Doha's guests are 'confused'

[Telegraph] "... Key opposition factions with strong followings inside the country pulled out of the plan, which was due to be presented at a conference in Doha, Qatar, today.

Three of the dissident bodies seen as integral to the US-backed initiative said yesterday that they had refused to attend, diplomats and opposition figures told The Daily Telegraph.

"There are too many people against this initiative for it to work now," said a Western diplomatic source in Doha.

The setback came as Turkey said it was in talks to deploy Nato-controlled Patriot missiles on its border with Syria to ward off the regime's cross-border threat.

Ahmet Davutoglu, the Turkish foreign minister, said Nato had a responsibility to protect all member states from external attack, including Turkey.

Riad Seif, the Syria dissident who had championed the movement and was set to emerge as one of the new leaders, withdrew after he lost his seat in the executive council of the main opposition, the Syrian National Council (SNC).

Furious at being publicly side-lined by the conference, the SNC voted against the proposal at its separate convention.

Representatives from the National Coordinating Committee, the Syrian democratic platform, and the Kurdish ethnic minority had rejected the plan.

The plan's failure is a blow to Hillary Clinton, .... The proposal, which was widely known as the "Seif-Ford" initiative, after Robert Ford, the US special envoy to Syria and Mr Seif, has lost ground amid resentment at foreign efforts to impose a solution on Syrians. (Laugh HARD!)

"Everyone feels that this initiative is imposed. .... 

The opposition meeting will go ahead, but any leadership body is likely to have a majority from the SNC, which has little influence on the ground. "It may secure more funding but [the conflict] is about winning the support of the street to regain control. And the street does not support them," said a diplomatic source..."

Deaths in Syria: "counting rebels killed as civilians"

[ McClatchy] "... That leaves it to groups such as the Syrian Network for Human Rights and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (Saudi funded), which also reports government casualties. Both those groups are sympathetic to the rebels, and they often count rebels killed as civilians, leaving their numbers open to debate...."

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/11/06/173808/deaths-in-syria-down-from-peak.html#storylink=cpy

'The result of a reconciliation process that is going nowhere & is radicalizing the Bahraini population'

"... The attack appears to be an amateurish attempt to cause terror and mayhem, achieving no result other than killing innocent expatriate labourers. The quality of the explosive devices was poor, suggesting that the attacks were the work of unsophisticated actors working with little institutional support.Four individuals were arrested for the bombing just one day after it occurred, with Bahrain officials warning darkly that the attacks "bear the hallmark" of Hezbollah. The link to the Lebanese militant organization is crude: Poorly constructed pipe bombs are not Hezbollah's style..."

America's allies: 'Make People stateless!'

[BBC] "..."It is apparent that the action taken by the Bahraini authorities to revoke the citizenships of 31 individuals is intended to punish them for expressing peaceful dissent and thereby intimidate others from exercising their right to freedom of expression," the statement added.Amnesty International said the authorities were making some stateless. ..."

Kadima: "Netanyahu bet on the wrong president and got us into hot water with Obama."

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/

'Escalation'

 'Taliban with Stingers'

[The Brits] "...In a significant departure MPs will be told today that the UK will directly deal with the armed opposition in Syria for the first time.

Previously Britain has only held talks with the political leaders outside the country over a conflict that has left tens of thousands civilians dead and over 1 million people displaced. ..."

... and the

 [French],"...  Follow

hashem ahelbarra‏@hashemahel

Riad Seif told SNC French President Francois Hollande promised him weapons if the Syrian opposition would reunite

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"Payback is a bitch"

 'Sheldon Adelson & Yahoo: Let's go beat Obama!'

".... former Israeli ambassador to Washington, Sallai Meridor, suggested that Obama would not easily forget that Netanyahu had created a perception that Israel wanted Romney to defeat him. Obama is "very strategic, very disciplined", Meridor said during a panel discussion on the U.S. election at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. "But I don't think we can just assume that what happened between them over past four years will have just evaporated," he said. "When people fight for their political life and have the perception that their partner is trying to undermine their chances, it's not going to disappear.""  Reuters

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Yes, "what goes around comes around."  "Payback is a bitch."  Donkeys as well as elephants have long memories.  etc.  I can't remember any more of these old "saws" at the moment.  Seems to me we ought to "unleash" people lke Carville and Plouffe to help the Israelis with their coming election.  "Fair is fair." (ah, another one) As I recall we did that once before with significant effect. 

As for the issue of Bibi's bluster and threats to attack Iran with or without US cooperation and support, I will say again (irony alert) that Israel should safeguard its sovereignty and dignity by doing whatever it wishes to about Iran and should do it alone.  The right wing in Israel "knows" that only a successful (more irony)  Israeli demonstration of its regional hegemony will suffice.  Go for it!   Do it without the US.

