Saturday, July 24, 2010

"... it will be important for the US & Israel to help solidify Gamal Mubarak's rule ..."

From Mubarak's friends in Israel, through the
Wash-Times/ here

" ... No other regional player can replace Egypt's stabilizing role - not Saudi Arabia, which has never been able or willing to translate its petro-wealth into political influence; not Turkey ......

A takeover by the Brotherhood would be a nightmare for the U.S. and Israel. Imagine the most populous regional state with the largest, best-equipped and -trained Arab army in the hands of this radical Islamist organization. Would Egypt continue to be a force for stability or, perish the thought, abrogate the peace treaty with Israel and conceivably even rejoin the conflict? Would Egypt be able to sit out a future round between Hezbollah and Israel?....A Muslim Brotherhoodtakeover in Egypt, along with the general rise of radical players in the region (Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas), would have negative ramifications for Saudi stability, too.

Rarely has there been a regional issue of such importance for the United States and Israel about which they can do so little. Neither has a successful record of intervening in Arab politics, and any overt attempts to influence events might further undermine Gamal; the regime already is tainted by its relations with the U.S. and Israel. The United States already provides Egypt with major foreign aid, and an increase would only have an impact long after the succession, as would a renewal ofU.S. democratization efforts. Covert operations could be undertaken to weaken the opposition, but it is extremely unlikely that any external player could do more than Egypt's powerful security apparatus. No realistic external military option exists.

If and when Gamal Mubarak or some other moderate takes over, it will be important for the United States and Israel to help solidify his rule by affording him some early successes, but both will be highly constrained in the

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Wow that article is really imperialism at its finest. God knows it would be a disaster if the Muslims of Egypt voted in a Muslim party to power.

Also in reality it would be hard to tell if the Muslim Brotherhood actually rose to power in Egypt. Since the party is officially banned most candidates run as Independents (with varying levels of commitment/differing views). It appears to mainly function today as a vast social movement of charities/community centres and student groups. I would say that the days of the Muslim Brotherhood being one united movement are well over.

Also to gain power it would probably rely a lot on the support of leftists which they have already joined with on issues like the Democracy movement.

I imagine if they did rise to power in the wake of Mubarak's demise it would be very similar politically to Turkeys Justice and Development party. It would be a broad coalition of vested interests under one general party.

Also it would probably starve a lot of the more radical Islamic groups of support if they made it into government.

Of course Mohamed ElBaradei could also has a good chance.