"Plan to isolate Hamas boomeranged"

From McClatchy's, here

"Instead of undermining Hamas, though, the strategy helped to exacerbate dangerous political fissures in Palestinian politics that have delivered another setback to the president's vision of a stable, pro-Western Middle East. The administration's drive to change the political facts on the ground foundered on opposition in Congress, the differing goals of Middle East allies such as Saudi Arabia, and an inability to provide Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas with the full backing he needed to confront Hamas."

WaPo: "Buildup in Lebanon"

from Wapo, here and a comment by Col. Lang here:

It was never going to happen that UN forces were going to be deployed along the Syrian-Lebanese border. The UN correctly understood that such a deployment would require it to fight to stop infiltration (not just monitor)while deployed along a front of a couple of hundred miles, facing east in country in which their forces would have had no secure rear at all. Once again, logistics rules, and UN commanders would have had no secure line of communications to the sea if they had done what all the diplomatic people wanted them to do.

"anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems": The Hizbullah Lebanese are preparing for renewal of their war with Israel. They are building new fortified "belts" and "stand alone" fortified zones. The "anti-aircraft equipment" is going to make a big difference this time. Israeli pilots are not used to being shot at from the ground while trying to attack targets. Pilots' aim is not as good under those conditions. Ask a pilot if that is not true.

What are they doing in the Bekaa Valley? Among other things they are training for how they will fight this time. I presume that someone is watching this?

What are the Israelis doing? They are preparing for a drive into Syria across the Golan heights, a "decisive" battle with the Syrians between there and Damascus and then a left "hook" into Lebanon to execute a "turning movement" against Hizbullah.

Will that coincide with American action against Iran? Someone should ask the Chenians that. pl

Lebanese Forces "nostalgia"

Senior European intelligence official:"The Story Behind the Abduction of Britain's 15 Sailors"

Steve Clemons of the WashingtonNote says: "I have confidence in this official, and am certain that the information shared reflects the collective analysis of his particular country -- though I have no idea whether American, Israeli, or other intelligence operations elsewhere share this perspective. And to be clear, I am in no position to validate one way or another the truthfulness of this narrative."

This is what the intelligence official recounted:

"The abduction of the sailors was an operation that was animated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The political fortunes of both have been falling this past year. Ahmadinejad lost key elections in December that not only marked his decline but marked the rise, to some degree, of political forces allied with former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani.
The abduction was designed to secure domestic political leverage for Ahmadinejad and the al Quds forces, whose budgets have been stagnant despite the rise of national income from increasing oil prices.
According to my source, Ayatollah Khamenei was furious when informed of the abduction. Iran nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani reportedly threatened to resign his post if the sailors were not released. And Rafsanjani -- behind the scenes -- "heaped scorn" on Ahmadinejad for the action he and the al Quds force triggered.
Khamenei ordered the sailors to be released and allowed Ahmadinejad to be the deliverer of the news -- on his own terms -- in a way that would allow him not to appear rebuked and would allow him to save political face.
According to the intelligence official, "Rafsanjani's crowd has become marginally stronger -- and Ahmadinejad significantly weaker -- which makes the latter even more dangerous and unpredictable."
I was also told that Ahmadinejad's chief rival politically right now is the current Mayor of Tehran and former presidential aspirant, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf.
Ahmadinejad tried to get Qalibaf out of the country by appointing him Iran's Ambassador to Venezuela, and Qalibaf refused the appointment. The intelligence official speaking to me told me that Khamenei is maneuvering Qalibaf to knock Ahmadinejad out of the presidential seat.
Again, I can't validate these tidbits shared above. But I do find them potentially important because it provides to those who don't follow the close details of Iran's theocratic politics some sense that despite Khamenei's seeming strong control of the country and its machinery -- particularly the Iranian Revolutionary Guard -- that there is instability of leadership and episodes of rogue autonomy."
More soon.

How likely is a dramatic Bush shift on Iran?

Helena Cobban on the "above 50%" likelihood of a Bush "shift" on Iran, here.