And then there is the issue of the Palestinians .  Bibi's coalition has no intention of agreeing to anything like a sizable, truly independent Palestine.  The (more irony) "uppity' Palestinians are trying to sneak into the UN as an observer member state.  If they achieve that goal, Israeli leaders will be liable in the international courts for what they do to a member state.  Good!  pl "

UAE Official on the Muslim Brotherhood: "Thieves who act like God's chosen people!"

"...Dubai Police Chief Dahi Khalfan slammed the Muslim Brotherhood at a seminar in Dubai, comparing the group's organizational structure to "the Mafia."At a seminar held in Dubai on Monday, he claimed that the Muslim Brotherhood used to seize the money allocated to charity and are currently planning to control the treasuries of the states where they operate.
"What we hear about the Brotherhood reminds us of the story of Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves," he said, alleging that like the Mafia, the group has a small decision-making core that controls everything.,,.... "The Brotherhood are acting as God's chosen people and consider themselves to be better-thinking and are full of themselves," he claimed, also alleging that the Brotherhood has a secret organization whose men are the most powerful in the group. ..."

"The new impetus to remake “the Syrian opposition” is as fatally flawed as the initiative that gave rise to the SNC in the first place."

"...the new impetus to remake “the Syrian opposition” is as fatally flawed as the initiative that gave rise to the SNC in the first place.  Regarding Secretary Clinton’s directives, Flynt notes,

“There is no particular reason [the SNC] should accept dictation from Hillary Clinton, but frankly I don’t think that the United States has a coherent policy for dealing with the Syrian opposition; they don’t have a coherent Syria policy…The whole effort to create a unified opposition is doomed to fail…If you just look at the groups that are represented in the SNC, if you look at the groups that are not represented in the SNC, if you look at the groups that are likely to be represented in this new body that will come out of the Doha meetings—these groups have fundamentally irreconcilable interests, objectives, visions for Syria.  If Assad and his government were magically to disappear today, the end result would not be some unified political structure in Syria.  It would be that many of these groups in the so-called ‘opposition’ would be fighting one another.  You cannot create a single unified opposition.” 

As one of the other panelists, Rim Turkmani, amplifies the point, it was clear from the beginning of the Syrian conflict that “any [opposition] coalition is going to fail…The SNC is a coalition of coalitions; and now they are looking at forming something bigger—that is a coalition of the coalitions of the coalitions.”  As for the Obama administration’s latest effort to reshape the Syrian opposition, she holds, “The new equation that the United States is trying to reach is impossible.  They are trying to find a body that represents the whole opposition; at the same time, they are looking for puppets…they are looking for a new government that will never escape the control of the U.S., and that is impossible.”  (Ms. Turkmani is also quite scathing in denouncing the cravenness of the SNC, other opposition groups, and politically ambitious exiles in currying favor with their foreign supporters.)    

Flynt contends that the effort to revitalize the Syrian opposition is doomed to fail not only because of the “opposition’s” many lines of division, but also because “the Assad government still retains a very significant base of support within Syria—probably about half of the society.”  Thus, “the only way you’re really going to get out of this conflict is through a negotiated settlement based on power sharing between the current government and parts of the opposition.  But the opposition, egged on by its external supporters, refuses to pursue the only way that you could get out of this conflict.”  When the SNC representative on the panel says that the opposition is prepared for dialogue with others about a political transition, just not with the Syrian government, and that a political transition can only start after Assad departs, Flynt underscores, “You can’t ask for a political process with preconditions, much less pre-results.”  ..."

"The Taliban say that Saudi Arabia has acted as an enemy toward us"

"...Others, however, note that the Saudis have been active in behind-the-scenes peace negotiations between members of the Taliban and the Afghan government in the past. But those talks, which took place in recent years, have yielded no breakthroughs. Wahid Muzhda, a political analyst and former Taliban spokesman, is among the skeptics. He says many Taliban feel betrayed by Riyadh after Saudi authorities arrested and jailed a former Taliban representative, Mawlawi Shabir Ahmad. Ahmad was jailed with his four sons in Riyadh in 2001. He was released in 2011. "The Taliban say that Saudi Arabia has acted as an enemy toward us," Muzdha says, suggesting the Saudis have taken the side of the West. ..."

Syria's mercenaries-rebels: 'Hoping the party that brought them the Iraq war might also bring America to Syria'

 'We want some more of that!'

[CSM] "...  With an eye on the US elections, they say they hope the party that brought them the Iraq war might also bring America to Syria.“The Republicans prefer using the military. Like Bush, he entered Iraq and Afghanistan. They use the military in all cases so maybe they will try to intervene here,” .... A number of Syrians like Mr. Abdu say they hope Tuesday’s election in America will bring Mitt Romney into the Oval Office because they say he is more likely to change the US policy in favor an intervention in Syria..."

