Wednesday, July 8, 2009

"...He's joined at the hip to the Israel lobby. This explains the staying power..."

Philip Weiss in Mondoweiss, here

"Today The Times publishes a slightly-negative review of Dennis Ross and David Makovsky's new book on the unending peace process in which reviewer Howard French employs an indirect style that leaves the impression that he wanted to denounce the authors but was afraid to come out and say so.

[The book's] greatest intellectual energy, however, is expended attacking the so-called realists, who believe, the authors say, that the United States has been “too close to Israel,” and for whom, in what sounds like another overreach, “it is largely inconceivable that Israel could have a case or that the Arabs and Palestinians might not be living up to their side of the bargain.”

The authors go on to denounce “the realist concept of external blueprints, of pressuring Israelis while offering inducements to the Palestinians,” as “strangely divorced from reality.”

The authors rely excessively for foils on John J. Mearsheimer, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, and Stephen M. Walt, a political scientist at Harvard, who wrote “The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy” (2007) and who are cited frequently. But with the warnings in “Myths, Illusions, and Peace” about pressuring Israel, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the Obama administration’s initial moves in the Middle East would also fall under the authors’ realist banner.

For many readers another issue that will arise is one of balance. Mr. Ross has led a distinguished career that is all the more remarkable for his staying power in Washington during both Democratic and Republican administrations — as a high-level Middle Eastern troubleshooter, envoy and policymaker. (He was recently transferred to the National Security Council.) At virtually no point in this book, however, are Israeli actions depicted as problematic or troublesome.

Translation: He's joined at the hip to the Israel lobby. This explains the staying power.

The closest the authors come to this is a passage describing mounting Palestinian disbelief in the peace process, in which they write, “They saw Israeli obligations under Oslo flouted — prisoners not released, withdrawals not taking place as scheduled, and the status of the territory constantly being changed to Israeli advantage, in effect prejudging the negotiations and their purpose.”

Elsewhere, speaking of an increase in the Israeli settler population on the West Bank from about 5,000 around the time of the Camp David accords in 1977 to over 300,000 now, the authors employ a counterfactual, saying “things could have been different if the Arabs had chosen a more pragmatic course.”

Counterfactuals and relying on foils and the expense of intellectual energy and for many readers and falling under banners... Can you speak English? Or has the lobby got your tongue? "

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

American Pressure Reduced?

The PULSE, here

Since Defense Minister Ehud Barak's meeting with George Mitchell last week, media sources have continued to argue over whether tension between the US and Israel has diminished and whether the US and Israel are making progress towards a compromise on the settlement issue.

Shimon Shiffer, Orly Azulai, Itamar Eichner and Smadar Peri in Yedioth Ahronoth report:

The prime minister [Binyamin Netanyahu] has recently begun to speak skeptically about the American administration's chances of extracting from the Arab states good will gestures towards Israel, such as permission to use their airspace. He suspects that the Americans' plans are not viable and that they only want to "squabble" with him.

However, it would seem that the US administration is sticking firmly to its established plan...

One official who is close to the talks between Israel and special envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell said that the United States would not accept Israel's demand that recognition of Israel as a Jewish state be a precondition for negotiations. Next week Netanyahu is scheduled to meet with Mitchell, who is expected to inform Netanyahu that the United States is going to be able to secure the consent of various Arab states to make advances towards normalization with Israel in the event that Israel first freezes settlement activity. ..

The defense minister promised that Israel would not allow any construction in the settlements that was not truly for natural growth purposes as long as he was defense minister, but Mitchell made it clear that the US administration wanted a comprehensive clamp on all construction in the settlements. ..

Next week Mitchell is slated to arrive for meetings in Israel and the Palestinian Authority. He will meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu and PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. Mitchell will present Netanyahu with the principles of the comprehensive peace initiative that the United States is planning. The goal is to hold talks between Israel and Syria and Israel and Lebanon in tandem with the resumption of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

Matti Tuchfeld, Lilach Shoval and Yuri Yalon in Israel Hayom write:

Israeli officials are pleased with the results of the meeting that was held between Defense Minister Ehud Barak and US special envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell.

"There's been a discernibly significant reduction in American pressure on Israel," said last night a political source. A joint statement that was issued by Barak and Mitchell noted that the parties reiterated their commitment to regional peace between Israel and the Palestinians, Syria and Lebanon.

One high-ranking political official said he believed that ultimately the two sides would reach a compromise that would involve an Israeli commitment not to expand the settlements temporarily, but would complete construction processes in places where plans already existed..."

"Settling Sons"

M Knight in JANE's, here

The Sons of Iraq are not yet being systematically targeted by the government, but they are growing fearful of such intimidation once U.S. forces withdraw from the country. Demobilization and reemployment of the Sons of Iraq is likely to be fairly rapid, with fighters receiving payment until they are found alternative employment. Although no near-term deterioration of security is likely to be caused by the Sons of Iraq, a subset of these fighters is considering long-term resistance to the Shiite-led federal government after the United States leaves Iraq.
(read the Pdf. Report in full, Jane's, here)

This press release was sent on behalf of the Saudi Embassy by Qorvis Communications to congressional hands last night:

Below please find a statement issued by the Royal Embassy of Saudi Arabia.

