Friday, February 18, 2011

Egypt: ".. High ranking officers in the state security service are devoted full time to carry on what people here call "counter revolution.."

The arms wrestling match in Egypt is entering an important phase. More than 2 million gathered Today (Friday) at Tahrir Sq. The MBs tried, as expected, to color the protest with a chain of prayers. But soon after, the protesters went back to their demands of dismissing the cabinet of Shafiq and the implentation of the rest of the demands including a "civil state". Details aside, the significance of Today's protest lies in the fact that it is a message to the military and to the aides of former President Mubarak that there is to be no "let down." My concern now is about next Friday. Sheikh Qaradawy, a prominent Islamic figure called for giving the military a chance. He said that God created earth in 6 days while he could create it in a second. He also called for ending strikes and patience. This was a direct consequence of negotiations between the MBs and the military.
Qaradawy ,who resides in Qatar in a self imposed exile for the last 30 years, was not totally in sync with the military. But he caused some doubts about the call for a peaceful gathering every Friday to exert pressure on the Generals' council....
But the basic thing that will decide the outcome of all this will be to sustain the pressure. Next Friday will be very important particularly that symbols of the deposed regime are trying desperately to make a come back. Finance from very corrupt "business men" is available and high ranking officers in the state security service are devoted full time to carry on what people here call "counter revolution". I know that Today's Tahrir Sq. sent a very depressive message to these guys. But as I said we do not know what will happen next Friday. Best possible scenario is a very large gathering in Tahrir and Alexandria.
Any "legal" or "constitutional" outcome of what happened will be calibrated by whether or not the population will sustain the pressure. As for the MBs , I am less worried now. In fact, I think they, as a platform and ideology, are weakened. The proof is that they are dropping many points in their tradional demands. They, for example, accepted the idea of forming a non-religious political party, they also accept what Egyptians call "a civil government" despite our failure to dismiss the 2ed article of the constitution which states that Islamic Sharia is "a main source of laws". It was president Sadat who introduced this article in 1972 and since then it has always been there. But the general picture testifies to obvious transformation in the MBs. The old guard are much less powerful today than before. It is still basically a religious group but I just wanted to say that no player in the current situation in Egypt could be immune from change. History will show us later the extent of the changes inside this movement. After all. the Minerva owl flies only at night."
 

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