Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Reappraise US Lebanon Policy

From MEI' by Graeme Bannerman, here
"... Syria is clearly much weaker than the US, but it has greater interests in Lebanon. The US may view Lebanon as a concern but not as essential to its national security. Lebanese, like the voters in Metn, increasingly think US interests in Lebanon are unsustainable and will fade, but Syrian interest will not...
American leaders need to realize that the local election in Metn is a clear signal of a shift in Lebanese opinion against American policy. Lebanese leaders who have linked their fate to American power and influence against their domestic opponents will use every means they have to persuade Washington not to change course..."

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Excellent piece. What the author has not mentioned about the elections in the Metn region is the formidable coalition of efforts that included the US embassy, Hariri money, the media belonging to him,Arab support (Gulf states and Saudi Arabia)to defeat Aoun's candidate. Notwithstanding the emotional support to the Gemayyel family who withstood the assassination of Pierre Gemayel in December 2006, one can imagine what almost unsurmountable odds Aoun's candidate had to overcome, making his victory a significant setback for US policy in Lebanon. The Metn election is a forerunner of things to come.

Salem said...

The most important message General Michel Aoun has sent to the US administration is on his Aljazeera interview, which went something like this:
If we ever want to teach our children about the US administration's spread of democracy, this administration must help us in this by pursuing a more balanced and fair policy in Lebanon that clearly projects what they preach.

Blacksmith Jade said...

Ugh...these comments were painful to read.

Seriously now?

"a significant setback for US policy"?

Ha! - to which I'll add another ha! because the comment is just that laughable.

As for Salem, general Aoun sending messages to the US...yeah ok. Last time I checked Nasrallah wasn't even taking his calls (let alone nominating him for the presidency!) and Aoun had to do with talking to Nasrallah's "political advisor".

Wow, he sure as hell is doing an impeccable job "restoring Christian influence" or whatever the hell he rants about before completely contradicting himself the next day.

In any case, don't worry yourselves about the elections too much, it came down to voting blocks and the bigger ones won. Given the 2005 elections, I would say that most independents in the Metn shied away from Aoun this time actually bringing down his popularity...ah, but what do I know?

Anonymous said...

very nice peas... i meant peace.

G, M, Z, or B said...

Hey Junior.
as long as you can (and will) attend the lunches (and cough up the check every 5th week) you're on!
welcome

Anonymous said...

Every fifth week! I thought you were only three and that I would be the fourth member... so every four weeks? As soon as I am a resident of your neck of the woods, I will take you up on that...
And Blacksmith Jade, you missed the point of the piece, didn't you? It's not a YES for Aoun as much as it is a NO to the US' dangerous policy of sowing divisions and excluding the political representatives of a sizable junk of the population!

Anonymous said...

What I love more than anything about the Aouni victory in Metn is how much it pisses off the Christian M14ers! Bend the numbers this way or that way, it's inconceivable that Gemayel could lose that one (by whatever margin) without a massive rejection of the reckless policies his silly coalition is pursuing! Even given the fact that he was arguably Lebanon's worst president, it still doesn't explain how he could lose his slain son's seat in his own backyard.
"Denial is the first stage to recovery." Except in the case of many Lebanese, it's usually the first step towards the brink.

Blacksmith Jade said...

Haha, I'll agree with you that he was "arguably the worst president" - afterall he did nominate Aoun to take over after him.

As far as the election results are concerned one could even say I'm content (which is a ways away from pissed off) Gemayel's hair didn't win and in reality neither did Aoun (his post-elections shredded presidential aspirations are a case in point).

What I get a kick out of is this "we showed America" attitude which is ridiculously hilarious and sad. I mean how much did Aoun show America when he's on TV crying: "just tell me what you want (boo hoo) tell me what you want!!"

In any case a little cynism here, a little rationality there and we're all OK. Don't make the mistake of thinking that if a person supports a certain position then he sees no wrong in those standing alongside him...

...its just a matter of doing the right thing at the right time.

Blacksmith Jade said...

Oh an GPC...


...the deed is done, so lets see some blacksmiths of lebanon action up on that blogroll of yours ;)

bishop said...

i think i agree with everything that was posted...

except the part about how that LOCAL election was evidence that THE PEOPLE OF LEBANON... (it was more probably evidence of a small part of the population of Lebanon)

Salem said...

blacksmith, Nasib met with Berri last week, what did he put in the "mailbox"?

Anonymous said...

No, No and No again, dear Jade!
Again ,the US-propped coalition had the cheapest shot at winning this election with an abundance of money, formidable tearjerk material, support from regional big-money media -- and they STILL couldn't win! This is a blow to America! Admittedly, its just another blow in a loooong series of blows; yet another sign that many inhabitants of even this "western-leaning" Christian enclave reject the calamitous American project, because it leads to disaster.

Trust me, Jade. I would like to believe that the Lebanese are sick of the old feudal/warlord game which is why they told Amin's hair to go shove it (by whatever margin), but it's unfortunately far from true... quite the opposite. You know that as well as I do.
Even in his own backyard, Amin's hair represents the perils of pax Amerikana!