CONTACT:
Royal Embassy of Saudi Arabia, Washington, DC

SAUDI ARABIA DENIES REPORTS REGARDING ISRAELI USE OF ITS
AIRSPACE

WASHINGTON, [July 6, 2009] - The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia today issued the following statement in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia:

"The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia totally and categorically denies
accounts published by a British newspaper regarding contacts with Israel or permission to use Saudi airspace for any hostile activities. The Kingdom is greatly puzzled by the publication of this false information, which directly contradicts the established, firm and clear policies of the Saudi government regarding relations with the occupying government of Israel and the Kingdom's prohibition against the use of its territories or airspace for aggression against another nation."

حسن نصر الله زار دمشق بعيداً عن الإعلام والإعلان

في الجانب الأول، كانت جلسة المراجعة الأبرز قد جرت قبل مدة قصيرة، وجمعت الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد والأمين . العام لحزب الله السيد حسن نصر الله الذي زار دمشق بعيداً عن الإعلام والإعلان. وجرى خلال الاجتماع عرض تفاصيل كثيرة تخصّ ملف الانتخابات، لناحية ما الذي كان في مقدور قوى المعارضة القيام به ولم تفعله، وما الذي كان في مقدور سوريا القيام به ولم تفعله، ولناحية آلية العمل في المرحلة المقبلة.
ويبدو أن النقاش استخلص نتائج، من بينها أن قوى المعارضة لم تكن لديها متابعة تفصيلية لما يجري على الأرض، وأن مستوى التنسيق في ما بينها لم يكن على مستوى الحدث، وأن الخلافات التي قامت لناحية تقدير قوة الخصم أو تحديد الخطوات الواجب اتخاذها سبّبت تراجع الحوافز الضرورية لخوض معركة بكل المقاييس، كذلك جرى انتقاد بعض التركيبات والتحالفات التي يبدو أنها سببت هي الأخرى خسارة مواقع مهمة.

Israel's "biggest nightmare" is that one day the US "‘would say 'OK guys, take care of it,'"

Laura Rosen in the CABLE, here

"As White House and Office of the Vice President aides formed a united front against widespread media speculation about a change in policy signaled by Vice President Joseph Biden's statement on a Sunday news show that Israel is a "sovereign nation" that could "determine for itself" how to deal with threats from Iran, analysts said that Israel may be wary of any such green light in any case.

In e-mails and phone calls today, administration officials insisted that Biden's comments were neither a signal of any change in policy, nor any sort of freelancing. Asked if Biden's remarks might have been part of an intentional messaging campaign to step up pressure on Iran to negotiate over its nuclear program, officials gave an emphatic "no." But for all that, the remarks were widely seen both in Washington and abroad as a message intended less for Jerusalem than for Tehran.

Israel's "biggest nightmare" is that one day the U.S. government "‘would call it and say 'OK guys, take care of it,'" said Tel Aviv University Iran expert David Menashri in a call Monday arranged by the Israeli Policy Forum, a U.S. nonprofit organization that supports a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict...

"Some in the [Israeli] media are portraying [Biden's comments] as a 180-degree switch and as an indication that the administration is beginning to realize that 'engagement' may not work," said former Israeli Consul General to the United Nations Alon Pinkas. "That it is absolutely NOT a change, and if anything, it should be interpreted as a bad sign rather than a positive encouragement."

Biden's message "is the absolute worst-case scenario from Israel's policy-planning perspective," Pinkas elaborated. "'We will not prevent' means the U.S. will neither support nor encourage [Israeli attacks on Iran] or in other words, 'Do what you think is appropriate, but bear the consequences.'"

Although Israeli officials have expressed unending skepticism about the Obama administration's intentions to try to engage with Iran, and are often seen as chafing against Washington, Israel has conducted an intensive campaign over the past several years to make Iran's nuclear program an international rather than just an Israeli problem.

The reason, explains Georgetown University's Daniel Byman, is that Israel doesn't want to take on Iran by itself. "Militarily, this is a difficult operation," Byman said Monday, ..... It also requires superb intelligence that may be lacking."

"There was no intention to change the position, and nothing the vice president said in any way indicates a change in U.S. position," said a White House official of Biden's remarks Sunday. "What he said and what [chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael] Mullen said taken together reflect our position: Israel is a sovereign nation, Israel is an ally and Israel has a right to defend itself and other countries cannot dictate how it defends itself. That being said, it would not be helpful if Israel were to act against Iran." Any interpretation that Biden's remarks signaled a change in U.S. policy is "spin," he added.

Biden did, however, strike a different tone when answering a similar question back on April 7. Asked if he were concerned that Netanyahu might strike Iranian nuclear facilities, Biden told CNN: "I don't believe Prime Minister Netanyahu would do that. I think he would be ill advised to do that." How to account for the seeming discrepancy? "Any tonal difference is not intentional at all," the White House official said.