Nasser on the Muslim Brotherhood

'Rattling Israel's nerves!'

[Fishman-YNet] "... The drone's interception should remind Israel's citizens of what army intelligence has known all along: The other side is constantly looking for ways to infiltrate the country, for weak points, and it is preparing what Nasrallah referred to as a "surprise weapon" – a weapon that will infiltrate deeper into Israeli territory, a weapon that is meant to rattle the State of Israel's nerves...."

Kuwait Opposition: 'King of Jordan is a Zionist agent!'

'... A crisis is brewing between Kuwaiti opposition and Jordanian government in the wake of news that Jordan has sent a military team to assist Kuwait royal repression.  This is the video of Kuwaiti opposition figure, Muslim Al-Barrak, describing the Jordanian king as "agent".'

Israel shows grace as IDF vehicle is hit by "mistaken fire by Syrian rebels"

 'Rebels' loot

"... An IDF jeep was hit by a bullet from Syria near the Syria-Israel border on Monday evening. No one was injured in the incident, but the vehicle was damaged.The jeep in question is used by a commander of the IDF's Golani brigade, an officer with the grade of lieutenant colonel. The officer was driving the vehicle at the time that the bullet hit.
It seems that one stray bullet hit the vehicle. An IDF source said that this was the result of "mistaken fire by Syrian rebels."..."

INSS: Implications of an Israeli aggression: 'One anticipates the outbreak of World War III, while the other envisions containment & restraint'

... and the INSS, (close ties to the IDF leadership) says; 

"...Overall, there are two opposing assessments of the implications of an Israeli attack. One anticipates the outbreak of World War III, while the other envisions containment and restraint, and presumes that in practice, Iran’s capabilities to ignite the Middle East are limited..."

"Netanyahu tried to launch a strike against Iran in 2010, but was rebuffed by the IDF leadership"

[SST] "...This comes at the same time that other Israeli national security insiders are revealing that Bibi tried to launch a preventive strike against Iran in 2010, but was rebuffed by the IDF leadership and others because he did not have the go-ahead from his Security Cabinet or the Knesset.  British independent TV Channel 4 is going to air a broadcast tonight detailing the 2010 attempt to launch a preventive attack, and just how close things came to a hot war. ..."

Saudi King appoints 'America's man' as Minister of Interior

... The Saudi King just appointed Muhammad Bin Nayif  as Minister of Interior.... deposing Ahmad bin Abdul Aziz...

'Despite Abbas & Balfour, we will return to our homes in Palestine'

Despite Abbas and Balfour, we will return to our homes in Palestine

"Turmoil in Sinai is quickly trickling toward Cairo"

... and most importantly, Israel is concerned.

"... The brawls between Egyptian police and armed gangs, apparently members of extreme Islamist groups, reached a peak on Saturday, when three policemen were shot dead by gunmen.
Immediately afterward, the policemen at the El-Arish police station launched a demonstration, blocking roads over what they said was contempt for their safety and that of the area's residents. They were joined by residents of El-Arish and members of the tribes who live in the nearby villages, who blocked the main roads leading to El-Arish. Later, policemen from the Sheikh Zawid police station joined the protest, abandoning their station and forcing the army to man it with soldiers...."

Rumblings: 'Saudi border guards ambushed & killed'

"...RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — Saudi Arabia’s Interior Ministry says a group of 11 al-Qaida fighters has killed two border guards while trying to cross into Yemen before they themselves were captured.The ministry said in a statement that the gunmen ambushed the border guard patrol early Monday and exchanged fire with them ..."

“We were not focused on these guys”

 'No concerns' in Syria

"... “In general, Ansar al-Sharia was viewed as a local extremist group with an eye on gaining political ground (sounds familiar?) in Libya,”  said one U.S. official who is familiar with the intelligence assessment. “Of course, there were concerns that Islamist militias such as Ansar could help more violent extremists gain a foothold.”  One U.S. intelligence contractor working on the investigation into the Benghazi attacks said, “We were not focused on these guys.” Militias like Ansar al-Sharia, this person said, might be analyzed and monitored, but they weren’t the focus of the analysts who were maintaining kill lists and monitoring the broader war against al Qaeda.
Today, the intelligence community has begun to reassess its view of Ansar al-Sharia in Benghazi, in part because the attacks there included not only that group’s members but two other al-Qaeda-affiliated groups: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and the Jamal network.
Unraveling Ansar al-Sharia, however, is one of the harder jobs today for U.S. intelligence analysts. ..."

rumblings of the 'real' Game of Thrones

'Rumblings in the Gulf: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Yemen: The Game of thrones'

Kuwaiti security forces use tear gas at rally

"... Thousands of opposition supporters planned a rally to protest against a new electoral law on Sunday. The country's security forces completely sealed off the original protest site in Kuwait City, so organisers told supporters via Twitter to gather instead at Mishref, about 20km south of the capital.Although most roads leading to the new location were quickly closed off by police, thousands of people still managed to get through and immediately started marching. ..."

