Nasr: 'Applaude a Turkish-Iranian rapprochement: It could rid us of Assad & Hezbollah'!

"... If Iran does conclude a long-term nuclear deal with the West, it still cannot expect a warm welcome from the Sunni Arab world. With the region divided by a widening sectarian rift, the Persian Gulf monarchies will become only more fretful about Iran’s regional ambitions. That makes Turkey potentially a key strategic partner for Iran, especially if its economy starts to grow as sanctions are relaxed.With American influence in the region in decline, and with Israel and the Persian Gulf monarchies finding themselves united in their opposition to Iran, Turkey could find itself playing a central role thanks to its links with Iran. A new Turkish-Iranian partnership could be a welcome development for the West: Turkey’s economic ties could boost Iran’s commercial development, which would help consolidate the political position of the moderates in Tehran. The real gains would come if a closer relationship with Turkey began to erode the alliance of militias and radical religious forces on which Iran has relied to project its influence.
To play this enlarged regional role, though, Turkey must first reassure the West that it will remain a trusted NATO ally and not demonize Western allies as a way of managing political dissent at home. However Mr. Erdogan’s domestic difficulties fall out, Turkey has an opportunity to restore its international standing. It will have to show that it is not simply an advocate for Iran, but has used its influence to shift Iran’s foreign policy and facilitate a permanent nuclear deal."

"Expect more of this as various little countries seek to demonstrate their domination of American policy"

"... Sleiman, whose term expires May 25, defended the kingdom against accusations made by Hezbollah that Saudi intelligence was behind the Nov. 19 Iranian Embassy bombing in Beirut...."

France begs for contracts with Saudia, while accusing Riadh of arming al Qaeda in Syria!

Le Figaro:

"... Mais si les deux pays convergent sur l’objectif, des différences apparaissent sur les moyens d’y parvenir. Alors que l’Arabie saoudite se déclare favorable à des livraisons d’armes aux rebelles - y compris aux islamistes qui viennent de s'emparer du QG de l’Armée syrienne libre (ASL) - la France elle est beaucoup plus réticente, accusant même parfois mezza voce Ryad de jouer « un double jeu », en aidant tout à la fois les modérés de l’ASL et les radicaux salafistes qui ont le vent en poupe en Syrie. A qui sont destinés les 15 000 missiles antichars que Ryad compte acquérir auprès des Etats-Unis, si ce n’est aux rebelles syriens, constatent un tantinet inquiets certains observateurs du conflit syrien ? L’Arabie vient en effet de rappeler qu’avec ou sans appui extérieur, elle agirait en Syrie. Au Liban, qui subit de plein fouet les conséquences de la guerre chez son voisin, comme l’atteste encore l’assassinat vendredi d’un proche du leader sunnite Saad Hariri, les deux partenaires militent pour que cesse le vide institutionnel – absence de gouvernement depuis six mois. A cette fin, Paris et Ryad entendent renforcer les capacités d’action de l’armée libanaise. D’où la décision prise par l’Arabie - qui sera annoncée au cours de la visite - de financer la fourniture par la France d’un « important soutien » matériel aux forces armées libanaises (FAL), les seules à maintenir un semblant d’unité dans un pays où la fracture confessionnelle se creuse en raison de l’implication du Hezbollah chiite aux côtés de Damas et des radicaux sunnites auprès des rebelles syriens. Le chef de l’Etat français a d’ores et déjà pris contact avec le président de la République libanaise Michel Sleiman pour « définir » les besoins des FAL..."

Saudi Arabia pledges $3bn to Lebanese President to get an extension in office & help destroy Hezbollah!

... and Michel Sleiman rushes to accept the money and the task!

"... The Sunni Muslim kingdom of Saudi Arabia may be seeking to bolster the army as a counterbalance to Lebanon's powerful Hezbollah, a Shia armed group and political party backed by regional Shia power Iran..."