Did Biden coordinate with the White House to pressure Iran to respond to the still-outstanding offer of talks with Washington? Again, the answer from the White House was no.

Washington foreign-policy hands, however, were skeptical that the message was not quite deliberate.

"It's crazy to think the principal audience of this comment was in Jerusalem and not in Tehran," said Jon Alterman, director of Middle East Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "The policy discussion [in Washington] is about changing Iranian behavior, not about fine-tuning Israeli actions that will change Iranian behavior. The focus is on Tehran. Now does this have an effect on Israel: sure. But I think the principal goal (if [Biden's statement] was intentional) is to diminish the comfort level that people in the Iranian leadership may have that their actions don't have consequences."

Deliberate or not, Biden's comments could increase the uncertainty in Tehran about U.S. intentions. "When the Iranians are confident the U.S. is going to sit on the Israelis, that creates one set of plans," Alterman continued. "And when they can't be sure of that," that creates another.

"There may be something to the effect that the White House planned Biden's comments on Iran yesterday, to keep the Iranians off balance and honest," one Hill foreign-policy aide said Monday. "What I found interesting was the juxtaposition of Biden's comments with those of Admiral Mullen, who continue to take the cautious perspective of the U.S. military that any preemptive strike would be destabilizing and not helpful to the cause of U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan." Asked about Biden's comments during his own appearance on CBS's Face the Nation, Admiral Mullen cautioned that "any strike on Iran ... could be very destabilizing."

Monday, July 6, 2009

"Perhaps we'll let the Israelis do it".

Greg Djerejian in the Belgravia Dispatch, here

".... Permit me a brief personal vignette. On a flight a year or so back, I bumped into a former Cabinet member from a previous Administration (he will remain nameless, and I won't even mention his exact post or what Administration he served, suffice it to say a prominent man quite well known still). Discussing Iran briefly, he looked at me with his shrewd eyes and said (relying on memory and so probably slighly paraphrasing): "Perhaps we'll let the Israelis do it". The comment was revealing I thought for a couple reasons: 1) the notion that somehow we would 'authorize' the Israelis, as if they were our proxy to so delegate out the mission; and 2) perhaps less surprising, the fact he thought an extensive bombing campaign of Iran not a bad idea, essentially apparently just a dusting off of the Osirak precedent, I thought without sufficiently appreciating that this operation would be materially more challenging several times over, for many reasons, to include two hot wars on both sides of Iran with hundreds of thousands of American soldiers in the neighborhood.

This little anecdote leads me to a further thought, I think Biden was essentially just trying to refute "1" above, e.g. the sense that it's up to us, thus stressing Israel is a sovereign state that makes up her own mind about such things, so that perhaps he was purposefully distancing the U.S. some from a possible Israeli action, whether in scripted or unscripted manner I'm not sure (I'd probably guess the latter). Of course, how the region and world interpret his comments could be as more of a flashing greenish light, even if that wasn't the intent. Of course too, no one in the region would believe--even were it true (which would be highly unlikely)--that an Israeli action didn't enjoy tacit American support/approval, a variable that we should keep uppermost in our minds (among others) when dealing with the Israelis on this issue/dossier going forward..."

Iraqi Official: "Saudi Arabia is Behind Terrorist Attacks in Iraq"

MEMRI (oddly) here

"...The most forceful accusation against Saudi Arabia came from Hadi Al-Ameri, chairman of Iraq's parliamentary Security and Defense Committee, who accused Saudi Arabia of heading a group of countries in the region that opposed the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq's cities. Al-Almeri said that Saudi Arabia was responsible for the recent bombings in Iraq, and must take a stand against them. He added that the bombings had been financed from outside the country, and that the perpetrators were members of Al-Qaeda and the Iraqi Ba'th Party.

In the article mentioned above, Dr. 'Abd Al-Khaliq Hussein accused Saudi Arabia of promoting terrorism in Iraq: "Reliable reports have proven that 50% of all terrorists sent to Iraq, as well as most of those who carry out suicide attacks there, are from Saudi Arabia. As is well known, the Saudi regime is a police regime, [so that] no Saudi terrorist can enter Iraq without the authorization and blessing of the Saudi government."

The Aswat Al-Iraq website also held Saudi Arabia responsible for suicide terrorist attacks carried out in Iraq in years past: "According to reports published following violent operations [in Iraq], most of those Al-Qaeda [members] who carried out suicide attacks [there] are Saudis who crossed into Iraq from neighboring countries, with the aim of carrying out their missions in Iraqi cities. Likewise, Saudi clerics have issued fatwas permitting terrorist attacks in Iraq..."

Bush's Library (Oxymoron): "most treasured item: Saddam Hussein’s pistol”

Think Progress, here

"...Mark Langdale, the president of the George W. Bush Foundation, said the library would use items to highlight 25 of Mr. Bush’s presidential decisions. “The gun is an interesting artifact, and it tells you that the United States captured Saddam Hussein and disarmed him literally,” Mr. Langdale said. “How we fit that into the decision to go to war, we haven’t gotten to that point yet.”

so, ... is Netanyahu succeeding, in persuading the Americans?...

