Kerry wants war!

"... “Secretary Kerry was very emotional and sympathetic to the Syrian cause, and he supports the Syrian revolution and the Syrian people,” Bashir said. “We have so much hope that there will be changes in the policy.”
It’s been well reported that Kerry has been frustrated with the Obama administration’s Syria policy for a long time and has been advocating internally for more robust aid to the rebels, only to be stymied repeatedly by the White House..."

Royal panderer!

"... "I believe that what's happening in Bahrain is a source of hope for many people in the world and a source of pride for Bahrainis."

'Russia is somewhat more vulnerable to the West’s teaming up with Sunni radicals as its new geo-strategic weapon of choice.'

"... Russia is not frightened by sanctions (which some, with influence in Moscow, would welcome as a chance to push-back against the US use of the global interbank payment systems for its own ends). Nor is Russia concerned that, as occurred with the USSR, the US – in today’s changed circumstances – can contrive a drop in the price of oil in order to weaken the state. But Russia is somewhat more vulnerable to the West’s teaming up with Sunni radicals as its new geo-strategic weapon of choice.  
We have therefore seen a Russian outreach both to Saudi Arabia and Egypt (President Putin recently extolled King Abdallah’s “wisdom”). There is a feeling too that US policy is not fully controlled by the US President; and that Gulf States, smelling that US policy may be adrift, and open to manipulation by interests within the US, will take advantage (perhaps in coordination with certain Americans opposed to President Obama’s policies) to escalate the jihadist war against President Assad and to target Obama’s Iran policy.  Russia may be expected to try to circumscribe this danger to its own Muslim population and to that of its neighbouring former Soviet Republics.  But for now, Russia will be likely to play it cool: to wait-and-see how events unfold, before recalibrating any main components of its Middle East policy.  For the longer term however, Russia’s effective divorce out of the unipolar international order will impact powerfully on the Middle East, where Saudi Arabia (not to say Syria and Iran) have already virtually done the same."

No dramatic change!

'The reaction in Washington to Russian President Putin’s surprise announcement that he is softening his opposition to the May 25^th elections in Ukraine has been reserved in public but more welcoming in private. As a senior State Department official explained to us: “over the past days, Putin’s acceptance or otherwise of the election has become the touchstone of our attitude to him. Now he has taken a step in our direction.”  Nonetheless, the mood in Washington remains one of intense suspicion. An NSC contact put it this way: “Putin’s KGB past gets in the way. Even when he may be trying to be helpful, we sense a trick.” His visit to Crimea was criticized as “provocative”. In the White House view, the hard test of Putin’s intentions will come in the election. If this takes place successfully without disruption or manipulation from the Russian side, US officials will regard this as evidence that Putin is looking for a way out. Otherwise, a new round of sanctions will be enacted. These will be designed to cause real pain across whole sectors of the Russian economy.  US officials hope that the Europeans will be equally robust, but are aware that the needs to maintain their Russian markets may lead to some weakening. Meanwhile, officials are increasingly concerned that their focus on Ukraine has taken attention away from Syria where the regime has recently made significant gains on the battlefield. On May 15^th Secretary of State Kerry will attend the next meeting of the London 11 friends of Syria.  With the Syrian opposition now being granted official diplomatic status in Washington, there is now renewed interest in supplying the rebels with sophisticated weaponry against aircraft and tanks. Concerns that these weapons might fall into the wrong hands remains deeply embedded in the Intelligence community and will curtail options for dramatic change, even though the military urgency is increasing..."

"A more radical & violent al-Qaeda current moving operations to Saudi Arabia'

"... The division of al-Qaeda in Syria into Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS will not be limited to Syria, with the split appearing elsewhere. The position of al-Qaeda in Yemen is ambiguous regarding the two groups in Syria, and it has preferred to stay silent and not take sides. However, some leaders of al-Qaeda in Yemen made statements in support of ISIS at the expense of Jabhat al-Nusra.
Monitoring social media reveals that the armed conflict between Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS in Syria has caused fractures between al-Qaeda supporters in other countries, including Saudi Arabia. This fracture will cause the emergence of a more radical and violent al-Qaeda current, via ISIS, whose supporters on social media do not hide their desire to move their operations and bombings to Saudi Arabia ..."

Egypt and Israel to reach another gas deal

"... Analysts say the structure of the deal, in which a foreign company uses Egypt only as a transit point for exports, could offer Cairo a way to minimise domestic political backlash...."

New Gestures to Opposition Unlikely to Change U.S. Syria Policy

"... In particular, the administration remains strongly opposed to providing surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to the rebels for fear that they could eventually fall into the wrong hands, most importantly radical Islamist forces aligned with or sympathetic to Al Qaeda.SAMs, however, are at the top of the shopping list brought by the leader of the main external opposition coalition, Ahmad Al-Jarba, and the latest head of its military wing, Gen. Abdul-Ilah Al-Bashir, who are meeting with top administration officials, very possibly including Obama himself, key lawmakers, newspaper editorial boards, and think tanks over the next week..."

U.N. Probe Chief Doubtful on Syria Sarin Exposure Claims

"... The indication that the overwhelming majority in the sample had very little or no exposure to Sarin was particularly significant, because those in the sample had been chosen by local opposition authorities as being among the most serious affected survivors. The data suggest that the Syrian opposition and its external supporters had vastly exaggerated the scope and severity of the attack...."

... that leads us to the attack: it was, as many US & EUR intelligence officials & Sy Hersh have suggested: an insurgent/jihadis kitchen that went sour, with attempts to drag the US into an aggression!

International Crisis Group : Flight of Icarus? The PYD’s Precarious Rise in Syria

"... Secondly, suspected collaboration with the regime has taken a toll on its popularity. The Damascus authorities have maintained a light albeit firm presence in PYD-controlled areas, reportedly acting mostly beneath the surface. Even as they relinquished control over certain state assets (notably administrative and security buildings) to the PYD, they have maintained their hold on, and continue to disseminate, state resources without which the Rojava project would wither..."