Iraq's all out war against Syria's 'rebels'

"... Iraq’s Prime Minister Maliki has been a strong supporter of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and reports suggested that his government was facilitating the transfer of Iranian arms to Syria...“Photographs and intelligence information indicate that whenever there is pressure on armed groups in Syria, they withdraw to Iraq... to regroup and then carry out terrorist operations in the two countries,” Askari said..."

Egypt declares the Muslim Brotherhood group & its organization as a terrorist organization

"... CAIRO (AP) — Egypt's military-backed interim government has declared the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist group, a dramatic escalation that gives authorities more power in cracking down on them.Hossam Eissa, the Minister of Higher Education, read out the Cabinet statement after long meeting on Wednesday.
Eissa said: "The Cabinet has declared the Muslim Brotherhood group and its organization as a terrorist organization."..."

Few are still harping that Assad has many friends

"... The Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad has received substantial imports of Iraqi crude oil from an Egyptian port in the last nine months, shipping and payments documents show, part of an under-the-radar trade that has kept his military running despite Western sanctions..."

'In effect, effect, Israel will have a second Hizbollah on its border.."

DIA's TTG at SST.

"... On 3 November, after the recapture of Safira by Syrian forces, I wrote that, “Things aren’t going too well for the Syrian rebels. Not only that, the Syrian army is evolving into something far more dangerous to its enemies than the conventional 60s era Soviet model army it once was. It is also gaining experience in joint operations with Hizbollah, the Quds Force and Iraqi Shia volunteers.” At that time I felt that victory for the Assad regime was all but a sure bet. Now Jeff White, writing for WINEP, comes to that conclusion as well, but with noticeably less certainty and enthusiasm than I.I feel the primary reason for the Assad regime’s rosier prognosis is the transformation that has occurred in the Syrian armed forces over the last two years. The results of this transformation can be seen in a Press TV documentary on the Battle of Al Qusayr. Watch the video and pay attention to the narration. Yes, it’s a propaganda piece, but the information is there to see and hear. See how the Syrian army planned for the methodical encirclement and reduction of the rebel forces. They successfully penetrated the rebels communications system and determined their locations before seizing the key terrain piece that dominated the entire area. They quickly adjusted their plans to take advantage of developing situations. They made effective use of combined arms tactics and supporting fires. They conserved their forces for future operations. And they worked effectively with Hizbollah infantry and local militias. That’s coalition warfare. That's an adaptive, modern military force with effective combat leadership at all levels. 

The only game changer mentioned by Jeff White that I feel could have brought the regime down was a direct, full blown R2P intervention by the US that would have destroyed Syrian air assets, command and control mechanisms and probably major combat forces. That kind of attack would not have gotten rid of Assad, but it would have made the transformation of the Syrian armed forces moot. In exchange for giving up his chemical weapons (more of a strategic deterrent force than a tactical asset), Assad conserved his developing forces and freedom of action. According to Rick Francona, who I knew for years at DIA, Syria may get previously contracted Yak-130 and MiG-29M2 aircraft from Russia in exchange for agreeing to give up the chemical weapons. This would provide a significant upgrade to Syrian air to ground capability to complement their developing ground forces. They are in it for the long haul.
A month ago I predicted that there will be much greater interoperability and trust between Hizbollah and Syrian forces along Israel's northern border in the future. I see Syrian forces, or at least a sizable portion of those forces, gaining the capability and the intent to defend Syria in a similar way that Hizbollah defends Lebanon. It won't be an offensive force capable of overrunning Israel, but it will make Israeli military action against Syria more difficult and costly. In effect, Israel will have a second Hizbollah on its border. Freeing the Golan Heights could become a rallying cry for this new force further complicating Israeli calculations.'