Five deadly bombs in the Bahraini capital Manama

(Reuters) - "Five bombs exploded in the heart of the Bahraini capital Manama on Monday, killing two people, ... The blasts, one outside a cinema, could be a sign that radical elements of the opposition are escalating violence. They took place days after the government said it had banned all rallies and opposition gatherings to ensure public safety..."

Gunfire near Erdogan's office

ANKARA (Reuters) - "The sound of gunfire was heard near the Turkish prime minister's office in Ankara on Monday as ministers convened for a cabinet meeting but there were no reports of casualties..."

'Crafted in Foggy Bottom': Two, not one, Syrian 'transitional governments'

(AP) — "Sharp disagreements arose Sunday on the first day of a Syrian opposition conference meant to forge a more cohesive leadership ....
The main opposition group in exile, the Syrian National Council, balked at a U.S.-backed plan that would largely sideline it ..... the SNC, widely seen as dysfunctional and out of touch, ...... Last week, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton was unusually harsh, suggesting the SNC's leadership days are over.
Failure to reach a deal in Doha could further heighten tensions between Syria's political opposition and the international community.......
Abdel-Rahman al-Haj, a spokesman for the group, said the international community's criticism of the SNC is meant to deflect from the world's failure to stop the bloodshed in Syria.
"The international community … did not give us any help, support and weapons," he said. "We just hear talking."
Al-Haj, a 41-year-old Syrian exile in Malaysia, said the SNC is considering the possibility of setting up its own transitional government if it decides to reject Seif's plan.....
However, divisions among political leaders are not the only concern.
Rebel fighters are split into small largely autonomous groups, some led by local figures little known outside Syria. Most nominally belong to the umbrella Free Syrian Army, but their ties to it are often just lip-service. In many hotspots, fighters from a radical Islamic group inspired by the al-Qaida terror network have taken on prominent roles..."

"Weapons originating in Turkey seized by Yemeni authorities"

Members of the government with 'Reform Party' (Eslah/ Muslim Brotherhood) tried hard to snuff the investigation.

"...An investigation has been opened into the discovery of weapons "destined to harm the security and stability" of Yemen, the ministry said, without identifying either the sender or intended recipient of the cargo.The impoverished southern Arabian Peninsula nation is already awash with weapons.
It is prey to attacks in the east and south blamed on Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP ..."

Explosions in Saudi Arabia: After 'truck crashing in overpass' comes 'gas leak explosion in an empty hotel'

Bomb targeting Turkish special forces, kills & wounds many

[Reuters] "...The blast happened when a police special forces armored vehicle passed the entrance to the town of Semdinli, near Turkey's borders with Iraq and Iran, the scene of frequent conflict between Turkish security forces and Kurdish militants..."

Qatar's Emir continued 'successes'!

 

Emir to Haniyeh: 'Here's some money. Go support Abbas!'

"... Abbas made the rare if symbolic concession to Israel on Thursday, saying he had no permanent claim on the town from which he was driven as a child during the 1948 war of the Jewish state's founding.Ismail Haniyeh said on Friday that Abbas' remarks on the right of return for Palestinian refugees, aired on Israel's Channel 2, were "extremely dangerous".
Linah Alsaafin, a Ramallah-based activist, told Al Jazeera that Abbas' statements "prove that he has lost touch with the Palestinian people ... Considering his presidential term is expired since 2009, he really doesn't have the legitimacy to act in the name of the Palestinians and come out with such outlandish statements."
"Abbas has succeeded in uniting the Palestinian people against his words, they are united in disgust and protest,” Alsaafin said...."

Egyptian policemen shot dead in Sinai

Egyptian policemen shot dead in Sinai - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

SNC to Clinton: 'NO, no & NO!'

Via MoonOfAlabama;

"... Follow

The 47th‏@THE_47th

Shouldn't this be breaking news? George Sabra (SNC Exec Cmttee member) on SkyNews right now saying they refuse any alternative to SNC.

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3:05 AM - 3 Nov 12 ·  ..."

“Doha is very confused!”

...confused, again!