'If it quacks ...!'

 'Earlier in Homs!'

"... These rebel fighters have become weary of the war effort, and are seeking ways out of the devastating conflict that has killed over 140,000 people and ravaged the country’s infrastructure."Let's admit it: Time has come for an agreement," Abdel says. "Without a US intervention, we cannot win, it's clear. But we can prevent Assad from governing and [force] him to compromise. This is the red line: Assad must go."
The model, he says, is Homs, where cease-fires are now beginning to appeal to weary rebel fighters in Aleppo. "We are not surrendering, ..."

Fmr. French ambassador to Tehran: "The Iranians are set to resolve the conflict over their nuclear program as fast as possible, once and for all"

"... To date, negotiators on both sides of the talks over Iran’s controversial nuclear program, which resume next week, have been remarkably discreet. Even at the political level, people have been unusually quiet. This is an excellent omen. In the past, too many opportunities have been nipped in the bud due to an excess of statements calibrated for domestic purposes (a special mention to Wendy Sherman, the chief US negotiator, for saying so little, amiably, in many background meetings with the press). The involvement of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in the negotiations has also been of inestimable value. The Agency offers unique expertise and notarizes regularly the way in which Iran complies with its commitments. It contributes therefore decisively to the smooth progression of the discussions.Quite unexpectedly, Iran’s negotiators have been the driving force in this process. They have seized President Hassan Rouhani’s initiative to solve the conflict over Iran’s nuclear program and have kept it ever since, setting the targets as well as the tempo. Iran’s foreign minister and lead negotiator, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said on April 7 that the drafting of the final agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (the U.S., Britain, France, China, and Russia plus Germany) should start in May, and that all efforts should be taken to complete the negotiations by the official deadline of July. The Iranians seem set to resolve the conflict over their nuclear program as fast as possible, once and for all...."

Israel will not stop spying on the US!

Newsweek;

".....  According to classified briefings on legislation that would lower visa restrictions on Israeli citizens, Jerusalem’s efforts to steal U.S. secrets under the cover of trade missions and joint defense technology contracts have “crossed red lines.” 

Israel’s espionage activities in America are unrivaled and unseemly, counterspies have told members of the House Judiciary and Foreign Affairs committees, going far beyond activities by other close allies, such as Germany, France, the U.K. and Japan. A congressional staffer familiar with a briefing last January called the testimony “very sobering…alarming…even terrifying.” Another staffer called it “damaging.” .. 

The Jewish state’s primary target: America’s industrial and technical secrets.    

. “But this is the first time congressional aides have indicated that intelligence and national security concerns also are considerations in weighing Israel’s admission into the visa waiver program,” Jonathan Broder, the foreign and defense editor for CQ Roll Call, a Capitol Hill news site, wrote last month. He quoted a senior House aide as saying, “The U.S. intelligence community is concerned that adding Israel to the visa waiver program would make it easier for Israeli spies to enter the country.”..."

Iraq, world’s car bomb capital

"... Though that ban appears to have been successful in preventing car bombs, the elections were still marred by violence. As the polls closed, Agence France-Press (AFP) had recorded at least 53 attacks throughout the country — including mortar attacks, roadside bombs, and suicide bombers — leaving at least 14 people dead and 36 wounded. It was just the latest sign of how violence is surging to levels not seen since the height of the country’s civil war.The statistics show just how precipitously violence has risen in the years following the American withdrawal. During this year alone, AFP’s Baghdad bureau has recorded more than 3,000 violent deaths, putting the country on pace for more than 12,000 casualties by the end of 2014. By comparison, AFP recorded less than 7,000 violent deaths in all of 2013. In 2012, the Brookings Institute tallied roughly 5,200 casualties among civilians and security forces, and 4,800 such casualties in 2011..."

With Washington’s Syria Gambit in Tatters, Iran’s ‘Smart Power’ Strategy Working

"... One of the more striking things about this story is that, according to the Wall Street Journal, the talks between the Syrian government and opposition fighters that produced this agreement were “brokered by the United Nations and the Iranian Embassy in Damascus.”  Western discourse about Syria wants to limit any discussion of a “peace process” in Syria to the Geneva process—but the United States and its Western partners have rendered the Geneva process utterly dysfunctional by their continued insistence on Assad’s departure as an essential precondition for a political settlement.  By contrast, the Islamic Republic of Iran, by having a clear political strategy of supporting elections and by being willing to deal with all relevant players—even “a hard-line Sunni Muslim rebel group,” as the Wall Street Journal describes its interlocutors in Homs—is actually able to accomplish things on the ground in Syria.So, which parties are in fact marginalizing themselves in regional affairs by unreservedly aligning themselves with one side—and refusing to have anything to do with the other side—in the Syrian conflict? ...."

"There's got to be something more than throwing weapons and suitcases of money,"

"... "If the Americans refuse to give us anti-aircraft (missiles), for example, why doesn't Saudi give it to us?" a Syrian rebel commander in Aleppo whose brigade fights alongside the extremist al-Nusra Front told Reuters by Skype.In private, American and Saudi officials defend a relationship that in many ways remains strong and broad-based...."The frustration with the Saudis was that they never gave us a plan," a former senior U.S. diplomat who worked in the region told Reuters. The former diplomat said there had to be a strategy that included pulling the opposition together into a political and military union dominated by moderates, while arm-twisting Assad's main backers in the Security Council: Russia and China. "There's got to be something more than throwing weapons and suitcases of money," the former diplomat said....."We want the Americans to use their Tomahawks and F16s and beat the hell out of Bashar al-Assad. But at the same time I can see the Americans saying to the Saudis 'You guys have F15s too'," said Jamal Khashoggi, head of a Saudi television news channel owned by a nephew of King Abdullah....Still, cooperation has improved in recent months, American officials believe, and U.S.-made rockets have started to appear on the battlefield. One reason for the better atmosphere between the allies may be the departure from office this year of intelligence chief, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who was running Saudi policy on Syria. His abrasive manner and sometimes erratic way of working caused friction with the Americans. However, Washington still wants more openness on the Saudi side, said a diplomatic source in the Gulf, one of several interviewed for this article.But the source added that the Saudis still felt left out on a limb by last year's non-strike. "They see brush fires all around them and are concerned Washington is not doing more to help the Syrian opposition," the diplomatic source said....."

