Friday, July 24, 2009

"..Mubarak & Abdullah, believe they are the last leaders of their nations who will have such a pro-American orientation..."

LR, in the CABLE, here

".... "If you don't set deadlines in this town, things don't happen," the U.S. president said. "The default position is inertia ... There's always going to be some interest out there that decides, ‘You know what, the status quo is working for me a little bit better.'"...

A flurry of upcoming meetings between senior U.S. and Israeli officials suggest that Washington is determined to try to overcome the current impasse....
National Security Advisor Gen. James. L. Jones ...to lead a separate multiagency team ....Iran is expected to be the major focus of these talks, which are separate from the Gates' trip, a U.S. defense official said. Some Iran watchers believe if Iran hasn't responded to the offer for talks by September, that the process for organizing a tougher sanctions regime targeting Iran will begin to get underway at the U.N. General Assembly in September and subsequent G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh, although administration and outside sources have indicated Russia is not likely to support such measures until after the end of the year. ....
"Mitchell asks Israel for a complete settlement freeze, but hasn't put it into the proper context," a former senior George H.W. Bush administration official told Foreign Policy on condition of anonymity. "He's trying to create the appropriate conditions for peace negotiations for a two-state solution. However, the negotiations must be prefaced by the administration stating the parameters of a two-state solution, which are widely known. Starting talks without that context and without U.S. engagement will be futile given the level of distrust on both sides."...
"My sense is they know that while they got a majority of the Jewish vote ... that there is an unease in the community," said one involved right-leaning Jewish leader who met with Obama earlier this month, who asked to speak anonymously. "I think they know they have a problem. Ross is being brought in" to the White House because they know "they have some problems in the policy. But that doesn't mean the policy will change."
He acknowledged, however, that White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel "is very committed," to Obama's tough-minded approach and Middle East peace push. He added, "This administration is five people: Rahm, Axelrod, Gibbs, the president and McDonough"....
Even if the United States and Israel are able to come to an agreement on settlements and move forward, other hurdles of course remain. For one, the Saudis have indicated they don't intend to show Israel reciprocal gestures in exchange for a settlement freeze. Instead, several experts familiar with the Saudi position say, they feel they have offered the ultimate incentive in the Arab peace plan that would normalize relations between Israel and 23 Arab states once Israel and the Palestinians resolve their dispute.
"The problem that all Arabs have is that the administration keeps talking to them about steps of normalization," the former senior George H.W. Bush official said. "But they feel they have offered the ultimate step towards normalization" -- in the Arab peace initiative -- "not steps toward it -- in other words the whole enchilada .............
Middle East expert and former consultant to the U.S. National Intelligence Council Stephen P. Cohen, author of the forthcoming Beyond America's Grasp: A Century of Failed Diplomacy in the Middle East, said the all-or-nothing style of thinking of the Arab peace plan may reflect the fact that Arab leaders such as Egypt's Hosni Mubarak and Saudi King Abdullah, because they are autocrats, can make decisions without having to bring along parliaments and win elections. Israeli prime ministers and American presidents, of course, do not have as much discretion.
But, speaking at a small forum this week in Washington, Cohen said that on his recent trips to Riyadh and Cairo, Arab leaders told him of another concern: that Mubarak and Abdullah, both in their 80s, believe they are the last leaders of their nations who will have such a pro-American orientation, and be either as able or inclined to help deliver peace. Their own abilities to do so, he said, may be reduced as possible succession struggles set in..."

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