[McClatchy's] "...ISTANBUL — The Obama administration’s decision to drop its recognition of the Syrian National Council as the leading Syrian opposition group and propose creating a new umbrella organization surprised and puzzled close U.S. allies, diplomats said Friday.The U.S. government gave no advance notice of its intention to renounce the council as the lead umbrella group, diplomats of three countries said. They said their governments learned about the initiative from news accounts.
Diplomats criticized Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for using what they called inappropriate language in describing the council as made up of people who haven’t been in Syria for decades; many of its members, the diplomats said, left the country only after the uprising against President Bashar Assad began 19 months ago.
“We have recommended names and organizations that we believe should be included in any leadership structure,” Clinton said Wednesday in announcing the administration’s break with the council, a move that, unusually, was made public in a statement to reporters who were traveling with her, after a meeting with the president of Croatia. “We’ve made it clear that the SNC can no longer be viewed as the visible leader of the opposition.”
“We were a bit surprised, especially when they said they’d suggested the names for the new body,” one Western diplomat said. “Syrians will say the Americans are imposing the names. And I am not sure the Americans would propose the right people.”
He called it “a bit too harsh” for Washington “to throw away” the executive committee and the whole 310-member general assembly of the Syrian National Council. “We know they were not representing the entire opposition, but you can’t say they did nothing. They still have a role to play,” he said.
There was no word from Britain on its position, but as America’s closest ally, the government of Prime Minister David Cameron was expected to support the new effort.
Clinton’s intervention is sure to have repercussions for Arab League-sponsored meetings that start Sunday in Qatar, at which the Syrian National Council planned to elect new leadership and reorganize its structure.
“Doha is very confused,” the diplomat said.
A diplomat from a second Western country said that how the talks would reach a conclusion now was “a bit blurry.”
All three diplomats spoke only on the condition that they and their countries not be identified, to avoid harming relations with the United States.
There is now visible disarray among key U.S. allies on how to proceed...............
Turkey has made no public statements on the Doha meetings.
Besides opening a fissure between Washington and some of the 100-plus countries in the Friends of the Syrian People, a U.S.-backed forum calling for the downfall of the Assad regime, the change in U.S. policy also opened the U.S. to criticism from Russia..."

New Administration: Syria: 'no prospect for a heavy footprint US military intervention there, but the pace of US activity will accelerate'

'In the final weekend before the presidential and other elections, ..... The losing party will have difficulty accepting the winning party’s legitimacy, let alone be ready to work with it constructively. In terms of American governance, therefore, the election will bring little clarity. The best that can be hoped for in terms of the “fiscal cliff” is that the plunge over it – scheduled at present for January 2^nd, 2013, will be postponed for up to six month. This is an unpromising background for progress on foreign policy. Nonetheless, there are three outstanding issues which will present themselves as early priorities: 1) Syria: now that Secretary of State Clinton has announced that the US will seek a fundamental restructuring of the Syrian opposition in meetings in Doha next week, the time is more pressing for a more active US engagement in this issue. We still see no prospect for a heavy footprint US military intervention there, but the pace of US activity will accelerate. 2) Iran: in meetings with EU High Representative Catherine Ashton last week, Clinton explained that, while the run-up to a US election was an inappropriate time for action on this issue, the next Administration will move to grasp it more actively. Some debate is taking place behind closes doors about whether to harden US demands to the extent of requiring Iran to abandon its nuclear program totally before obtaining sanctions relief. We doubt that so uncompromising a policy will emerge, but it does signal that US attitudes are hardening. We anticipate that the spring and summer of 2013 will see tensions mount.....'

"If Clinton & Co. think they are going to find Syrian allies to steer in a pro-US direction, they are going to be disappointed!"

[Guardian] "... But what happened at Saraqeb is about more than the prevalence of jihadis in Syria's civil war. The "Free Syrian Army" is a nice concept. In practice, however, the fighters against Assad are a loosely affiliated patchwork of militias, with no unified command.The behavior of these irregular units varies widely, as do their sources of funding. Some groups have received a trickle of communications and non-lethal aid from the likes of the US. Others have received weapons from states like Qatar or right private donors in fellow Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia.
Reliance on Syrian exiles
The influence of the exiled Syrian National Council – which Secretary Clinton declared a failure Wednesday when she announced that the US was withdrawing support – over fighters on the ground is near zero.
So in that sense, the Obama administration is right to look to spend its money and political influence elsewhere. But if Clinton or anyone else in the government thinks they are going to find Syrian allies to steer it in a pro-US direction, they are going to be disappointed.
On Wednesday, Clinton dismissed the utility of working with Syrian exiles on shaping events in Syria. “There has to be a representation of those who are on the front lines fighting and dying today to obtain their freedom," she said.
Yes, certainly, those are the people who will shape a post-Assad Syria. And the failure of the US reliance on exiles in Iraq, such as Ahmad Chalabi, to secure US interests, hardly needs repeating.
Look at Libya
But you have only to look to Libya to understand how difficult it is to exert influence after a triumphant rebellion in states where politics has merely been another word for patronage for decades, where the lust for revenge is strong, and where the rebellion itself is backed with Islamist militants who not very long ago were fighting US forces in places like Iraq and Afghanistan...