In the PULSE, here

"Vice President Biden's recent comments reaffirmed Israel's sovereignty in assessing national security threats as well as reflected the dwindling patience of the US in engaging Iran in dialogue.

Boaz Bismuth and Matti Tuchfeld in Israel Hayom:

Has US Vice President Joe Biden given Israel a green light to attack Iran? In an unusual statement, the US vice president said yesterday in an interview to ABC with respect to an Israeli strike against Iran that the US could not dictate to a sovereign nation what it could or could not do.

Officials in Jerusalem were not surprised by Biden's statements.

"There are secret understandings between Israel and the Obama administration as to the options that Israel has regarding Iran," said a political source in Jerusalem to Israel Hayom.

Sources in the Prime Minister's Bureau said yesterday that "the fact that Biden is talking about Israel's right to attack Iran, and at the same time fewer statements are being made on settlements, shows that Netanyahu is succeeding, slowly and determinedly, in persuading the Americans of the justice of his government's policy."....."

What's with Biden?

Lang in SST, here
"Is Biden warning the Iranians that US patience is coming to an end? That is the only way his statements make sense to me.
Only the truly egregious and ignorant think that an Israeli/Iranian air war would not involve the United States. The presence of US forces in the countries adjoining Iran ensures that such a war would affect the US profoundly. That being the case, it follows that Israel, as a junior partner of the US and recipient of a mountain of American money and material CAN NOT be given a free hand to start such a war without US consent.
The ridiculous Donny Deutsch fantasized today on "Morning Joe" (MSNBC) that Israel finishes it own wars... "Just turn them loose!" he raved. Another ignorant fool heard from.
Without large scale US operational and logistical assistance Israel can put a hundred planes over Natanz once, maybe twice in smaller numbers. It's a long way out there. Is the US going to give the Israelis overflight clearance for Iraq? What would our "good buddy" Maliki say about that? In Biden's words, Iraq is also a "sovereign country." What about Search Air Rescue support for aircraft that experience mechanical failure or battle damage? The US will let them recover on Iraqi air bases?

Either Joe Biden was a messenger or they need to find a big enough gag for him"

Saudi Arabia appoints new ambassador to Syria

AP, here
"A Saudi diplomat said Monday that the kingdom has appointed a new ambassador to Syria, the strongest sign yet of the solidifying reconciliation between the two rival Arab nations. ....
An official at the Syrian Foreign Ministry said Syria has approved the appointment of a Saudi ambassador, identifying the diplomat as Abdullah al-Eifan. The diplomat at the Saudi Embassy in Damascus said he would assume the post soon.
Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the appointment was not yet official, and gave no further details.
Al-Eifan's appointment is a strong indication that a much talked about summit meeting between the Saudi king and the Syrian president would be held in Damascus in the coming days or weeks.
Observers have suggested a summit in Damascus was unlikely before the king appoints his envoy to Syria. ..."

US sends Dodge Chargers to Lebanon ...

WT, here

"....each car includes a sophisticated police package with advanced transmission, brakes, lights and sirens....
The new vehicles would be used to help patrol the Palestinian refugee camp of Naher Barid, the base of an Al Qaida revolt in 2007. ISF played a minor role in the counter-insurgency operation in Naher Barid and refused to respond to the Hizbullah assault on offices and political parties linked to then-Prime Minister Fuad Siniora in May 2008. ..."

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Biden: "US will not stand in Israel's way if Israel believes military action is necessary against Iran...."


WAPO, here

"Vice President Joe Biden says the U.S. will not stand in Israel's way if Israel believes military action is needed to eliminate Iran's nuclear threat.

Biden says the U.S. "cannot dictate to another sovereign nation what they can and cannot do."

Israel considers Iran its most dangerous adversary and is wary of hard-line Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who just won a disputed re-election. He repeatedly has called for Israel to be wiped off the map.

Israel and the U.S. accuse Iran of seeking to develop weapons under the cover of a nuclear power program. Iran denies that.

Biden told ABC's "This Week" that Israel can determine for itself "what's in their interest and what they decide to do relative to Iran and anyone else."

Mossad’s director holds secret talks with Saudi officials to discuss "flying over the kingdom"?...

In the London Times, here

"...The reports were denied by Saudi officials.

“The Saudis have tacitly agreed to the Israeli air force flying through their airspace on a mission which is supposed to be in the common interests of both Israel and Saudi Arabia,” a diplomatic source said last week..."

... and, despite decline in immigration, Israel continues to 'import settlers'....


'The Palestinians ...'

Housing Minister Ariel Atias on Thursday warned against the spread of Arab population into various parts of Israel, saying that preventing this phenomenon was no less than a national responsibility. 