We can & should trust MSM: UBL as a 'warrior poet'

The President Strikes a Nerve |

"... It ought to be played—because the Iraq War was the biggest and costliest U.S. endeavor ever in the Middle East, because we continue to suffer from the domestic as well as the regional consequences of that misadventure, because what was bad about that war has parallels in what could easily happen with some current issues if they are not properly handled, and because it is astounding that the biggest promoters of the Iraq War somehow still seem to have an audience even though they have been proven to be guilty of gross malpractice as policy analysts.... 

On Syria, for example, McKeon says that “arming moderate rebel factions and restoring the U.S. military posture in the Mediterranean” could have prevented use of chemical weapons “or even shortened the conflict.” How? The divisions among opposition groups, the domination of the more extreme ones, and the fight-to-the-death determination of the regime's supporters make very unlikely that a further (beyond what Gulf Arabs were doing anyway) arming of the hard-to-identify “moderates” would have had such desired effects..."

The South Sudanese monsters are OURS to protect!

WaPo;

"... In 2012, the administration reportedly led an effort to block a U.N. Security Council proposal to impose sanctions on South Sudan for corruption and human rights abuses, Royce said at the hearing..."

'The bad old days of great-power security competition are coming back'

"... The first problem arose from hubris. Convinced that no one could stand up to America's daunting combination of might and right, members of the U.S. foreign-policy elite began expanding NATO in the mid-1990s, but without giving much thought to its potential costs and risks, most notably the possibility that this expansion would adversely affect relations with Russia. They also committed the United States to containing Iraq and Iran simultaneously and eventually decided to try to transform much of the Middle East essentially at gunpoint. The adverse results are painfully obvious: a heightened danger from terrorism, a costly debacle in Iraq, the quagmire in Afghanistan, and a deteriorating relationship with Moscow. Yet even a steady diet of setbacks did not end America's evangelical impulses entirely, as NATO's ill-fated intervention in Libya in 2011 and the protracted drone wars in Yemen, Pakistan, and elsewhere attest. Not only did these mistakes cost several trillion dollars and thousands of lives, but they also diverted attention from more fundamental long-term challenges..."

"Significant blow"

"... Rebels in Homs are to abandon their stronghold in the Old City area in a deal that means the Syrian military will control of all but one neighbourhood of the country's third city....
If the deal is honoured, it will place Syria's resurgent military in firm control of a strategically important strip from Latakia in the north-west to Damascus – a significant blow to the opposition's three-year campaign to oust Bashar al-Assad...."

For the long haul!

Via MoA, in Ynet

"... And then one of them added bitterly: "I guess we need another intifada to create the circumstances that would allow progress."

The stories & nightmares of the MSM

"... the Egyptian media “seems to be gunning for these youth activists and depicting them as either not loyal to the new order, or as potential Trojan horses for the Muslim Brotherhood, or as troublemakers and people responsible for the insecurity and upheaval over the last few years.” April 6 denies the claims that it takes foreign funding, printed regularly in the regime-friendly press and a frequent accusation used here to discredit political opponents...."

Crocker: "That is probably how this will end!"

"... Asked by Al-Monitor if Iranian-Saudi rapprochement might also be useful, as it was in ending Lebanon’s civil war in 1989, Crocker said the “sheer exhaustion of the participants” and the fact that Syria was victorious in shoring up its influence in Lebanon “ended that phase of the civil war. … Syrian forces were running the show. That is probably how this [the Syrian civil war] will end because of what happens on the ground, not because of some grand Saudi-Iranian bargain,” which Crocker thought is unlikely...."

Pink Floyd’s Roger Waters & Nick Mason: Why Rolling Stones shouldn’t play in Israel

"...  we, the two surviving founders of Pink Floyd, have united in support of Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS), a growing, nonviolent global human rights movement initiated by Palestinian civil society in 2005 to end Israel’s occupation, racial discrimination and denial of basic Palestinian rights.The BDS movement is modeled on the successful nonviolent movements that helped end Jim Crow in the American South and apartheid in South Africa. Indeed, key figures who led the South African freedom struggle, like Archbishop Desmond Tutu and Mandela’s close associate, Ahmed Kathrada, have come out in support of BDS for Palestinian rights. BDS offers us all a way to nonviolently pressure the Israeli government to fully realize that its injustices against the Palestinian people are legally and morally unacceptable and unsustainable...."

ICG: "Turkey should work with Iran to de-escalate foreign involvement in the Syrian war .."

 International Crisis Group

"...While Turkey has successfully contained internal sectarian unrest, its Syria policy is highly unpopular domestically, not least with its large Alevi and Kurdish popu­lations. Feeling betrayed by Western failure to live up to promises of intervention or more support, Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has re­calibrated its foreign policy in the past year. Its narrative has changed to include jihadi elements of the militant opposition in the growing list of security threats from Syria, along with the regime and its agents. In 2013, it reversed its all-out objection to engaging the Syrian Kurds’ Democratic Union Party (PYD), linked to Turkey’s insurgent Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and in March 2014, it let UN aid convoys cross into PYD-controlled areas when Syria finally opened one border crossing for UN humanitarian aid. In the bigger picture, Turkey wants to avoid prolonged military entanglement, but violent border clashes and occasional aerial confrontations with the regime increase risks of an escalation. Even so, extensive Turkish military intervention is unlikely without at least an international mandate and backing.The AKP leadership’s resolve to see Syrian President Bashar al-Assad gone stays strong, as does its support for the mainstream Syrian opposition. It hosts rebels and their families in well-built refugee camps, allows political and military opposition bodies to convene on its soil and gives logistical and material assistance. But Turkey has never been a main backer of the militant opposition inside Syria, and Gulf actors have gained more political influence. Still, involvement with the opposition’s main political body, the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, helped garner support for Geneva II peace talks and ensure a degree of Kurdish representation. Turkey should use its leverage as a transit ground for supplies to rebel groups in northern Syria to encourage their compliance with international humanitarian law and non-sectarian practices. By maintaining open communication with regional counterparts, including Iran, Turkey should work reciprocally to de-escalate foreign involvement in the Syrian war and build an environment more conducive to peace...., ...  Recommendations To the government of Turkey: 

. Continue directly engaging Iran and other regional actors to find a political solution in Syria, including encouraging reciprocal steps from regional counterparts to achieve a mutual reduction in their involvement in the conflict and eventually end proxy warfare. 

