syria in increasing numbers...."

Ongoing Thuggery

"Egypt’s prisons are full to bursting. More than 20 men may be packed into a police cell three metres squared. People who have been released say there are inmates still inside who have been there for six months in facilities designed to hold people for a few days. Some of them are under 18. At first the police rounded up members of the Muslim Brotherhood and supporters of Mohamed Morsi. The net has now widened to include campaigners who called for a ‘no’ vote on the constitutional referendum, liberal activists and journalists..."

CIA's Brennan: "Syria has a real army"

"...“Syria has a real army,” Brennan said in reply to a question from Al-Monitor about how long Assad might stay in power. The Syrian military, he added, has benefited from years of training and equipping by Russia and is “a large conventional military force with tremendous firepower.”While acknowledging the proficiency of some of the Islamist fighters battling the Assad regime, Brennan noted that “internecine fighting” among the rebels has hurt their cause.“Assad has been able to stand back and watch their fighting,” Brennan said..."

'We have lied so much that these 'hypocrits' don't believe us anymore!'

"... Not only have international condemnations of the arms shipment been "few and feeble," Netanyahu said, but at the same time "handshakes and smiles" were seen in Tehran as European policy chief Catherine Ashton met with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.Netanyahu accused the international community of "hypocrisy against Israel," keeping largely silent following the exposure of the arms ship but readily issuing "blunt and sharp" denunciations of Israel..."

Pakistan’s new-found enthusiasm for military action against the Taliban ... yield fast-track rewards

"... Highly-placed sources told The Express Tribune that friendly countries have injected another sum of $750 million in the PDF – an account opened to channel money from abroad. The last tranche was received in February that stabilised the dwindling official foreign currency reserves.It is the first time that any country has generously given $1.5-billion assistance to Pakistan within one month, as Islamabad never received such an amount as ‘upfront’ payments. The US, which remains the largest contributor, always gave amounts in tranches spreading over several years. Under its five-year, $7.5-billion Kerry Lugar aid package, Washington gave less than $2.5 billion in government-to-government assistance in over three years.
However, it was not clear whether the money received is a grant or depositary loans aimed at temporarily bailing out the country..."

Saudis slams terrorism charges by Iraqi PM

"... "Nouri al-Maliki knows very well, more than anyone else, the clear and categorical position of the kingdom against terrorism... and is aware of the kingdom's efforts to combat this phenomenon locally and globally," the AFP news agency quoted the official as saying..."

Syrian Arab Army dramatic advances in the West, pressured al Qaeda & co. to deal

"BEIRUT — The deal that saw the release over the weekend of 13 Syrian nuns who'd been abducted in December by anti-government fighters happened largely because rebel forces fear they are about to lose control of the area where the nuns were being held...."