Haaretz, here
".... 5,000 immigrants from North America, France, Great Britain, South Africa and beyond ..... 
Absorption figures have been in steady decline since 2000. Last year, only 16,500 immigrants arrived in the country, the lowest number since the start of the massive immigration wave from the former Soviet Union in the 1990s. 
Eli Cohen, head of the Jewish Agency's department for immigration and absorption, cited the worldwide economic crisis as the primary motivator for the spike in immigration. "Israel is perceived as an island of stability compared with other places," he said"

Israeli submarine crosses Suez Canal with eye on Iran

AP, here
"An Israeli submarine crossed through the Suez Canal last month as a part of a military training exercise, defense officials said on Saturday. 
The move is believed to have been made as a warning to Iran of the Jewish state's capabilities and and to show that Israel and Egypt, are cooperating against a shared threat. The two countries share a peace agreement but have had cool relations for years. .....
Israel owns three dolphin-grade submarines, which can carry nuclear warheads. Israeli defense officials do not discuss the type of missiles that can be fired from the submarines, nor their range. ......
The Jerusalem Post reported this was the first time Israeli vessels had crossed the Egyptian canal since 2005...." 

Saturday, July 4, 2009

US blocking new sanctions on Iran?

Haaretz, here
"... diplomatic sources in New York reported that American officials are working behind the scenes to prevent new sanctions from being imposed against Iran. 
U.S. officials claimed that a tough stance toward Iran could backfire, bringing about an opposite outcome to that desired by those who support such measures. 
The Obama administration, according to the diplomatic sources, has discarded the notion of direct talks with Iran. However, the United States is still interested in re-engaging Iran through the renewed discussion of its nuclear program through the five permanent United Nations Security Council members and Germany....
In addition to U.S. reluctance to enact fresh sanctions, G8 members Russia and China have been known to oppose any punitive steps against Tehran. .."

"Obama rhetoric can boost engagement strategy"

Excerpts from OXFAN:
SOS Hillary Clinton on June 28 said that President Barack Obama was taking the situation in Iran "a day at a time", carefully calibrating his diplomatic and policy responses. Obama has faced pressure from across the US political spectrum to direct more rhetorical firepower against Tehran. However, recent US experience in dealing with authoritarian governments suggests that such pressure requires careful calibration to be effective.... 
Cold War experience. The US experience in seeking to influence authoritarian regimes during the Cold War suggests that while critiques have merit, they are incomplete and flawed:
  • Forceful rhetoric deployed injudiciously, without reference to the society in question and in the absence of engagement, is likely to be futile -- at best.
  • However, strategic public communications that seek to hold an authoritarian government accountable to its own professed standards, accompanied by diplomatic engagement, can sometimes support US policy objectives.
The Reagan legend. The most powerful proponents of strong US verbal condemnations of authoritarian regimes, particularly on the Right, usually point to the example of former President Ronald Reagan:
  • The 'evil empire'. ....verbal interventions supposedly helped precipitate the collapse of Moscow's influence, the fall of the Soviet Empire, and the end of the Cold War.
  • Reagan in Berlin. Reagan's most celebrated rhetorical intervention, in this respect, came in a 1987 speech before the Brandenburg Gate,........ to "tear down this wall".....
However, the argument that Reagan, by resolutely confronting Moscow in rhetorical and military terms, was the primary agent of the fall of the Soviet Union, has significant problems. This is because it:
  • is overly US-centric, underrates or ignores developments within Eastern Europe and, especially, the Soviet Union itself that had a more direct bearing on events;
  • suggests that Soviet attempts to match Reagan's military spending brought about economic instability, forcing Moscow to undertake destabilising reforms (scholarship shows compellingly that even extreme economic distress does not necessarily prompt collapse of authoritarian regimes);
  • underrates the ability of authoritarian regimes, such as the Soviets, to maintain their political grip by deploying massive coercive force (Moscow chose not to); and
  • discounts the crucial role played by Gorbachev. ........ 
Obama's Iranian strategy. The administration has declared that it will continue its strategy of engagement with Iran, notwithstanding the regime's post-election repression. Indeed, Obama has long used Reagan's tough negotiations with the Soviets to justify his own approach. The president also seems to have taken Gates's advice, and sought to criticise the regime in terms not limited to a US or Western perspective. For example, he has frequently invoked "universal" or "global" norms in urging Tehran to tolerate dissent and eschew brutality. 
However, Iranian law and the expressed ideals of the 1979 revolution may give him further rhetorical ammunition:
  • Article 27 of the Iranian constitution guarantees the right to freely hold "marches and public gatherings" as long as "arms are not carried" and the marchers observe "the fundamental principles of Islam".
  • Reformist former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami yesterday described the presidential election as a "coup against the republicanism of the system"; opposition leader Mir Hossein Moussavi has levelled similar charges.
This suggests that Obama may have an opportunity to use the Islamic Republic's own founding documents as basis for future criticism of the regime's repressive tactics. Like the Helsinki accords, the disconnect between an authoritarian government's expressed ideas and its behaviour in practice gives the president an opening he could exploit to his advantage, in the context of an engagement policy. ..."

"No sign Iran seeks nuclear arms"

Reuters, here

"I don't see any evidence in IAEA official documents about this," Yukiya Amano told Reuters in his first direct comment onIran's atomic program since his election, when asked whether he believed Tehran was seeking nuclear weapons capability.