. Invigorate recent efforts to demonstrate greater sectarian and ethnic neutrality in foreign policy. 

. Show zero tolerance to border breaches by jihadi elements, whether from or into Syria...."

Lebanese Army & Syrian al Qaeda clash again

Affrontements entre soldats libanais et Syriens armés dans le jurd de Ersal

"Unaccounted for"

"... The United States has spent $103 billion to rebuild Afghan roads, bridges, schools, hospitals and other infrastructure since 2002, more than in any previous overseas reconstruction effort.Almost $64 billion of the aid has come in the last four years, creating a deluge of money that the U.S. government can’t track and which the fragile Afghan economy can’t absorb, the report said. As a result, it said, large sums of aid are unaccounted for and major projects have not been finished or were done poorly..."

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/04/30/225990/us-report-offers-grim-portrait.html?sp=/99/100/&ihp=1#storylink=cpy

Lebanon fails to elect new president - again

 Al Jazeera English

Good news from Libya

"TRIPOLI (Reuters) - Gunmen stormed Libya's parliament on Tuesday and started shooting, forcing lawmakers to abandon a vote on the country's next prime minister, a parliamentary spokesman said...."

Erdogan sees quick normalization with Israel

 | AFP.com

"... Erdogan said he is prepared to normalize ties with Israel within days or weeks Erdogan, speaking on US broadcaster PBS late Monday, said US President Barack Obama was instrumental in arranging a phone call between the leaders of Israel and Turkey, which have been at odds since a 2010 Israeli commando raid on a Gaza-bound flotilla of aid ships left nine pro-Palestinian Turkish activists dead..."

Let Us Now Praise Murderous Men; Lebanese Presidential Candidates, Considered

"... Reading and watching Geagea give press statements on his candidacy, I remember the space of terror he used to occupy for myself and my friends in Tariq al-Jadidah. I remember watching mortars explode from a window with a view of the northern coast with my grade school classmates during the Aoun-Geagea war. I remember a year spent in a mountainous Beirut suburb, away from school and from an apartment untenably close to “the Green Line.” Today, I try to imagine what a Palestinian in Lebanon thinks when she sees Geagea on TV confidently lay out why he should be president. Does her heartbreak as one by one, journalists fail to ask Geagea about his involvement in war time massacres? Has her heart been broken too many times in Lebanon, and does she simply change the channel? No one asks Geagea, or his rival Gemeyyel, about their wartime alliances with Israel, or their complicity in the siege of West Beirut, or their wars with rival Maronite leaders that left thousands dead and maimed..."

Too little, too late!

"... The small number of BGM-71 missiles, about two decades old and hardly better than similar Russian and French models acquired by the rebels from allies and the black market over the past year, will not change the game in the fight against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the fighters say. Three years into the war, the government has pushed opposition forces out of many of their most important strongholds, deferring their hopes of victory indefinitely..."

London looking to testaure diplomatic ties with Tehran

"(Reuters) - A senior British diplomat made a brief visit to Tehran on Monday for talks with officials on the strained ties between the two countries and on Iran's nuclear program, Iran's official IRNA news agency reported.Earlier, IRNA said Tehran and London were looking to restore full diplomatic ties, all but severed after a 2011 raid on Britain's embassy in the Iranian capital..."

Jordan reels from week of violence in Maan

Al Jazeera English

"Amman, Jordan - Residents of Jordan's southern city of Maan were attempting to recover after a week of violence, sparked by the alleged killing of a civilian by security forces on Tuesday.After reports of "relative calm" in the city, located 200km south of the capital Amman, police on Sunday fired tear gas and guns near an elementary school in the Iskan neighbourhood, reportedly searching for wanted persons.Dozens were arrested during the raid, local residents told Al Jazeera...."

Kerry: Israel risks becoming apartheid state

"..."A two-state solution will be clearly underscored as the only real alternative. Because a unitary state winds up either being an apartheid state with second class citizens - or it ends up being a state that destroys the capacity of Israel to be a Jewish state," said Kerry. .."

Ukraine funnels light arms to Jihadis in Syria via Germany

"Der Spiegel has just published a report on the funneling of Ukranian arms to jihadists in Syria via Germany. The following is a translation of the German text by Emily-Dische Becker:"According to information obtained by Der Spiegel, a Ukrainian state enterprise is delivering rifles to Germany. The German federal government allegedly doesn’t know what is happening with the weapons. Are they being used in the war in Syria?According to information obtained by SPIEGEL, the Ukraine is apparently doing arms deals through Germany. As the German Foreign Office acknowledged in response to a request by Die Linke (the Left party), the Ukrainian state company Ukroboronprom has been exporting semi-automatic rifles of the SKS Simonov variety to Germany. These imports were approved by the responsible government agencies.
The Foreign Office however is concealing where the weapons are ending up in Germany: The delivery terms of the German contract partner are “a business and a trade secret.” The rifles, it says evasively, are being delivered to Germany “for the purpose of modification.” The American Jamestown Foundation think-tank, which is said to enjoy strong historical ties to U.S. intelligence agencies, believes that the weapons are being delivered from Germany to Syrian rebels. Jamestown estimates the delivery of 54,000 small arms in the years 2011 and 2012. These could have been used for ” covert operations ” in Syria.
The federal government is aware of the suspicions of the Americans, but does not want to investigate them. As stated in their response to the Left party’s inquiry, they have “no findings of [their] own on this matter.” Neither the German army, nor the military counterintelligence agency, nor the federal intelligence service (BND) are involved in the purchase of weapons [the federal government claims].The Left party’s expert for foreign affairs, Sevim Dagdelen, is alarmed by the government’s ignorance: “It is scandalous that the federal government can not convey anything about the whereabouts of these weapons. ” To make matter worse, Berlin “can not dispel the suspicion that these weapons have been passed on to Islamist holy warriors to cause a regime change in Syria. “

Armed Kurds kidnaps two Turkish soldiers

 report

"... The abduction took place late Saturday, after the jailed leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) issued a statement warning of a possible return to violence..."

