Friday, July 20, 2007

From the MEPGS newsbrief (excerpts)

" ... With intentional understatement, one key State Department official, noted "with the situation not improving in Iraq," theAdministration is taking an approach that was once "anathema". More important, says this official, "This can lead to a wider dialogue." The new operating principle is "Can an approach be effective", which replaces the ideological driven policies of the pasts. An example cited by this official is US policy towards Syria. "In the past we were unwilling to talk to the Syrians because it was thought that would legitimize them. This has been replaced by judging any approach in terms of whether it will advance US interests [As part of this effort, some thought is being given to a grant of immunity to all heads of state attending the next international meeting on Iraq, say informed sources This would be a gesture to Syrian President Assad, whomay feel the upcoming International Tribunal looking into theassassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri,could implicate the entire Syrian leadership]...
" ... However, even if Middle East antagonists such as Syria and Iran were not to continue to pursue a hard line, some Administration insiders appear to be far from willing to embrace Secretary Rice's apparent outreach. At a recent "Deputies"meeting it was proposed that airlines servicing Damascus bebarred from entering the US market. The reasoning was that Syria should be punished for allowing Jihadists from the Arab world touse Damascus as a gateway to Iraq. This proposal was shelved only after forceful arguments were made by State Department experts, who pointed out that a number of European airlines regularly fly in and out of Damascus..."
"... Even the willingness of the new Sarkozy government to entertain sanctions outside the framework of the UN SecurityCouncil, is not enough to satisfy key Administration officials. They are aware that other Europeans countries, notably Germany and Italy are less than enthusiastic about imposing tough sanctions on Teheran. Moreover, many officials both here and inEurope are looking over their shoulders at Israel. So, far the Israelis, in their own words, have been "very supportive of the US diplomatic effort." But as one well-placed Israeli official put it recently, "There is no indication that Iran is slowing down [its nuclear program]." And while key Israeli officials profess not to be anxious about the current state of US diplomatic efforts, they say that relative complacency could quickly change unless the US makes significant progress over the coming months. Says one US official, "I don't believe that anyone in a position of responsibility in Israel has set atimetable, let alone decided what to do should we be unable to shut down Iran's enrichment program. However, I also do notdoubt, that given their anxieties and their influence around here, that they may well determine the turning point away from diplomacy..."

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