"Had Mr. Bush reduced Libby's sentence to 15 months, we might have been able to support the decision. Alas, he did not"

Interestingly, this editorial from the Washington Times, here.

Hagel: We Need to Internationalize Iraq Effort and Withdraw US Flag

Via the WashingtonNote, Chuck Hagel calls "for the American flag to be removed from the scene in Iraq and continues to hammer on the "false choice" that too many are making between the deal-making we must do in the Middle East with Arab nations on one hand and Israel's security"

Read Hagel's speech in the Financial Times here and here.

Eyeing Jordanian involvement, U.S. now rethinking the two-state solution

From Haaretz, here

On Novak & Libby

From WashingtonWhispers (US News) via WarandPiece, a preview of Bob Novak's bio "Prince of Darkness", here and a suggestion from the LastHurrah that "that Rove is the one who leaked that information to Novak. But even though he mentioned the report to Cooper--and offered up Valerie's CIA role--he didn't share the contents of the report. Moreover, if he had shared that bit with Rove, that would mean he had told Novak the report was classified even as he leaked from it. .. It's much more likely that Libby, and not Rove, leaked the contents of the still-classified report to Novak, during their super-secret conversation on July 9."

Iraqis looking for clean water

WISSAM AL-OKAILI/AFP/Getty

Bush grants Libby "Executive Clemency" & Wolfowitz joins AEI

Via WarandPiece, the WH commutes Libby's sentence, see the "grant of Executive Clemency" here, and Wolfowitz joins the AEI, here. And Fitzgerald's statement below:

Here's Fitzgerald's statement:

"We fully recognize that the Constitution provides that commutation decisions are a matter of presidential prerogative and we do not comment on the exercise of that prerogative.
We comment only on the statement in which the President termed the sentence imposed by the judge as “excessive.” The sentence in this case was imposed pursuant to the laws governing sentencings which occur every day throughout this country. In this case, an experienced federal judge considered extensive argument from the parties and then imposed a sentence consistent with the applicable laws. It is fundamental to the rule of law that all citizens stand before the bar of justice as equals. That principle guided the judge during both the trial and the sentencing.
Although the President’s decision eliminates Mr. Libby’s sentence of imprisonment, Mr. Libby remains convicted by a jury of serious felonies, and we will continue toseek to preserve those convictions through the appeals process.”

and finally this preview of things to come:

""I hope it puts pressure on the president. He's a man of pronounced loyalties and he should have loyalty to Scooter Libby," said former Ambassador Richard Carlson, a member of Libby's defense fund. "It would be a travesty for him to go off to prison. The president will take some heat for it. So what? He takes heat for everything."" (Yahoo )

Pardon coming up!!

WINEP: "Make Iran Feel the Pain"

From WINEP's Matthew Levitt in the Wall Street Journal (Europe's copy) , here

OBG: Syria: Befriending Beijing

LATEST BRIEFING
Syria: Befriending Beijing
2 July 2007
Syria is looking to further strengthen its ties with Beijing to open up new markets and to encourage even higher levels of investment from China.

On June 26, the final session of the Third Sino-Syrian Joint Committee in Damascus saw the signing of a series of agreements, which included a document setting out terms of co-operation for economic and trade efforts at the international level and the activating clauses of previous investment and economic agreements in the fields of higher education, transport and communications.

The agreements, signed by Syria's Deputy Minister of Economy and Trade Ghassan Habash and Assistant Minister of Commerce Chen Jian on behalf of China, also foresee the extending of the terms of earlier agreements and a further opening up of trade opportunities between the two countries.

Syria announced that it had officially recognised China's market economy status, a move that strengthens Beijing's hand in the international trade arena. By granting market economy status, Damascus accepts that China has minimised state funding, prohibits monopolies and met other criteria established by the World Trade Organisation. In particular, market economy status helps protect a country against anti-dumping claims, something China has often been accused of.