AIPAC/ WINEP change of heart: 'Assad regime will probably win'

"... "The war could indeed have a military outcome, and in light of current trends, that outcome could be a regime victory. The outlines of a regime strategy for winning the war are visible. This strategy hinges on the staying power of the regime and its allies, the generation of adequate forces, operational success, and continued divisions within rebel forces. It is subject to serious constraints, especially limitations on the size and effectiveness of regime and associated forces, and "game changers" could alter its course. But a regime victory is possible -- and that is what the regime is counting on."

Epitome of Irony: 'Al Qaedaesque group "refuses to meet with US Officials"!'

"... The U.S. ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, told al Arabiya, a Saudi-owned Arabic language news service, that the leadership of the Islamic Front had refused to meet with U.S. officials, a day after Secretary of State John Kerry opened the door to such negotiations.“The Islamic Front has refused to sit with us without giving any reason,” Ford said in Arabic. “We are ready to sit with them because we talk to all parties and political groups in Syria.”

More, here, on how US officials  view the Islamic Front as the generic brand of al Qaeda.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/12/18/212072/syrian-rebel-group-rejects-talks.html#storylink=cpy

"President Obama can’t make sound & effective Mideast policy by disregarding on-the-ground reality"

Leverett:

"... How it compares to other conflicts:  In Syria, it’s not really a Sunni-Shite divide; it’s more a divide between those who want to live in a nominally secular state and those who want to live in a Sunni Islamist state.  In Libya, there was certainly an Islamist element in the opposition to Gadhafi, but you don’t really have the kind of sectarian divide in Libya or Egypt that you do in Syria.The geopolitical context of the Syrian conflict is also different. Syria, in the end, is more geopolitically important than, say, Libya or Yemen.  That’s one reason the Assad regime has enjoyed more international support than Gadhafi did in Libya.  The United States was able to get a UN Security Council resolution authorizing an intervention in Libya in March 2011.  Russia and China abstained on that resolution, letting it go through, but both came to believe that the United States and its partners have abused this resolution.  Moscow and Beijing quickly concluded that letting the Libya resolution through had been a mistake—a mistake they were determined not to repeat where Syria is concerned.  

Where the United States stands:  It was extremely foolish for Obama to say in August 2011 that “Assad must go,” because it means that the United States cannot be serious about conflict resolution in Syria.  Likewise, it was foolish for Obama to draw his “red line” about chemical weapons use during his reelection campaign.  So when chemical weapons were used in Syria in August this year, Obama was trapped by his own rhetoric.  He said he would use force, but of course, the UN Security Council wouldn’t endorse it.  The Arab League, NATO and the British Parliament wouldn’t endorse it.  And it soon became apparent that, because of public opposition, even Congress wasn’t going to endorse it.  Since then, the US has really not had a coherent Syria policy. Supporting the opposition has failed.  Only a diplomatic resolution, which the United States can’t seriously support because of Obama’s August 2011 remarks, will work. 

What Happens Next:  Assad will continue to strengthen his position on the ground.  But as long as Saudi money and weapons get to the opposition groups, they will be able to continue a campaign—and so the violence will go on.  The only way out is diplomacy aimed at a political settlement between Assad and the opposition.  Until the Obama administration is willing to walk back from some of the positions it has taken regarding Assad and is willing to push allies like Saudi Arabia to halt the flow of weapons to oppositionists, it will be difficult to get a serious political process going.  In the absence of a serious political process, the violence could go on for a very long time."

Fmr. NSC Iran Expert, Gary Sick: "That is what we tried to do in Iraq. It is called occupation!"

"... In fact, the enforcement of the objectives of this bill would require a permanent US presence in the decision-making process of the Iranian government, because there is no way to insure that someone in Iran is not plotting to build a nuclear weapon except to be omnipresent.That is what we tried to do in Iraq. It is called occupation, and it is achieved not by negotiation but by war..."

