Monday, July 13, 2009

"... Mubarak may have set Suleiman up for failure ..."

Helena Cobban in IPS, here

"...Since January, the head of Egypt's military intelligence, Lieut.-Gen. Omar Suleiman, has been in charge of three key Middle East mediations. ...

Meanwhile, .....The big question regarding the Saudi succession hangs over whether, and how, the kingship will ever be transferred from the numerous ageing brothers and half-brothers who stand in line after Crown Prince Sultan, to the "next generation" of princes - some of the more senior of whom are already nearing 70 years old. ......
These differences are inevitably hard fought over at times of succession,
and could at the least distract Riyadh from playing the role in regional diplomacy that Obama wants it to play. (At worst, the kingdom could see a struggle between its many power centres that is even deeper and more debilitating than the one now rocking nearby Iran.)
In Egypt, meanwhile, there have been many recent reports that the country's 81-year-old president, Hosni Mubarak, is ailing and finally eager to quit. Some reports say he has already told the Saudi monarch he may not even finish serving his current six-year term in office, which ends in 2011. ...
Behind the scenes in Egypt, though, the military is still almost the same big force in the political system - and economy - that it has been since 1952. There is a considerable question whether the shadowy power centres in the Egyptian military will support Gamal Mubarak, ......
The fact that Suleiman has been tasked by Pres. Mubarak with diplomatic jobs that are so important to the broader progress of Washington's regional peace diplomacy
means this diplomacy may well become entangled in any succession struggle that occurs in Cairo. For example, if - as many well-placed Egyptians claim - Pres. Mubarak strongly wants his son to follow him in office, he may be less than eager to see Suleiman gain public kudos as a successful negotiator. There has been some questioning whether Mubarak may have set Suleiman up for failure by giving him overly strict parameters for his diplomatic chores. ......If Suleiman succeeds in one or more of his diplomatic tasks, then Hamas would immediately gain much more international legitimacy as a valid participant in the broader peacemaking. Many NDP insiders fear that could reflect well on the MB, too.
.........Jordan is smaller and weaker than Egypt and Saudi Arabia. There at least, the ruling monarch, Abdullah II, has laid to rest - for now - the questions that once swirled around his succession. On Jul. 2 he appointed his son Prince Hussein as crown prince. Prince Hussein is only 15 years old. But since the king is only 47, there is a good chance the crown prince will not be taking over any time soon. (Or perhaps, ever..."

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