Oxford Analytica: "Ashkenazi smoking something on Hezbollah 'coup d'etat'"

Israeli army chief Gabi Ashkenazi has warned of the risk of a Hizbollah coup in Lebanon in the event that its members are indicted by the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon, according to an army statement today. Local media close to Hizbollah have speculated that the group may launch a military takeover if Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri refuses to denounce the tribunal, which is investigating the assassination of his father, former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Tensions have escalated in recent months over the expected indictments, and Hizbollah has warned that cooperation with the tribunal will be considered equivalent to an attack on the movement. Cooperative regional efforts to find a solution to the crisis, and to moderate Hizbollah's response, appear to be having little success. A military takeover is unlikely -- the costs would be too high -- although a 'soft' takeover is plausible; Hizbollah and its allies could withdraw from the government, paralysing Hariri's cabinet and hoping for a parliamentary majority which would strengthen their position in the formation of a new government. However, such an outcome may be avoided, since the group is aware that there is little the tribunal can do to enforce its indictments.