The SNC & Slaughter reading from the same script!

"... “I think a lot can be done vis-a-vis the Russians,” he said. “We see an opportunity in telling our friends that, 'Hey, you could get back at Putin in Syria.'”

Pro-Western repression in Ukraine ...

"... When the protesters in Bahrain or Palestine or Ukraine are killed by a pro-US government, they always manage to die in 'clashes"  Yet, armed protesters are innocent civilians when killed by a government that is not aligned with the US. ..."

Here's why Putin will not blink first!

"Introducing the quadrennial diplomacy review on 22^nd April, Secretary of State Kerry commented that contemporary diplomacy is “more difficult than the Cold War.” From conversations we hold with senior Administration figures, we certainly get the impression that US foreign policy decision-makers currently feel that the international deck is stacked against them. Symptomatic of this sentiment is the fact that as President Obama continues his visit to East Asia, much media comment has focused on doubts about the credibility of the US global posture. As one senior State Department strategist commented privately to us: “Little is going right. We cannot budge Putin on Ukraine, Asian trade talks are stalled, the Middle East peace process is on life support, Assad is winning in Syria, the North Koreans are threatening a nuclear test. We do not have the means or the will to respond to horrendous massacres in South Sudan and the Central African Republic.”  A new test of US will power will present itself in the coming days when, if as expected, the Russians do not back down over Ukraine and a new set of sanctions is announced. There is some tough talk in Washington about how broad and painful these will be, but Treasury officials tell us that sanctions that both damage Russian interests while sparing pain from US corporations are hard to find. The final sanctions may turn out to have plenty of loopholes...."

Haass: "The US' push for regime change has brought about “cures” worse than the disease"

 Haass .... 

"Yet history shows time and time again that it can be difficult to oust a leader, and even when it is not, it can be extremely difficult to help bring about a stable, alternative authority that is better in terms of American preferences. The result is that the United States often finds itself with an uncomfortable choice: Either it must back off its declared goals, which makes it look feckless and encourages widespread defiance, or it has to make good on its aims, which would require enormous investments in blood, treasure, and time rarely justified by the interests or results, ....,   ... The result is that Assad has not gone and the principal opposition is worse, from an American perspective; it is only a matter of time before the United States will likely have to swallow the bitter pill of tolerating Assad while supporting acceptable opposition elements against the jihadis. Negotiating efforts that ignore realities on the ground will continue to bear little if any fruit...."

Jordan anti-terrorism law sparks concern

Al Jazeera English

"... Jameel Nemri, a member of the Jordanian Parliament and a strong opponent of the amended law, said it would improperly expand the role of Jordan's State Security Court: "Hacking websites and looting are already addressed in Jordan's penal code. [Such] civil crimes are not acts of terrorism and those allegedly accused of any should be tried in civil court," Nemri told Al Jazeera. Jordanian officials, meanwhile, say the law will help to protect the country's stability and prevent young people from falling victim to extremism. Government spokesman Mohamad al-Momani previously cited concerns about extremist groups in Syria taking their fight to Jordanian territory ..."

Jordan anti-terrorism law sparks concern

Al Jazeera English

"... Jameel Nemri, a member of the Jordanian Parliament and a strong opponent of the amended law, said it would improperly expand the role of Jordan's State Security Court: "Hacking websites and looting are already addressed in Jordan's penal code. [Such] civil crimes are not acts of terrorism and those allegedly accused of any should be tried in civil court," Nemri told Al Jazeera. Jordanian officials, meanwhile, say the law will help to protect the country's stability and prevent young people from falling victim to extremism. Government spokesman Mohamad al-Momani previously cited concerns about extremist groups in Syria taking their fight to Jordanian territory ..."

"Town by town, 'doomed' Assad closes in on Syria Victory"

SundayTimes: 