Amano got the strongest backing from Western states keen for the IAEA to toughen steps against the spread of nuclear arms. But his rise has worried developing nations who see the non-proliferation maxim being used as an excuse to deny them a fair share of nuclear know-how.

Iran has exploited such tensions, winning sympathy in the developing world, by arguing that to stop uranium enrichment as major world powers demand would violate its sovereignty, stunt its energy development and perpetuate inequality....

Amano told reporters he would do his utmost to implement IAEA safeguard agreements in Iran and Syria. He also said there was hope for future agency work in North Korea, which told IAEA inspectors to leave in April and which has since carried out a nuclear test. It fired four short-range missiles on Thursday...."

Friday, July 3, 2009

"Well, the guy was definitely a Zionist.. they're not subject to the laws the rest of us are."

Jeff Stein, in CQ, here
"In court documents filed last week, a sketchy tale surfaced suggesting that someone wanted Franklin, the former Pentagon analyst who had agreed to testify against two pro-Israel activists on charges of espionage, dead.
In a Tuesday, June 30 interview, Franklin and his attorney Plato Cacheris, the famed criminal defense lawyer, elaborated on the shadowy incident.
"Somebody approached Larry and suggested it would be good if Larry could disappear and fake a suicide," Cacheris said, "and this person would assist him in doing that.".........
A man approached him at work, he said. It was sometime after 2005, when he was charged with providing classified information to AIPAC employees Steven J. Rosen and Keith Weissman, and their trial on espionage charges, which was repeatedly delayed by legal jousting over the past few years.....
"It was in West Virginia. I was parking cars at the time. He came to see me at the Charles Town Race Track. He said, 'Let's go to lunch and talk about raising money for my defense.' 
"I was going to go somewhere, and it was going to be arranged that I could occasionally meet my wife. It was supposed to be on a bridge."
In Israel?
"No," he said. "Florida."
Who was the man who approached him?
"Well, the guy was definitely a Zionist," Franklin said. "And he was a true believer. And like a lot of true believers, he's beyond good and evil. They're not subject to the laws the rest of us are." 

"A mother of 5, gets shot on her balcony.. No facebook groups .. ministers holding hands at press conferences, & no fear for Lebanon's image!"


Jamal at JP, here
"Three ministers took time off from their busy tourist  season schedule, after all one of these ministers promised the Lebanese 3 million visitors this summer, to address an issue that has thousands of citizens enraged in this country. The cancellation of  a French comedian's performances in Beiteddine has ruffled some elite feathers, as it should for where will this country be without the freedom of artistic expression. 
So what exactly happened, let's see. The dude was coming, so many people were enthused they added a second and then a third show... no problems there. General Security gave the OK even though it often prevents local acts from taking the stage, Visas are not an issue... Fine, then a TV reporter questions the dude's allegiances and thinks he's in bed with the Izzies.. Controversy, that's always good for business, free promotion... Dude cancels his trip.... Over 6000 activists join e-campaign against terrorisme intelectuel... 

I have to admire this stand against censorship although I'm having a hard time locating it. General Security is known to prevent shows or cut scenes from movies but that wasn't the case here and there were no threats made to the performer or the festivals. It was the  dude who cancelled his visit. On the Lebanese side, all that happened was that a reporter did not like the dude's alleged background...If the report is inaccurate then refute it but the reporter had no authority to and did not cancel the show... yet the ministers of Tourism, Press, and Culture felt that this reporter harmed Lebanon's image abroad. What will people say?!?!

Meanwhile Zeina Miri, 30 year old mother of 5, gets shot on her balcony. No facebook groups, no ministers holding hands at press conferences, and more importantly no fear for Lebanon's image." 

Gemayel: “If Lebanon wants to participate in a Saudi-Syrian summit, then it is preferable that it is held in Saudi Arabia,”


Kataeb's "Amine Gemayel told LBC on Thursday that, “Syria should take the initiative to demonstrate its good intentions in order to resolve pending issues between Beirut and Damascus.”
Gemayel called on the Syrian administration “to prove its good intentions through dismantling armed Palestinian bases and demarcating the border.” Gemayel added that they will be waiting for the STL’s verdict before entering into a serious relationship with Syria.
He also affirmed that the March 14 alliance is united and warned against attempts to interfere between its parties. He added that Lebanon’s sacrifices should not be “thrown away.”
“If Lebanon wants to participate in a Saudi-Syrian summit, then it is preferable that it is held in Saudi Arabia,” he said."

".. Dennis Ross was, to put it in straightforward lingo, dumped, fired, kicked the hell out ..."


"Dennis Ross: Goodbye and Good riddance. After much fussing around, and consulting with a wide range of Washington types, I am now convinced that we can lift our glasses and toast Dennis Ross' departure from his desk outside the principal's office at the State Department. I am told, by several people, whose access to the corridors of power at Foggy Bottom are unasailable, that Ross was, to put it in straightforward lingo, dumped, fired, kicked the hell out. He did something that clearly crossed the line, and was working at cross-purposes to Secretary of State Clinton and special envoy Mitchell. Maybe he also crossed Richard Holbrooke. I hope to get more of the inside details soon, but for now, I am convinced by these sources, that Ross was dumped, and that it was the AIPAC/WINEP crowd that had to be somewhat appeased, by giving Ross a desk at the National Security Council, somewhat equivalent to a cell with a view at one of those old Soviet gulags.