 Next week, Clinton heads to Qatar for a discussion on how regional powers will work to reshape the "leadership structure" (in her words) of the uprising. She'll be bearing a list of names of Syrians the US wants promoted to the senior ranks.
The choice of Qatar is an interesting one, given that monarchy's steadfast support for Islamist militias first in Libya and now in Syria. These are not the type of groups the US wants to see strengthened in either place. Qatar, by its actions, clearly disagrees, and has been far more aggressive and responsive in funneling support to them. Qatar does not share the US alarm at the jihadi factions fighting against Assad..."

Flooding Syria With Foreign Arms

Flooding Syria With Foreign Arms » Counterpunch: Tells the Facts, Names the Names

Salafis in Syria: "'They will demand that we return to the seventh century'"

[Guardian] " In early summer, Abu Ismael, a six-year veteran of al-Qaida, left the insurgency still blazing in his homeland of Iraq and travelled to what he believes is the start of the apocalypse....
"It was easy," he said, in the sitting room of a house in the Syrian city of Aleppo. "The money was no problem, neither was the weapon, or the motivation. This will be a fight against the great enemy."....
"When the regime falls, all those who fought against the Muslims will be my enemy, especially the Shias," he said, reiterating a view held by some Sunni extremists that Shia are their biggest foes....
"We want just what they got in Tunis and Egypt," said Mahmoud Razak, a shop-keeper in the outer suburbs. "Freedom and the chance to progress in life. But we thought it would take 19 days like it took [in Egypt]. It's now 19 months. We didn't know it would be this difficult."
To those now hosting Abu Ismael, the Iraqi jihadi embodies one of the major problems. Though for the most part conservative and pious, the men of this part of Aleppo refuse to see the crisis now consuming Syria in existential terms. To them, this is still a fight for self-determination, not the forum for an apocalyptic showdown with a preordained foe.
"What is this global jihad that he talks about?" asked a town elder, Abu Abdullah, after the Iraqi had left to prepare for his wedding. "We will be used as toys by them, just as the Sunni communities were in Iraq. When they have had their way with us they will demand that we return to the seventh century under the blade of a sword."
Bashar al-Assad has insisted from the start that Syria was facing attack by "armed terrorist gangs", not a popular uprising – though there is ample evidence of the army firing on mostly unarmed demonstrators. But it has become clear that extremist Salafi or jihadi groups, some linked to al-Qaida, are now a significant element of the armed opposition.
Alongside fighters from al-Qaida in Iraq or Fatah al-Islam from Lebanon is the mysterious Jabhat al-Nusra, which has claimed responsibility for suicide bombings in Damascus and Aleppo. It is sympathetic to al-Qaida. Others hail from Jordan, Libya and Algeria.
The overwhelming majority of jihadis are Syrian, with the number of foreigners ranging from 1,200 to 1,500 members..."

let's try this ...

[Karon- TIME] "...It’s not clear to what extent the idea of a new rebel leadership established under U.S. tutelage would take hold, given the multiple constituencies that would challenge the idea, ranging from jihadist fighting groups to at least some of the unarmed secular opposition groups on the ground in Syria. And to the extent that it displaces the Syrian National Council, that group — which has been dominated by the exiled Syrian chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood, and continues to enjoy support from Turkey and Qatar – is also likely to push back. “There needs to be an opposition leadership structure that is dedicated to representing and protecting all Syrians,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said while traveling in the Balkans. “And we also need an opposition that will be on record strongly resisting the efforts by extremists to hijack the Syrian revolution.”..."

'Another crawler ... Same rock'

"... Earlier this year, WikiLeaks, working with more than twenty media partners including Al-Akhbar, released some of Stratfor’s private emails in a project dubbed the “Global Intelligence Files.” In relation to Lebanon and the rest of the Middle East, the emails instantaneously showed that Stratfor placed singular importance on one source, codenamed ME1.
Prior to connecting the dots and uncovering ME1’s identity, Al-Akhbarblogged about him in a March 26 post entitled “Our Man in Beirut,” with evidence gleaned from the “GI Files”:

For the Levant, Senior Analyst for the Middle East and South Asia (MESA), Reva Bhalla, gains the bulk of her human insights from a single main source. Codenamed ME1, the identity of this valuable source is protected even in Stratfor’s own internal source listings (All the files listing the informants names and contact information were conveniently entitled “source lists.”) We don’t yet know who ME1 is, but Reva describes her relationship with him as follows:

“I have been working with ME1 for more than 4 years now. He needs ego stroking and is very defensive, but very well connected. I have caught several instances though where what he has reported is in the OS verbatim. When you inquire about it, he shows classic defensive tactics. He has great sources, but his source information can be difficult to evaluate b/c I can't tell when he might be fabricating the information to justify his pay. Known since 2003. Tempermental [sic]. Sometimes his immediate reaction is suspect. Often good info but hard to tell when it is and isn't. Emphasized quantity over quality.”