"The recognition indicated that both Syria and China would develop bilateral economic and trade relations in accordance with the World Trade Organisation standards, which is bound to have a positive impact on future economic cooperation between the two countries," Chen said.

Although the two have had diplomatic ties since 1949, following the Chinese revolution, Syria's trade relations with China really took off after President Bashar al-Assad visited Beijing in 2004. Since then, bilateral trade has skyrocketed to $1.5bn last year, with officials tipping this to double by 2011, a far cry from the $100m of 2000. China has also become Syria's biggest imports partner, with $691m worth of Chinese goods and services being exported to Syria in 2006.

One of the proposals put forward during Chen's visit was to establish a Syrian-Chinese bank, a step that would facilitate joint ventures and investments in Syria by Chinese firms.

Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Abdallah al-Dadari used the delegation's visit to call for more Chinese companies to invest in Syria. The areas of particular interest are the industrial, information technology, petrochemicals, agriculture, textiles and energy sectors.

It is a call that has already been heeded. Chinese firms have a strong presence in Syria, much of it in the energy sector. One of the most high profile investors is the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), which, in late 2005, joined forces with its partner, the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation of India, to buy a stake in the Al-Furat oil and gas fields in a $573m deal. CNPC is also involved in developing the Kbeibe oil field in Syria's northeast.

China also has investments in Syria's cement, fabrics and agro-industries, giving it one of the more diverse spreads of foreign direct investment in the country. While Syria is a source of raw material, especially cotton that China needs for its increasingly dominant textiles industry, China has the technology that Syria has needed to upgrade and expand its industrial base.

The economies of the two countries have much in common, though not, of course, in terms of scale, Each is shifting from fully centralised control to a system of increased private enterprise, albeit still closely regulated. Both are also trying to modernise their economies and provide employment for rapidly growing populations. Lastly, Syria and China are both trying to reach out to the Middle East.

Chen made it clear that Syria played an important part in China's policy of raising its profile in the region.

"Syria is an important Arab country and the Chinese government attaches great importance to developing trade and economic cooperation with it," he said. "China and the Arab countries have formed sound economic and trade cooperation and established a mature operation mechanism."

This mechanism could see the opening of free trade zones and a greater diversification of Chinese investment in the region, said Chen.

While it's $1.5bn bilateral trade with Syria represents just a fraction of the $1.8trn worth of business China did with the world last year, it is expanding to the benefit of both countries. Though the recently concluded Sino-Syrian trade talks did not bring about any major developments, there were another step in the not-so-long march of rapprochement between Damascus and Beijing.

OBG: Lebanon: The Business of Protection

LATEST BRIEFING
Lebanon: The Business of Protection
2 July 2007
On May 21, around 11pm, a bomb planted under a car exploded outside the ABC mall in Ashrafieh. For the business community, it marked the beginning of a series of bombs and events that would shatter their hopes, again, of a profitable summer. For the public, the symbolism of targeting one of the capital's most popular malls spread a feeling of uncertainty and vulnerability that has not abated in the spate of bombings that has followed.

"People are afraid and want to protect their homes and their children from fragments of glass while sleeping," Nada Nehme, managing director of Société Nada N Nehme, the agent for global technology company 3M, told OBG. She also said that since the ABC bombing, there had been a significant increase in business for Scotchshield protective film for windows.

The fragile security environment eerily mirrors that of two years ago, when the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri on February 14, 2005 gave way to a spate of bombings targeting commercial areas. Security businesses have regularly reported increases in trade in response to such events. For instance, in the month following the Hariri assassination, security firm Protectron reported a 25% increase in turnover.

Like other malls in Beirut, ABC already had security measures in place prior to its bombing. These included closed circuit television (CCTV) cameras, security guards checking the bags of those entering the building as well as staff using explosive detector devices for customers parking cars inside the mall.

Marwan Harfouche is the sales manager for security and management firm CHIP, which supplies CCTVs to clients such as Beirut International Airport and Casino du Liban. This year it scored a $2m contract to supply Solidere's long-awaited gold souk project in downtown Beirut. "Things have been booming for about a month and a half," Harfouche told OBG.