I dismiss the spin tales coming out of Lobby and neocon quarters, that Ross was brought over to the White House to "teach them a thing or two" about how to deal with Iran, and that he is the darling of Tom Donalon, the number two under General Jones.

That is the good news portion of what I am hearing. Ross will not give up without a fight, and he will count on the AIPAC/WINEP crowd continuing to whimper that he must be given a prominent seat at the table. Look for him to try to muck around with the expected new NIE on Iran.

But that aside, I call all of your attention to the recent friction, developing between the White House and the Secretary of State. The most immediate manifestations of this rift are: 1. The White House insistence that Secretary Clinton drop her plans to bring her longtime advisor and friend, Sid Blumenthal into State, as a personal advisor to the Secretary. I am told that, while Denis McDonough was the purveyor of the message from the White House to Hillary, it was actually Rahm Emanuel who led the charge against Blumenthal, and, by extension, against Secretary Clinton. There is a sycophant problem at the White House. The fact that Hillary Clinton has been doing a very effective job, repairing some of the damage from eight years of Bush-Cheney "diplomacy-free foreign policy," is now rubbing some of the sycophants the wrong way--as if her success somewho undermines the credibility of the President.

I considered this a relatively secondary matter, reflecting the usual personality frictions, in an administration top-loaded with smart people. But when Clinton announced yesterday that she was not going to Moscow with the President for his face-to-face summit with Medvedev and Putin, I inquired further, and got a clear indication that there are ruffled egos at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, who reacted with some paranoia about the prospect of a Hillary partisan like Blumenthal taking a slot at State.

This is bad news all around. The President's economic team, led by Larry Summers, Tim Geithner, Peter Orszag, and Rahm Emanuel himself, is so biased in favor of bailing out the banks, that they have squandered $8 trillion in taxpayers money, and have done nothing about the ever-shrinking real economy. Just look at the job losses since January--3 million net jobs lost from the U.S. economy, with other really serious repercussions.

In this context, the national security team, Gen. Jones, Sec. Def. Gates, Hillary, and the two special envoys--Mitchell and Holbrooke--have been operating effectively, with a degree of collegiality and genuine coordination of effort, that serves the President very well. You can disagree with some of their policy decisions, but I don't think there is any dispute that this is a team of experienced and well-intentioned people. Thus, if there is any real effort, for petty realpolitiking reasons, to disrupt or diminish this team, that is going to be a further disaster. And that worries me far more than the whereabouts of Dennis Ross."

"... Mossad fell into the trap of siding with the Lebanese Christian Phalange and being drawn into the first Lebanon war.."

HAARETZ, here
"Military intelligence experts have been proven wrong and even disgraced, for example, because of their assessments prior to and following the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War. Their predictions, in briefings before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, were undermined by the Iranians who initially did not collapse in the face of Saddam .........
the "Gulf curse" hit Meir Dagan, who recently had his tenure as director of the Mossad espionage service, extended to an eighth year - who made a belittling remark about the intensity and significance of the protests against the regime in Tehran.......
... A year and a half later Dagan was brought to Mossad and since then he has not stopped looking for trees at which to hurl his knife. He did not become powerful because of his assessment capabilities; sometimes he was proven right and sometimes he was mistaken. The main criteria for his job include the ability to gather information, to produce vital intelligence and to carry out operations. There is a worrying precedent, however. During Hofi's final year, Mossad fell into the trap of siding with the Lebanese Christian Phalange and being drawn into the first Lebanon war. Dagan's desire for an eighth year - as some think - because of his anticipation of developments connected with Iran, is a gamble that could end badly."

Thursday, July 2, 2009

(yawn, yawn) "Time for an Israel Strike?"


Bolton, in the WaPo, here
"... Accordingly, with no other timely option, the already compelling logic for an Israeli strike is nearly inexorable. Israel is undoubtedly ratcheting forward its decision-making process. President Obama is almost certainly not....
Significantly, the uprising in Iran also makes it more likely that an effective public diplomacy campaign could be waged in the country to explain to Iranians that such an attack is directed against the regime, not against the Iranian people. This was always true, but it has become even more important to make this case emphatically, when the gulf between the Islamic revolution of 1979 (IS BOLTON 'NOSTALGIC'?) and the citizens of Iran has never been clearer or wider. Military action against Iran's nuclear program and the ultimate goal of regime change can be worked together consistently.
Otherwise, be prepared for an Iran with nuclear weapons, which some, including Obama advisers, believe could be contained and deterred. That is not a hypothesis we should seek to test in the real world. The cost of error could be fatal."

“Saddam Hussein concerned about Iran discovering Iraq’s "weaknesses & vulnerabilities" considered deal with the US!