Al-Qaeda leader in Syria: "It's only a matter of days,”

"... In his first-ever televised interview, Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra, ruled out peace talks with President Bashar al-Assad and warned that Arab states should be cautious of the recent improvement of Iran-US ties.“The battle is almost over, we have covered about 70 percent of it, and what's left is small. We will achieve victory soon. We pray to God to culminate these efforts with victory. It's only a matter of days,” he said in an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera’s Tayseer Allouni from an undisclosed location in Syria..."

US Officials: 'Saudi 'alternative' to al Qaeda in Syria is, well, run by, ... al Qaeda'

 The Long War Journal

"... US officials point out, however, that al Qaeda's senior leadership was clever enough to place multiple bets within the Syrian insurgency.In late November, Ahrar al Sham was one of several groups that announced the formation of a new Islamic Front, which has been billed as an Islamist or jihadist alternative to al Qaeda. But al Qaeda's presence within Ahrar al Sham ensures that it maintains some degree of influence within the new coalition, the US officials point out.Ahrar al Sham holds some of the Islamic Front's key positions ..."

Egypt's Morsi charged with 'terrorist acts'

"... In a statement, the prosecutor said that Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood had committed acts of violence and terrorism in Egypt and prepared a "terrorist plan" that included an alliance with the Palestinian group Hamas and Lebanon's Hezbollah..."

مقابلة خاصة: السفير السوري لدى الصين الدكتور عماد مصطفي

Full, here 

"... وفيما يتعلق بمؤتمر السلام الدولي حول سوريا المقرر انعقاده في 22 يناير المقبل بجنيف، أكد السفير السوري أنه يعتقد أن أهم ما يجب أن يتمخض عن المؤتمر هو كيف تتفق جميع أطراف البيت السوري وكل الدول الإقليمية والعالمية على مكافحة خطر الإرهاب في سوريا، وأي شي غير ذلك لا قيمة له إذا لم يتفق على وضع حد لتدفق الجماعات الإرهابية على سوريا، علما بأن هناك إرهابيين من أكثر 80 دولة يقاتلون حاليا هناك، ومعظمهم يتدفقون إلى سوريا عبر الحدود التركية، فعلى تركيا وغيرها من الدول الإقليمية أن تغلق حدودها في وجه هولاء الإرهابيين. وعلى نفس القدر من الأهمية ، يجب على الدول التي ترعى الفكر الإسلامي المتشدد لهذه الجماعات الإرهابية أن تتوقف عن الضخ الإعلامي والسياسي والديني المؤيد لها، ولا تصورها كأنها جماعات تقاتل من أجل الحرية، مشيرا إلي إن السيناريو الذي يحدث في سوريا اليوم مناف تماما للعقل والمنطق، فهناك دولة إسلامية متشددة لا توجد لديها أدنى مقومات الديمقراطية تدعم جماعات إرهابية ظلامية بحجة أنها تقاتل من أجل الحرية والديمقراطية. ..."

"Our Western friends made it clear in London that Assad cannot be allowed to go"

"... "Our Western friends made it clear in London that Assad cannot be allowed to go now because they think chaos and an Islamist militant takeover would ensue," said one senior member of the Coalition who is close to officials from Saudi Arabia..."

STATE: The US 'open to engage group "dangerously close to al Qaeda"

"... As the moderate faction of the Syrian rebellion implodes under the strain of vicious infighting and diminished resources, the United States is increasingly looking to hardline Islamists in its efforts to gain leverage in Syria's civil war. ...On Monday, the State Department confirmed its openness to engaging with the Islamic Front following the group's seizure of a Free Syrian Army headquarters last week containing U.S.-supplied small arms and food. "We wouldn't rule out the possibility of meeting with the Islamic Front," State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said Monday. "We can engage with the Islamic Front, of course, because they're not designated terrorists ...  We're always open to meeting with a wide range of opposition groups. Obviously, it may make sense to do so at some point soon, and if we have something to announce, we will."...
Soon after its creation, the Islamic Front signed a charter that made it clear the group aimed to create a Sunni theocracy, not a Western-style democracy. The document rejected the prospect of any sort of representative government, arguing that in Islam, only "God is the sovereign." It explicitly rejects secularism as "contradictory to Islam," and argues that Syria's ethnic and religious minorities can be protected on the basis of Islamic law.
Some of the comments from the Islamic Front's top leaders support the contention that the group's ideology comes dangerously close to that of al Qaeda ..."