Previous readings by Al-Akhbar reported that ME1 was an active source at least as far back as 2006. The Stratfor emails also indicated that he was a major link, connecting the private intelligence firm to other sources, which allegedly included military, academic, diplomatic and media figures in Lebanon and elsewhere.
Moreover, ME1’s importance to Stratfor was made evident by the fact that he received a significant pay raise last October, which brought his salary up from $3,000 to $6,000 per month, making him one of the highest paid contractors for the so-called “Shadow CIA.”Upon deeper examinations of the GI Files, ME1’s identity was uncovered: Hilal Khashan. Khashan is the author of a number of written works, notably a book titled “Inside the Lebanese Confessional Mind” – described by the notorious neocon Daniel Pipes as “a stunningly original study on the political attitudes of Lebanese.” (Khashan is also a fellow and regular contributor to Pipes' Middle East Quarterly.)
Khashan first appears within the Stratfor files in November 2004. Corresponding with Anthony Sullivan, a recruiter for the firm, Khashan wrote about his “great interest” in Stratfor founder George Friedman’s article scrutinizing the CIA, and added, “I am writing this note to express to you my interest in cooperating in this worthwhile effort.” (doc-id 5488035)
A month later, Khashan sent his CV to Sullivan, who in turn passed it on to other senior employees within Stratfor’s Special Operations department. (doc-id 5315732)
While Director of Special Operations Bob Rushing expressed concern over the new recruit’s ability to gain access as an academic, Sullivan assured him: “Khashan has knowledge of Muslim movements and connections with Muslim personalities in Lebanon and elsewhere [in] the Levant.” That seemed to put to rest any doubts over Khashan’s merits as a provider of “human intelligence.” (doc-id 5338445)
The use of the codename ME1 appears to have begun in 2006. Most of these early reports by ME1 concentrated on Lebanon, with a particular focus on Hezbollah.......  ME1’s analyses and predictions were mostly generic and occasionally grossly off-the-mark. For example, in response to a question sent by Bhalla on 4 November 2006 regarding Hezbollah’s objectives during the early stages of negotiations with Israel over the release of two captured Israeli soldiers, ME1 predicted: “The negotiations will drag on for a considerable period of time and I am certain that the Israeli soldier held in Gaza will be released first.” (doc-id 5278972)
Hezbollah and Israel agreed to a prisoner swap by 2008, while Hamas and Israel’s prisoner swap occurred only last year. Despite his shortcomings, the relationship between ME1 and Stratfor continued to grow.
With time, ME1’s reports expanded to include insights on Syrian military mobilizations, and political developments within Lebanon, Palestine and Iran. (doc-id 62654, doc-id 62734, doc-id 63303, doc-id 63417, doc-id 63057)....
According to the Stratfor cache, "ME1" used some of his students as sub-sources. By 2011, ME1’s claimed sources included a number of Arab diplomats, the Egyptian ambassador in Lebanon, a Lebanese military general, the head of Lebanon’s internal security forces, an international law expert involved in the United Nations Special Tribunal in Lebanon, and more. (doc-id 5430752, doc-id 103613, doc-id 103501, doc-id 103543, doc-id 67951, doc-id 220792, doc-id 3652040, doc-id 282856, doc-id 75432,doc-id 180039, doc-id 944505)
ME1’s identity appeared to be a closely guarded secret, known only to a few within Stratfor.... (Continue, here)"

Russia: "Syrian Army Fully Capable of Fighting Insurgents"

"... Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov stressed that the Syrian army could completely counter militant groups.During an interview with reporters Thursday, he said "there is exaggeration when it is said the Syrian army has been degenerated and could not go to war."
"The analysts were saying half a year ago that the Syrian government forces could not confront the militants, but subsequent developments confirmed that they are wrong," he added.
Serdyukov also noted that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad "will not leave because he realizes that his departure means suicide, so he will stand till the end."
On Russia’s readiness to send peacekeepers to Syria, the Defense Minister said "this issue refers to the President, and it is not submitted for discussion now."..."

Six months ago, the view from Washington was similar,

"... "When you compare it to neighboring states such as Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt, it is one of the largest forces," said Aram Nerguizian, a Syria expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It does have pockets of excellence."  
Nerguizian points out "You have units like the Republican Guard and units that Maher al-Assad [President Assad's brother] controls that are markedly more effective, and there are essentially elite units and very loyal to Assad, capable in urban fighting."..." 

"Make the United States & its allies & friends less secure"

[National Interest] "...Proponents of such a deal should make clear to the American public that a military strike might not do the job and that it will be difficult to preventing a post-attack Iran from further destabilizing the Middle East (particularly Syria, Iraq, Turkey and Jordan). They should also make the case that instability in these countries could make the United States and its allies and friends less secure. And they should have to demand that hawks provide a detailed, rather than slogan-filled, account of their alternative course of action and its downsides. ..."