Same thing for Patrick Security Services Agency (PSSA), which supplies security guards and services to major businesses and institutions, including City Mall, Monoprix, Notre Dame University, An-Nahar and Virgin Megastore. Wissam Chartouny, PSSA's assistant general manager, said that business increased by 35% to 40% in the wake of the ABC bombing. He pointed out that there is always demand for business but that the nature of it varies according to the political climate.

Amid the unstable security climate, nightlife in the capital has centered around the Gemmayze area, home to a number of bars and restaurants in the east of the city. According to recent media reports, owners of businesses in the area have clubbed together to pay for security services for the area to ensure customers continue to patronise the area's nightlife. Owner of one of the businesses, Makram Zeeni, told media that a collective cost of $23,000 per month supplies the owners with surveillance cameras, night patrols and explosive detectors for parking areas.

Chartouny said PSSA has been approached by bar owners in Gemmayze and that the company declined to offer security guards since it did not believe in sending its staff to police the streets, but supplied the bar owners with canine sniffing services. According to Sami Zod, the managing director of Zod Security Group, "Sales have not increased per se since the purchasing power of the Lebanese remains the same if not decreased. Rather, there has been a shifting from certain products onto others."

The shift has mostly been from low voltage equipment like burglar/fire alarms, access control and automation to video surveillance and anti-terrorism products. According to him, the most requested items include CCTV surveillance cameras and digital video recorders (DVR), under vehicle inspection systems, explosive detectors and metal detectors.

There are an estimated 70 security firms operating in the country. Zod pointed out that some companies were refused admission into the Syndicate of Security and Safety Professionals, "because they did not meet the requested criteria for quality, professionalism, integrity and ethics."

European foreign policy has become anti-Bush

From TNR, excerpts below:

Europe's new progressive foreign policy leaders.
Contintental Drift

by Suzanne Nossel

"One of the most improbable and unintended legacies of the Bush administration is an emerging generation of European foreign policy leaders that is more progressive than any in decades. They were chosen by new heads of state eager to move beyond the polarizing politics of the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq. These top diplomats now have the potential to reshape European foreign policy in ways that will reverberate back to Washington. .."

"First came French President Nicolas Sarkozy's choice of renowned humanitarian Bernard Kouchner as his foreign minister several weeks ago. Then, last Thursday, newly seated British Prime Minister Gordon Brown tapped rising star David Miliband as foreign minister and former U.N. official Mark Malloch Brown ... (signaling) a desire to break from the past, move beyond the shadow of the Bush years, and reassert European influence on the global stage. .."

"While supportive of Bush's war, Kouchner nonetheless inveighed against Bush's methods. He rejected the president as "the least credible spokesman for human rights around." .. His first moves in office--hands-on diplomacy in Sudan over Darfur and calling for a court to try the killers of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri--mark a new brand of French foreign policy: one willing to seize the initiative, accept political risks, and lead. By personifying a hawkish liberal internationalism, Kouchner is living proof that a rejection of Bush-style unilateralism need not be a retreat into isolationism, passivity, or cowardice. .."

"... Though pundits are speculating about how his (Miliband) Jewish background may be seen in the Arab world, Miliband split from Tony Blair last summer to criticize Israel's attacks on Lebanon.."

"... In relatively short order, of course, the most important interlocutors for these new officials in Washington will be not Bush administration officials but their successors. Depending on the political persuasions of the next administration, these European foreign policy counterparts may prove a valuable or a vexing part of the Bush legacy..."

US Implicates Iran & Hezbollah in January Attack

"According to Bergner, Dakdouk (allegedly Hezbollah op.) served as a liaison between Iran and Qais al-Kazaali, a former spokesman for cleric Muqtada al-Sadr who now leads his own Shi'ite group. Bergner said al-Kazaali's group carried out the brazen Karbala attack when gunmen, disguised as Americans, tricked their way into a government compound, killing one U.S. soldier immediately and abducting and later killing four others."