"A YEAR ago, following a string of victories, Syria’s rebels fought their way so close to the capital, Damascus, that President Bashar al-Assad’s regime appeared doomed.Many commentators predicted his fall within days; others gave him only weeks to survive. Yet 12 months later the tide has turned dramatically in favour of the Syrian president, who has outmanoeuvred his opponents both at home and abroad.
In the past few days, a string of villages and towns in the strategically important Qalamoun region have fallen to government forces — among them the Christian town of Maaloula, ... Homs, once known as “the capital of the revolution”, is on the verge of falling to a Syrian army offensive.... Assad predicted that the main battles could be over by the end of the year. “This is a turning point in the crisis,” he predicted.
Assad’s closest ally, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, went further, saying the Syrian leader no longer faced the prospect of being overthrown.
What has changed in the course of the year? Based on extensive interviews with senior sources close to Hezbollah’s military command in Syria and briefings from high-ranking army officers, I am convinced the answer lies in the decision by Nasrallah and Assad to throw Hezbollah into the fray, thus changing the course of the war....
There was further danger to Hezbollah as jihadist rebels began to discuss the prospect of extending their holy war to Lebanon. This would have put them in a powerful position to strangle the group by severing its supply lines from Syria. As a source close to Hezbollah described it to me recently: “Syria is Hezbollah’s lungs.” He added: “It doesn’t matter how many weapons Hezbollah keeps in Lebanon. In any war with Israel, their stocks would be depleted. Resupply is vital.”
By early last year, 70% of Syria’s territory had slipped from Assad’s control.... Assad had been leaning heavily on the advice of his generals, who were trained in conventional warfare, and were ill-suited to a guerrilla struggle. It was time for a wholesale change of tactics, he decided, and that could come only from Hezbollah.
Nasrallah went to Tehran to seek religious guidance from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, who gave his blessing to sending fighters. Khamenei said it was a religious obligation to fight the jihadist rebels.
Nasrallah’s military advisers insisted that Syria’s army, reinforced by his men, had to go on the offensive. With the backing of Russia and Iran, a strategy was formulated to drive the rebels out of Damascus and win back control of the strategic corridor that links the Syrian capital to the Mediterranean coast.
Initially Hezbollah said its intervention would be confined to retaking the Syrian border city of Qusair and defending the Lebanese villages bordering Syria.
But Hezbollah’s fighters had underestimated their enemy. They soon found themselves in danger of being bottled up by rebel forces and realised they needed to capture far more territory than they had envisaged. This was now a full-scale war for them.
First, Qusair had to be taken in order to block the flow of rebels and weapons from Lebanon into rebel-held Homs.
Hezbollah sent several thousand fighters to the front while the Syrian army provided artillery and air support. In a sign of how closely they were now working together, Hezbollah was granted access to Syria’s military command operations centre for the first time.
Qusair proved a vital learning curve for Hezbollah, fighting far from its own terrain. The organisation was taken by surprise by the rebels’ prowess. In the first few days of battle, it took heavy casualties and was forced to regroup and change tactics.
After three weeks of heavy fighting, in which much of the town was destroyed by shell and rocket fire, Qusair was finally taken back into the hands of the regime last June.
The scale and ferocity of the battle persuaded Hezbollah’s commanders they needed to widen their strategic objectives. Homs, a rebel stronghold, had to be captured in order to choke off the rebels’ supply lines into Lebanon.
Today Homs no longer poses a threat to either Hezbollah or the regime, although it has a rump of rebel fighters, blamed for a car bomb outside a mosque on Friday that killed at least 14 people....
In the next stage of their plan, the Syrian army and Hezbollah moved their attention to Qalamoun, the region where it made significant gains last week.... Hezbollah fighters spearheaded the attack after the Syrian army had softened up the rebels by pounding their positions with artillery, rocket launchers and mortars...
Despite the triumphs at Maaloula and Qalamoun, an all-out victory for Assad is still far from assured. Rebel brigades have made significant inroads in the north in recent weeks. Last month they captured Kassab, the sole remaining government-controlled border post with Turkey, cementing their hold on Syria’s northern border.
Though Kassab has little strategic importance, the well co-ordinated attack appears to have taken Assad’s military by surprise...Despite the setbacks, Hezbollah has emerged as a bigger and more influential player in the region as a result of its intervention..."

“Assad’s days are numbered!”

"...Ms. Psaki was asked if the administration still believed that “Assad’s days are numbered.” “We do,” she affirmed ..."

Riots & death in Jordan

"... A group of men reportedly fired at a police patrol that was on routine duty in Maan, some 220km south of Amman, at around 6pm on Tuesday, prompting the officers to respond, a Public Security Department statement said.“The shooting resulted in the death of one citizen,” the PSD added.The incident sparked riots in the city, with angry residents blocking roads, Gendarmerie Public Relations Department Director Lt. Col. Ahmad Abu Hammad said...He noted that the municipality announced a three-day mourning following the shooting incident. 

Most of the stores, public schools, and Al Hussein Bin Talal University closed following calls by the municipality."

France unveils 'Gran Plan' to fight Syria bound islamists

"... In addition, authorities will withdraw passports from individuals suspected of wanting to travel to Syria. Foreign residents will be "immediately expelled" if authorities have reason to believe they participated in terrorist operations, the minister said.France, in conjunction with European partners, also plans to increase its monitoring of websites that post videos and other messages inciting jihadi activities. Cazeneuve said he has already traveled to Germany and Austria to coordinate and will shortly be in Britain for talks..."

The Iranian Evolution: A Shift in Tehran and the National Mood

"... Other factors are also at play. According to the World Bank, Iran is an upper income country, and is ranked 75 out of 187 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in terms of purchasing power per capita, just below Turkey and slightly above Brazil and South Africa. This income status may have some bearing on popular demands, which seem far more focused on improving government services and reducing corruption than changing or reformulating institutional power in the country..."

Turkish troops inside Syrian territory ambushed & disarmed by al Qaeda

"... ISTANBUL — Turkish troops conducting a resupply mission to a small Turkish military post inside Syrian territory were ambushed and detained Wednesday by Islamic extremists affiliated with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, according to Turkish media reports.
The troops were later returned to Turkey, news outlets in the Turkish city of Sanliurfa said. But it wasn’t clear what happened to the four armored personnel carriers they’d been traveling in. One report said ISIS had kept the vehicles, which had been seen flying ISIS flags..."

'Anne-Marie Slaughter reminds us why we’re glad that she doesn’t work in government anymore'

".... The larger, glaring flaw with Slaughter’s proposal is that she proposes that the U.S. commence hostilities against Syria purely for the sake of making a point to the Russians. There doesn’t appear to be any concern for what effect U.S. intervention would have on Syria itself, or whether it might trigger Iranian retaliation against U.S. clients elsewhere in the region. For the sake of trying to intimidate Russia into changing its behavior in Ukraine, Slaughter is willing to call for military action that could lead to a wider regional war and might derail ongoing diplomacy with Iran. Her argument is the epitome of everything wrong with mindless, knee-jerk interventionism."

Dellusion!

Putting Syrian lives, American lives & treasures at risk with the use of 'might not' & 'could': priceless!

"... To lead effectively, in both the national and the global interest, the US must demonstrate its readiness to shoulder the full responsibilities of power. Striking Syria might not end the civil war there, but it could prevent the eruption of a new one in Ukraine..."

