Monday, August 8, 2011

"Saudis will throw massive amount of resources to turn Syria into a key geopolitical & sectarian battleground"

Stratfor: "... It was not until the U.S. move to oust the Baathist regime in 2003 that a major window of opportunity appeared for Iran to try to transform Iraq from a threat to a potential satellite — a process the Iranians were hoping to finalize after U.S. forces complete their withdrawal, scheduled for the end of 2011.
These plans were proceeding apace, with Iran’s sphere of influence in the Arab world emerging as a continuous geography through Iraq to the Mediterranean, but the spring unrest across the Arab world spreading deep into Syria jeopardized this. After having finally placed Iraq in its orbit, Iran was staring at the potential loss of Syria. Considering what is at stake, Iran can ill afford to see the Syrian regime collapse — and with it its own geopolitical objectives — and Tehran can be expected to put massive resources toward ensuring that the regime survives in some form. Saudi Arabia is still weighing its options, but it knows that this opportunity to turn back Iran’s growing power in the heart of the Arab world may not come again soon. Should the Saudis decide to actively seek the fall of the Syrian regime, they too will throw a massive amount of resources at the goal, turning Syria into a key geopolitical and sectarian battleground."


Skeptical Founding Senior Member of the FLC said...

Saudi Arabia has other issues to deal with: succession, Yemen, and Bahrain, not withstanding the ramifications of Egypt returning to the Arab leadership. Add to that a shaky economy and the rise of poverty and discontent. The US debt crisis fragilizes even more a country whose survival depends upoon a failing empire! Adding Syria to its laundry list is not a priority even if Stratfor (sounding more and more as WINEP)would want us to believe so. It has been wrong on every single issue in the Arab world, and this pronouncement is likely to be like its predecssors. Not that there is no love lost between KSA and Syria, it is just a question of capability.

Anonymous said...

I wonder about that. Amidst all this chaos more important chaos the Saudis spent ample effort to publicize the pulling of their Ambassador from low-priority Syria. The Saudis may reckon that allying against Syria is its best ticket to continued power as the US enforcer. Doing so would shore up its most vulnerable survival plank- its usefulness to Washington. I believe they have miscalculated, not Stratfor on this one.