Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Lebanon awaits the debacle ...and Siniora meets Al Faisal after his Oval Office stint...

Non-civilian sources in Beirut, confirmed (and believe) that the a major & "nasty conflagration" (whatever that means and however it looks) between Hezbollah & Israel is at that stage, a "given" .... But I am also told that internally Hezbollah is looking to the FUTURE movement of Saad Hariri and its newly "equipped & trained" cadres AND THEIR "newly found friends in the SALAFI movement... to play a role once the bullets start flying. While people looked to the 2 "Js" (Jumblatt & Jea'jea') as the most likely candidates to provide the internal Praetorians, it is seemingly the men of the FUTURE movement (and their "assembled and assorted militias" including Fath El Islam & the likes ) who will provide the "cover" for an all out assault ...


Anonymous said...

Do you mean the Future cadres will fight with Hizballah?

I doubt it if that is so. What is more likely is an attempt at some sort of pincer movement with the Israelis attacking from the south and the "Salafists" (which is what they will be called) attacking Hizballah from the north..It will of course be pure coincidence. Israel and Al Qaida fighting their greates enemy together, who would have thought.......

G, M, Z, or B said...

Yup Mo... to be more precise! The Saudi financed pincers are coming. I trust you'll tell me what goes between Siniora & Al Faisal in London (wednesday)

Anonymous said...

Lol..Im sure I can tell you now:

Siniora: You got the check?
Faisal: Yup,You got the troops ready?
Siniora:Yup, When does Israel attack?
Faisal: As soon as Nasrallah retaliates for Damascus.
Siniora:That could take too long! We might get Nahr El Bared all over again
Faisal:Don't worry. If they dont do something soon, we have a guy who will attempt to assasinate the Israeli ambassador in xxxxx. Then they will attack.
Sinora: Ok great. Tell the King that Saad says hi to Amo Abdullah

Salem said...

Anis Al Naqash practically said the same thing the other day in an interview with Ghassan Bin Jeddo (and Elias el Zoughbi if it makes any difference).
He didn't specify Hariri's future movement or any of its dragoons but he was clear that Saudi petrodollars are being poured into armed anti-Hezbollah factions.
The interesting thing was what he said 2 minutes before the closing, he spoke about armed groups from some of the opposition parties are trained and set on full alert in case anyone tries to coerce the opposition and Hezbollah into civil war during a major regional conflict.

Anonymous said...

Not to rain on the parade of 'armchair' generals and doomsday seers, the mountain is likely to lay down a mouse. Indeed, the Hezb is going to retaliate and significantly. Israel will retaliate but in a limited way. Israel is stretched thin in Gaza. The US army is more than stretched thin in Ayrak and Afghanistan. As to the local thugs in Beirut, the Al Mustaqbal 'forces' have been routed in the last few days. People earning $300-$500 a month are not going to die for Saad. Their parents won't let them! If you think this is a joke, come over to Beirut and look it over yourself. The thugs have asked for a truce supervised by the Army. Suddenly, the streets of Beirut have become calm. Jumblat is scared shitless from Weam Wahhab and most druzes are not willing to die for him, for Saad, or for anyone for that matter. Furthermore, the Hezb can round up all the 'chieftains' in one night and it is over. As for the convicted criminal and assassin, his nemesis the General is ready for him. But it is quite pleasant, easy, to speculate over doomsday in Lebanon. Israel has lost the war and it will have to live with it. The Saudis can do nothing but pay the US to forget that Bandar and AlQaeda are in cohoots. This is a sorry coalition.
Civil peace in Lebanon is more resilient than people are willing to give the Lebanese credit for.
However, the real danger are the Salafis and they no particular friends of Saad. They have their own agenda and God knows what else.

mo said...

senior founding...etc.,

As I am not in Beirut, i'll take your word that the future forces have been routed, but how exactly? Those few flare ups?

You cannot possibly know how Israel will retaliate without knowing what Hizballah are going to do. It is less involved in Gaza today that it was in july 06 and I certainly wouldnt call them stretched.
If Hizballahs retaliation is as serious as they are promising, the loss of face may force into a big enough retaliation to escalate this very quickly, and imho that is what Imads killing was meant to achieve.

It has been Israels modus operandi for decades. Do something that your enemy will retaliate for and then attack claiming you are responding as the victim of a vicious attack.

For me the end game for "majority" and Israel is obviously the removal of Hizballah. For the majority it allows to get on with raping Lebanon and the Israelis get access to the Litani. I do not believe there is an appetitite for civil war but I do believe that M14 are trying to engineer it. They may believe that with Hizballah occupied with any incursion in the South, they will be weaker in the north (which was the signifigance of Nasrallahs message stating that he now had tens of thousands of fighter in my opinion).

Who said anything about the US army? They still haven't got over '83.

Jamal said...

This scenario was in play in 2005. Gringos' air force delegated the job to Izzies' in 2006. Nato became Unifil. Local thugs now have the Dahlan example to look up to, and Wiam happened. It's over, this doesnt fly anymore.

It's only a matter of taking out the garbage (Bandar's kooks and their only still-eager ally up in Bkirki, i mean Bsharre, Mearab, wherever the fuck he is).