'The strategic polygon', Syria & Sarkozy ...

(Reuters) - "...  “He can’t go out on several fronts at once, and the front where he is engaged is starting to show the difficulties of such an operation,” said North Africa expert Christian Bouquet at the University of Bordeaux III. “On the ground Sarkozy has stated, human rights and democracy, there should be interventions in several countries including Syria, and Ivory Coast, but he would not be able to mobilize the international community ... and there would be a hierarchy problem of where he should go first.”

 

The tensions in Syria have not reached the level they did in Libya when Sarkozy called the emergency summit that launched air strikes against Moammar Gadhafi’s troops. Syria’s ties with Iran and the fact it borders Israel, Iraq and Turkey would make military action an undesirable option, especially given the high risk of repercussions from groups like the Palestinian Islamist Hamas movement or Hezbollah in Lebanon. “Iran is very involved with this regime. Iran would defend it with all means possible,” said Antoine Basbous, head of the Paris-based Observatory of Arab countries. “What’s at stake if the Syrian regime falls is not just a matter of Syria internally, the stakes are above all geopolitical ones on regional scale.”....

Sarkozy is in a tight spot because of the hero’s welcome he gave Assad at the Mediterranean summit in Paris in 2008, an event that reset Syrian relations with Europe after years of isolation for supporting terrorism. It will be hard for Sarkozy to turn against somebody he so publicly backed, even if his turnaround on Moammar Gadhafi shows he can ditch old friends if they prove too unsavory..... That said, Assad could still be a better bet for the West than a rashly decided replacement.... Most observers see Sarkozy continuing to use strong but measured diplomatic language on Syria ..."