Car bomb outside Turkish military barracks

(Reuters) - A car exploded outside a military barracks in the Turkish port city of Iskenderun on Thursday injuring several people... 

"Antakya’s streets are empty!"

'A Bazaar in Southeastern Turkey, care of Recep Erdogan'

[Milliyet] "...Mehmet Acikgoz, who has owned a clothing shop for 48 years, says: “There can't be more unemployment than this.”

He adds: “It’s not just the foreigners; even Turks are not shopping anymore. Everyone is worried when we see deployments of tanks around us. We used to have customers coming from Jordan and Lebanon. They also stopped coming. Our trade has dropped by around 70%. We have only one or two customers per day. There used to be shuttles to Aleppo every 15 minutes. The Syrians used to shop to amounts of 1,000-1,500 Turkish Lira [$557-$836]. Sometimes a single person would spend our weekly revenue.”.."

"The US is going to gradually adjust itself to a nuclear-capable Iran!"

"... No matter who wins, I suspect we'll see a new push for some sort of diplomatic deal with Iran. It's been reported (and denied) that Obama intends to do this after the election, and I wouldn't be surprised if a Romney administration made at least a gesture in this direction. But my guess that the United States is going to gradually adjust itself to a nuclear-capable (but not nuclear armed) Iran.Here's why. I don't think Iran will cross any overt "red lines" in the next four years, meaning that it isn't going to try to fabricate or test a nuclear weapon or start enriching uranium to 90%. They won't do this because that is the one step that might trigger a U.S. attack. Absent such a move by Iran, I don't think either Israel or the United States will conduct a preventive strike. Israel doesn't have the capability to conduct a strategically meaningful attack, and most of the U.S. national security establishment thinks an attack would be foolish....
So the next president will be facing an Iran that is nuclear capable (meaning it has the theoretical capacity to build a bomb if it chooses to do so). Even if we don't reach a formal diplomatic deal (i.e., one that permitted Iran to enrich uranium to low levels and gradually reduced economic sanctions), he'll probably deal with it exactly the same way we dealt with other nuclear powers: i.e., via containment and deterrence. Note: this step will also mean negotiating security arrangements with key U.S. allies in a period where regional politics are going to be quite volatile (see #2 above). In short, plenty for the next president to do on this issue, too...."

"Do we quietly encourage ethnic cleansing?"

(Walt in FP) "... The next president may also have to face up to the fact that there isn't going to be a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians, and begin to think seriously about what an alternative U.S. policy should be. Obama has already learned that trying to pursue the 2SS is "just really hard," and Romney famously told a group of fat cat GOP donors that he didn't think that goal was achievable. I've always seen the 2SS as the best outcome given where we were, but it is no longer realistic to expect it to happen. The Israeli right has no interest in it, the Palestinians are too weak and divided to put meaningful pressure on them, and the United States is too compromised by the Israel lobby to be an effective mediator. The "two-state solution" has become a fig leaf for politicians to hide behind, while realities on the ground make it less and less likely by the day.
But sooner or later, it will be obvious to everyone that it simply isn't going to happen. As I've argued before, that epiphany raises all sorts of awkward questions:  In particular, what outcome should a liberal democracy like the United States favor if "two states for two peoples" is impossible? Do we abandon our commitment to "one person, one vote" and endorse permanent apartheid? Do we abandon our deep commitment to a Jewish state and support a one-state democracy for all the inhabitants of Israel/Palestine? Or do we quietly encourage ethnic cleansing? 
No matter who the next president is, I'm sure they will try to avoid those awkward questions for as long as they can. But they may not be able to do so forever without looking like they are living in fantasyland...."

Weak State Department Response to Bahrain Ban on Protests Shows Oil Higher Priority Than Lives

Subtext: The US must put up with Bahrain in order to assure the continued flow of oil from the Middle East
Weak State Department Response to Bahrain Ban on Protests Shows Oil Higher Priority Than Lives

Erdogan: "Turkey has no authority or right to declare a buffer zone or a no-fly zone in Syria!"

[Bloomberg] "... Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country was unable to unilaterally impose buffer zones on its border with Syria and relied on the United Nations to make such decisions.Responding to questions in Berlin during a joint news conference with Chancellor Angela Merkel today, the premier said Turkey “has no authority or right to declare” a buffer zone or a no-fly zone to protect civilians inside Syria. “It is an issue which the UN Security Council can decide on,” he said..."

Iraq court hands Al Hashimi 2nd death sentence

"... BAGHDAD (AP) — An Iraqi court has convicted the country’s Sunni vice president on charges of instigating bodyguards to assassinate a senior government official and sentenced him to death.Thursday’s verdict was the second death sentence for Tariq al-Hashemi in less than two months, both delivered in absentia since he is in exile in Turkey...."