'Not acceptable hegemony' vs. 'desirable hegemony'

"...  Mr. Obama has his problems, the prince said, but when a country has strong allies, “you should be able to give them the assurance that what you say is going to be what you do.” The prince no longer has any official position but has lately been providing the public expression of internal Saudi views with clear approval from the Saudi government.The Saudis have been particularly shaken by Mr. Obama’s refusal to intervene forcefully in the Syrian civil war ... Prince Turki and Israeli officials have argued that the agreement merely legitimized Mr. Assad, and on Sunday, the prince called the world’s failure to stop the conflict in Syria “almost a criminal negligence.”... Saudi unhappiness with Iran’s growing power in the region is no secret, and the Saudis, who themselves engage with Iran, have no problem with the United States trying to do the same, the prince said. But he complained that bilateral talks between Iranian and American officials had been kept secret from American allies, sowing further mistrust.The prince said Iran must give up its ambitions for a nuclear weapons program — Iran says its nuclear program is only for civilian purposes — and stop using its own troops and those of Shiite allies like the Lebanese organization Hezbollah to fight in neighboring countries, like Syria and Iraq. “The game of hegemony toward the Arab countries is not acceptable  (Here 'hegemony is NOT acceptable), ” the prince said. Just as Arabs will not dress as Westerners do, he said, “we won’t accept to wear Iranian clothes, either.”... A prevalent theme at the conference was the waning of American influence in the Middle East. Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister, said: “Today we live in a zero-polar, or a-polar, world. No one power or group of powers can solve all the problems.” ... , he said, “it creates a certain vacuum” (Here hegemony is PERFECTLY ACCEPTABLE, nay, DESIRABLE)  that has allowed Russia “to make a comeback on the world scene” and has encouraged France to intervene in the Central African Republic, Libya and Mali....A former Israeli ambassador to the United States, Itamar Rabinovich, said that after Mr. Obama declined to strike Syria, neither Israel nor Iran believed any longer that he might use military force against Iran..."

"The West’s favoured faction is on the run, while the Riyadh-backed rebels steadily gain ground"

"... The final bankruptcy of American and British policy in Syria came 10 days ago as Islamic Front, a Saudi-backed Sunni jihadi group, overran the headquarters of the Supreme Military Council of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) at Bab al-Hawa on the Syrian side of the border with Turkey. The FSA, along with the Syrian National Coalition, groups that the United States and Britain have been pretending for years are at the heart of Syrian military and political opposition, has been discredited. The remaining FSA fighters are in flight, have changed sides, or are devoting all their efforts to surviving the onslaught from jihadi or al-Qa’ida-linked brigades.... 
Confusion over what is happening is so great that Western leaders may not pay as much of a political price at home as they should for the failure of their Syrian policy. But it is worth recalling that the Syrian National Coalition and the FSA are the same people for whom the US and UK almost went to war in August, and saw as candidates to replace Assad in power in Damascus. The recent debacle shows how right public opinion in both countries was to reject military intervention.Who are the winners in the new situation? One is Assad because the opposition to him – which started as a popular uprising against a cruel, corrupt and oppressive dictatorship in 2011 – has become a fragmented movement dominated by al-Qa’ida umbrella organisation the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil); the other al-Qa’ida franchisee, the al-Nusra Front; and the Islamic Front, consisting of six or seven large rebel military formations numbering an estimated 50,000 fighters, whose uniting factor is Saudi money and an extreme Sunni ideology similar to Saudi Arabia’s version of Islam..."