Dr. Iraq at Abou Muqawama discens 6 "near-term dangers in Iraq"...
"....1. OMS/JAM backlash to Maliki's crackdown. Sadrists were not happy about the mass arrests in Amara, and there is considerable risk of backlash, especially among hard-line factions, if they think their ceasefire is being exploited by the Dawa/ISCI backed ISF to secure a permanent political advantage. JAM is not dead . . . and they are capable of producing considerable instability if they choose to.
2. Failure to meet rising Sunni expectations. Maliki’s operations against JAM have bought him a window of opportunity with Iraq’s Sunnis, but it has also increased expectations ......
2. Failure to meet rising Sunni expectations. Maliki’s operations against JAM have bought him a window of opportunity with Iraq’s Sunnis, but it has also increased expectations ......
3. Electing to fight. There is a real danger of violent intra-sectarian competition in the lead-up to, or immediate aftermath of, the provincial elections. ....
4. Maliki’s overconfidence, part I. Maliki’s growing confidence in the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces may actually reduce his sense of urgency in accommodating the country’s Sunni population. Given nearly 100,000 armed Awakening groups/SoIs, that would be a BIG mistake....
5. Maliki’s overconfidence, part II. If Iraq’s leaders, including Maliki, delude themselves into thinking that the ISF has achieved full operational independence, that may frustrate cooperation with Coalition Forces ..
6. Iran. Iran continues to have incentives to make our life difficult in Iraq – and Tehran has enough influence with all sides to make this happen..."
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