'Jihadists Now Control Secretive U.S. Base in Libya'

"... In other words, Tantoush is now the chief of a training camp the U.S. and Libyan governments had hoped would train Libyan special operations forces to catch militants like Tantoush. .."

Citizens Commission: 'The the US government allowed arms to flow to al-Qaeda-linked militants!'

"... 'The United States switched sides in the war on terror with what we did in Libya, knowingly facilitating the provision of weapons to known al-Qaeda militias and figures,' Clare Lopez, a member of the commission and a former CIA officer, told MailOnline.She blamed the Obama administration for failing to stop half of a $1 billion United Arab Emirates arms shipment from reaching al-Qaeda-linked militants.'Remember, these weapons that came into Benghazi were permitted to enter by our armed forces who were blockading the approaches from air and sea,' Lopez claimed. 'They were permitted to come in. ... [They] knew these weapons were coming in, and that was allowed..'The intelligence community was part of that, the Department of State was part of that, and certainly that means that the top leadership of the United States, our national security leadership, and potentially Congress – if they were briefed on this – also knew about this.'..."

Israel: 'Good results'

"... Hezbollah's efforts to continue targeting Israelis are part of a pattern of action which has been going on since Mugniyah's assassination in 2008. Since then, his authorities have been divided between at least four people. Hamiyah is one of them, and one of his jobs is to achieve revenge.
Those same intelligence abilities which, according to the foreign press, made it possible to locate – and assassinate – Mugniyah likely helped thwart Hezbollah's attempt to avenge his death..."

'Turkey 'cooking the books' to exploit the uncertainty of a White House seeking oreign policy successes

"... The reality is that numerous former intelligence officials, like myself, have long known most of the story surrounding the on-again off-again intervention by the United States and others in Syria, but what was needed was a Sy Hersh, with his unmatched range of contacts deep in both the Pentagon as well as at CIA and State Department, to stitch it all together with corroboration from multiple sources. In a sense it was a secret that wasn’t really very well hidden but which the mainstream media wouldn’t touch with a barge pole because it revealed that the Obama Administration, just like the Bushies who preceded it, has been actively though clandestinely conspiring to overthrow yet another government in the Middle East. One might well conclude that the White House is like the Bourbon Kings of France in that it never forgets anything but never learns anything either..."

Antagonising Iran: A strategic miscalculation?

Al Jazeera English

"... Nevertheless, US President Barack Obama and other senior US officials continue to threaten Iran with military strikes and to refrain from explicitly acknowledging Iran's full nuclear rights. This has increased suspicions among Iranians that the US still clings to a destructive, zero-sum worldview and that it believes it can somehow force Rouhani to sign away Iran's sovereign rights. This is a potentially dangerous misunderstanding of the Iranian president's position and could lead to disastrous Western miscalculations..."

SAG' offensive before election

"... By then, the regime might have gained control over a continuous geographical area stretching from Syria’s border with Jordan and Lebanon, all the way to Aleppo and passing through Damascus, its outskirts, and East and West Ghouta. That would be necessary for the regime to conduct the presidential elections it wanted..."

'Russia-US crisis may soon spread to Near East'

"... This information came as no surprise to Moscow, which as Russian sources say, was already aware of deliveries of antitank weaponry. According to them, an expansion of deliveries was discussed during President Barack Obama's visit to Riyadh on March 28... Moscow analysts believe that the following circumstances played a role in changing the course of the US administration.
First of these is the worsening in Russian-US relations due to the reunification of Russia and Crimea, alongside the strengthened role of neoconservative elements in the Washington bureaucracy, who are anxious to spite Russia wherever they can, and to hinder normalization of US-Iranian relations. These are the very same people who worked behind the scenes during the coup in Kiev. As Robert Merry recently wrote, referring to William Pfaff, Victoria Nuland “even identified the man who should replace Yanukovych after his ouster,” and “the United States spent some $5 billion in fostering 'democratic institutions' in Ukraine designed to nudge the country away from Russian sway.” He said that only “saner heads would have understood how dangerous this kind of activity can be.”
Second is America’s desire to support its Saudi partners, whose Syrian policy has evoked a serious internal crisis in the Saudi Arabian monarchy, the leaders of which blame the United States for all of their problems.
Third is the fear that the antigovernment forces in Syria could fall, which would turn the mantra of “Assad must go” into merely wishful thinking.
Most Russian experts believe that the supply of modern arms to the Syrian rebels:

• Will not guarantee victory for the detachments that receive them; moreover, the suppliers will hardly be able to ensure that these weapons will not be seized by competing groups of fighters, including international terrorists.

• Will exacerbate the rivalry between the rebel groups, rather than promote their unification.

• Will impel government forces and their supporters to take harsher actions and will intensify the armed confrontation, costing even more civilian lives.

• Will increase the flow of refugees.

• Will force the pro-Damascus regional powers to mobilize even more personnel and material resources to fight the rebels...."

'Syria's al Qaeda groups turning to Qatari ransom to finance its activities'

"... BEIRUT — The release over the weekend of four French journalists whom a rogue al Qaida offshoot had held for months in Syria may indicate that the group is turning increasingly to ransom to finance its activities.The French government has denied that it paid a ransom for the journalists, who were kidnapped in two separate incidents last summer. But two European intelligence agents involved in the cases of other hostages said they thought the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria had received a sizable payment for releasing the journalists.
The payment was brokered by an unidentified Persian Gulf country that’s widely thought to be Qatar, which has brokered and paid ransoms on behalf of hostages in three previous incidents ..."

