Friday, October 26, 2012

WINEP/ AIPAC believes Hezbollah's days of dominance "are numbered"...

... but then again, Schenker/WINEP/ AIPAC have said the same since they started naming Hurricanes! 
"... Changing political dynamics in Beirut -- largely the result of events in Syria -- also pose a challenge for Hezbollah. Today, not only does the militia face the prospect of losing Assad, it also stands to lose the next elections and control of the Government. For while Hezbollah itself continues to command broad support among Shiites, the organization's Christian coalition partner, the Free Patriotic Movement led by Michel Aoun, appears to be losing popularity. At the same time, Lebanon's small but politically powerful Druze community headed by Walid Jumblatt is poised to bolt from the Hezbollah-led bloc and realign with the remnants of the pro-West, so-called March 14 coalition, enabling it to form a Government.To be sure, this combination of developments will not lead to the unraveling of the militia anytime soon. (and yet Schenker says) Even if Hezbollah is unable to rearm, with an estimated 100,000 rockets and missiles in its arsenal, the organization could potentially conduct several more wars with Israel and has the wherewithal to indefinitely withstand all domestic adversaries...."

No comments: