Sunday, April 19, 2009

"...Unfortunately, Suleiman and his caretaker team probably won't have enough time to make a real dent in Lebanon's political culture..."

Lebanese army soldier carry the coffin of their colleague Mohamed Ahmad Mroun after he and three other soldiers were killed and thirteen were injured in an attack that targeted a  the Bekaa Valley.
TIME, here
".... However, this latest battle for the Bekaa will probably be inconclusive. Stronger nations than Lebanon have failed to win their own wars on drugs. ... Expectations were low, .. the country was torn apart by squabbles between the Iran-backed opposition led by Hizballah, the anti-Israeli militia group and political party, and the American- backed government that Hizballah suspected of trying to disarm it ... though Suleiman was respected by all sides, the political compromise that put him in office did nothing to solve the underlying issue dividing the country: should Lebanon be at the front line in the Arab and Iranian war with Israel, or should it be a Western-oriented nation, accommodated to Israel and focused on trade and tourism?
With the cooperation of both Hizballah and the United States, the Lebanese have begun modernizing an armed forces ... so weak and poorly-equippedmostly focused on tactics and systems to secure its borders and fight international terrorism.....Unfortunately, Suleiman and his caretaker team probably won't have enough time to make a real dent in Lebanon's political culture. Parliamentary elections scheduled for June are likely to reopen all the old wounds. Both sides seem unprepared to return to the status quo. Hizballah no longer trusts its rivals to leave the group's military infrastructure untouched. And the American-supported coalition is busy scaring voters with dire scenarios of what will happen if the Hizballah opposition wins enough seats to form its own government: international sanctions and isolation akin to what happened when Hamas rose to power in Gaza...."

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