Via IraqSlogger, here.

WSJ: "Sensing the Next Peril in Lebanon"

Via SyriaComment.

Sensing the Next Peril in Lebanon

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By Jay Solomon
WASHINGTON — The Bush administration, fearing a rupturing of Lebanon’s political system, is ratcheting up pressure on Syria and its Lebanese alliesahead of what the U.S. believes could be a bid by opponents of Prime Minister Fuad Siniora to set up a parallel government in Beirut by the fall.
On Friday, President Bush signed a proclamation blacklisting from U.S. travel any Syrian or Lebanese individuals seen as threatening Beirut’s democraticallyelected government. It also listed 10 people who the U.S. believes are playing central roles in seeking to overthrow the current government.
The U.S. moves come as the United Nations reports an unimpeded flow of weapons into Lebanon from Syria, part of an apparent campaign by Damascus and Iran to rearm the Shiite militia Hezbollah after last summer’s war with Israel.
U.S. and Lebanese officials say these arms are also reaching a growing number of Palestinian and Sunni militant groups in Lebanon challenging Mr. Siniora’s control in the north and south of the country.
This mix of arms and political polarization is infecting Lebanon with rising sectarian tensions and the threat of a return to all-out civil war, said U.N. and Lebanese officials. It is also stoking concern in Washington and Tel Aviv of another major conflict erupting between Lebanon-based militants and Israel in the months ahead.
“I am deeply concerned that Lebanon remains in the midst of a debilitating political crisis and faces ongoing attacks aimed at destabilizing and undermining its sovereignty,” U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon wrote in a report released Friday. Mr. Ban said he was particularly alarmed by lastmonth’s bombing in southern Lebanon that killed six Spanish U.N. peacekeepers, as well as the firing of three Katyusha rockets into Israel from the sameregion.
Among the 10 individuals who the U.S. believes are playing central roles in seeking to overthrow the current Beirut government are Assef Shawkat, who isthe brother-in-law of Syrian President Bashar Assad as well as the country’s and intelligence chief; Hisham Ikhtiyar, one of the Syrian leader’s topadvisers; and Rustum Ghazali, former head of Syrian intelligence insideLebanon. Six former Lebanese ministers who are viewed as working as proxies forDamascus inside Lebanon are also on the list. U.S. officials acknowledged that the U.S. travel bans are unlikely to have much direct impact on Syrian leaders. But they say they are more focused on dissuading Lebanese politicians from siding with the Syrians against Mr. Siniora.
Of particular focus are Christian politicians who have joined into a formal political alliance with Hezbollah in a bid to unseat Mr. Siniora. Some of them,such as retired Gen. Michel Aoun, have in the past coordinated closely with the U.S. on Lebanon policy, particularly on the need to reduce Syrian influence. They also have presented themselves as potential allies to Washington if any new government is formed in Beirut.
“A lot of people are opposed to Siniora, and might try to bring him down but still want to present themselves as friends with the U.S,” said a senior Bush administration official working on the Middle East. “We want to convey to them that there’s a price to pay” for their actions…..

"Soiled Diaper Wearers Unite"

"I am confident that British and Scottish authorities will fully investigate the yuppie terrorists. I am less confident that we will devote our energies to the task of actually killing or capturing Bin Laden."

Via the TalkingPointsMemo, an essay byan "unimpressed" Larry Johnson at TPMCafe, here.

Military Intelligence Failure in Iraq

A good story with an even better comment by Col. Pat Lang, Here. And an essay on HUMINT reform by Norbert Schulz at SicSemperTyrannis, here.

"Bush Besieged & Isolated"

"Bush is fixated on Iraq, according to friends and advisers. One former aide went to see him recently to discuss various matters, only to find Bush turning the conversation back to Iraq again and again. He recognizes that his presidency hinges on whether Iraq can be turned around in 18 months. "Nothing matters except the war," said one person close to Bush. "That's all that matters. The whole thing rides on that."
WaPo here.