National Security Archives, here  and the WAPO, here

"... Hussein’s fear of Iran, which he said he considered a greater threat than the United States, featured prominently in the discussion about weapons of mass destruction. … Hussein said he was convinced that Iran was trying to annex southern Iraq — which is largely Shiite. [...]

“The threat from Iran was the major factor as to why he did not allow the return of UN inspectors,” Piro wrote. “Hussein stated he was more concerned about Iran discovering Iraq’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities than the repercussions of the United States for his refusal to allow UN inspectors back into Iraq.”

Hussein replied that throughout history there had been conflicts between believers of Islam and political leaders. He said that “he was a believer in God but was not a zealot…that religion and government should not mix.” Hussein said that he had never met bin Laden and that the two of them “did not have the same belief or vision.”

When Piro noted that there were reasons why Hussein and al-Qaeda should have cooperated — they had the same enemies in the United States and Saudi Arabia — Hussein replied that the United States was not Iraq’s enemy, and that he simply opposed its policies..."

"... McChrystal will not get a lot more troops than his 70,000 odd ..."

Lang, in SST, here

NSC's (Jim) "Jones appears to be the "flavor of the week."  He was on the "Newshour" a few nights ago for a major interview.  Now he appears in this story by Woodward highlighting his role.  Some of this "attention" is defensive and intended to fend off "log-rolling" by the usual people seeking to cause his departure from the NSC.  He is suspected of insufficient devotion to Israel and so we have had stories planted here and there about a lack of warmth between him and the president, etc.  This is a bit of a corrective.

At the same time, Jones (in Woodward's story) gives firm guidance to the military chain of command in the matter of Afghanistan.  The message is clear.  Afghanistan will be an "economy of force" theater of operations.  McChrystal will not get a lot more troops than his 70,000 odd.   He is to concentrate on disruption of groups actually hostile to the US.  Obama (and Jones) do not want to reproduce Iraq/Vietnam in Afghanistan.  The wondrous wonderfulness of Counterinsurgency (COIN) as a panacea appeals greatly to today's officers.  Military officers are always looking to get promoted.   They climb onto any "bandwagon" rolling in the right direction.  Today the "bandwagon" has "COIN" painted on the side.  Tomorrow?  Who knows what fell beast of brooding is slouching toward the dawn of some new doctrinal "revolution."  While McChrystal is occupied with this limited task, an emphasis will be placed on economic development under the aegis of an international consortium of donors.  The theory is that property will reduce the attractiveness of Islamic zealotry.  Will it?  Perhaps..

In any event, I think that the policy in Afghanistan reiterated by Jones is the wisest available.  Will it be possible to resist the temptation to increase the size of the force there?  Perhaps.  The generals will make endless pleas for more people.  They always do."

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

"Iran is still supporting, funding & training surrogates..They have not stopped & I don't think they will stop,"

"... Odierno directly implicated groups supported by Iran in recent rocket attacks against the walled-off Green Zone in central Baghdad."Those are being done by groups that have been trained in Iran, been funded by Iran," he said.
But, he said, the number of such attacks was "significantly smaller" due to security measures making them more difficult to carry out.
Speaking later to Pentagon reporters, Odierno said efforts by U.S. and Iraqi forces to go after Iran-supported militants, uncover weapons caches and control the flow of weapons across the border has made it much harder for Iran to maintain the explosives supply.
He also said intelligence has not detected any changes while Tehran has been gripped by huge street protests following charges of fraud in the June 12 presidential election. "They have kind of maintained themselves in a steady state as we've moved forward," he said."

My brother, Al Walid, .. is "disseminating vice & violating the rules of Islamic Sharia ..."

FP, here

"...Prince Khaled accused Prince Walid bin Talal of disseminating vice and violating the rules of Islamic Sharia in the conservative kingdom. Prince Walid is one of the richest businessmen in the world....

Prince Khaled said he had been forced to speak out after quiet efforts to advise his brother to mend his ways had fallen on deaf ears.

Prince Walid, known for his liberal lifestyle, owns a media empire which features entertainment channels that have long angered conservative Saudis.

Prince Khaled, told an Arabic website that his brother's plan to introduce cinema into Saudi society was the straw that broke the camel's back. "

Syria ambassador ... & VP Biden, "unofficial Iraq Envoy"...

LR, in the Cable, here
"...We hear two names are in the running, neither of whom could immediately be reached: Daniel Kurtzer, former U.S.ambassador to Israel and Egypt, and Jake Walles, currently serving as the U.S. consul general in Jerusalem....
and ...
Although hiring in the State Department's Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs is on hold until the nominee to be assistant secretary, Jeffrey Feltman, is confirmed, several people are
lined up for key positions. ...
and...
When The Cable reported last week on the much-anticipated official announcement of Dennis Ross's move to the NSC, we noted that one influence for shifting the Iraq portfolio from Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, the holdover war czar, to Puneet Talwar, the NSC's senior director for Iran, Iraq, and the Persian Gulf, was Talwar's former boss on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Joseph Biden, now the vice president.(becoming the unofficial Iraq Envoy ).."