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/04/21/225086/analysts-ransom-helps-militant.html?sp=/99/117/416/#storylink=cpy

'Testing the Waters'

"... A senior Syrian opposition official in Washington who works closely with the Americans said the TOWs were part of a small, tailored program coordinated by U.S. and Saudi intelligence services to "test the waters" for a potentially larger arming effort down the road.The official said the introduction of a small number of TOWs will have limited impact on the battlefield.The main objective is to develop a relationship between vetted fighters and U.S. trainers that will give the Obama administration the confidence to increase supplies of sophisticated weaponry.The U.S. has blocked Saudi Arabia from giving rebels Chinese-made man-portable air defense systems, known as Manpads.Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia offered to give the opposition Manpads for the first time. But the weapons are still stored in warehouses in Jordan and Turkey because of U.S. opposition, according to Saudis and Syrian opposition figures."Basically, this is supposed to be the next step" in the eyes of rebels and their Saudi backers, Mr. Alani said of the hoped-for antiaircraft artillery.Senior administration officials said the White House remains opposed to providing rebels with Manpads. Antiaircraft and antitank weapons could help the rebels chip away at the regime's two big advantages on the battlefield—air power and heavy armor..."

Hopefully drifting, and that too, is good!

"... On second thought, there is a logic to Israel’s decision to stay away from the UN vote on the Russian invasion. The position presented by Liberman is also not far-fetched. How can a state that has been keeping another people under occupation for 47 years vote against occupation?In addition, experience shows that Israel doesn’t pay a price for ignoring the hand that feeds it with such bounty. At most, anonymous US officials, speaking to Israeli journalists, will express their disappointment at Israel’s ingratitude. Life is fine as long as the defense aid arrives on time and the finger of the US ambassador to the UN keeps going up at votes against the condemnation of Israel’s settlement policy.
As long as the heads of the majority party in the US House of Representatives make pilgrimage to the casino of his friend Sheldon Adelson, the man who is gambling on Israel’s future, Netanyahu can — as the old Jewish saying goes — dance at two weddings at the same time. "

Drifting, and that is good!

"... The relationship between Riyadh and Washington has been tied to four essential pillars in recent decades: Saudi hegemony over the oil market, the kingdom’s spiritual status in the Islamic world, Gulf security and the war on terrorism after 9/11. However, doubts about the future of these four pillars have emerged.Saudi Arabia’s control of the oil market depends on its possession of spare capacity, estimated at 2.5 million barrels a day. It is currently not certain that Saudi Arabia will maintain this production capacity. In a report issued by Citigroup in 2012, it was expected that local Saudi oil consumption will weaken this capacity gradually, and the kingdom will have to import fuel by 2030.... Moreover, the United States has become less dependent on oil. (and) Riyadh will no longer be able to use oil as a political weapon, as it did in the 1970s, and will struggle to influence Washington to acquiesce to its regional outlook.
The Two Holy Mosques in Saudi Arabia give it its spiritual power in the Islamic world, but this element is changing for several reasons. First, the new communication revolution has disintegrated power and contributed to establishing several spiritual centers within the Islamic world....  

Second, the kingdom has been involved in regional conflicts against other Islamic forces, whether against Iran or the Muslim Brotherhood. As a result, Saudi Arabia’s influence over Muslims is waning, as indicated by a 2013 Pew Center survey that showed its popularity dwindling in the Middle East.... 
Meanwhile, the war on terrorism, which was considered one of the main commonalities between the two countries in the past decade, has turned into a point of debate between Riyadh and Washington regarding Syria and Egypt. Saudi Arabia supports jihadist Islamic factions in Syria, while Washington considers them to be close to al-Qaeda. Saudi Arabia considers the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt a terrorist organization, while Washington sees it as a political power having the right to participate in the democratic process.
Saudi Arabia is also uncertain of Washington’s commitment to Gulf security. Washington’s perception of security in the Gulf is different than Saudi Arabia’s....."

Bref, Saudia's rulers are rattled & that is good!

President Assad in Maaloula, April 19th, 2014

Syria removes 80 percent of chemical weapons

"... Sigrid Kaag, special coordinator of the joint mission of the United Nations and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, said on Saturday that if the momentum was sustained, Syria should be able to meet its April 27 deadline to hand over all declared chemical agents...."

Optimism at the WH!

"... Our Administration contacts tell us that new sanctions are under preparation that would, as one senior official put it to us, “extract serious pain from the Russian financial sector”. The hope in Washington is that these can be avoided. One key reason is the importance of preserving a constructive Russian contribution to the ongoing nuclear talks with Iran. With signs of Iranian compliance on its undertakings to dilute its stockpile of fissile material, State Department officials have told us that their optimism that a deal can be reached by the late July deadline is rising. All concerned acknowledge that the deal will have to be 100% watertight to pass muster among a very skeptical audience on Capitol Hill. The Administration needs legislative changes if it is to reduce sanctions, so cannot afford to alienate Congress if it is to fulfill its side of any final agreement..."

Father Frans in His Own Words : 'The Syrian 'rebellion' was weaponized from day one!'

In his own words:

"... From the start, the protest movements were not purely peaceful. From the start I saw armed demonstrators marching along in the protests, who began to shoot at the police first. Very often the violence of the security forces has been a reaction to the brutal violence of the armed rebels..."

Two killed in Bahrain car blast

 Al Jazeera English

US Officials: 'Israel is ungrateful!'

"... White House and State Department officials in Washington have built up a great deal of anger over Jerusalem's "neutrality" regarding Russia's invasion of the Crimean Peninsula. Senior figures in the Obama administration have expressed great disappointment with the lack of support from Israel for the American position ...

 While the Americans viewed Israel's behavior as ungrateful, in light of Washington's unshakable support for Jerusalem in the UN, in the Kremlin and in the Russian media Israel's action was seen as an expression of support for Moscow, or at the very least a lack of opposition to the invasion of Ukraine...."

Israel: 'NO radiation chemotherapy allowed to Palestinians!'

(Reuters) "... Treatment in Gaza was rendered harder by the 1993 Oslo interim peace accords because radiation chemotherapy, the two sides agreed, could have military applications. Only five practicing oncologists remain in Gaza, Shannan notes with gloom...."

Funny!

- Al Jazeera English

"... At an extraordinary meeting in Riyadh on Thursday, the ministers agreed that the policies of GCC member states should not undermine the “interests, security and stability” of each other, a statement said.Such policies must also not affect the "sovereignty" of a member state...."