Thursday, February 21, 2008

"....The assassination of Mughniyeh should be seen as an alternative to a large-scale war, and not a prelude to one..."

Seale, here, ...and Friday-Lunch-Club, (February14th) here
Seale's 'take':
"...Although such killings run the risk of provoking revenge attacks, the Israeli calculation may be that such a risk is worth taking, compared to the inevitable losses that would be incurred by a major military operation, not to speak of the missile threat to the civilian population of northern Israel.
If this analysis is correct, the assassination of Mughniyeh should be seen as an alternative to a large-scale war, and not a prelude to one -- as many Arabs fear. Israel is seeking to deter Hizbullah not to provoke it into another conflict on the scale of the ill-fated 2006 war...."
Lunch-Club's 'take:
...... folks in the region seem to believe that taking out Mughniyeh ushered a period of (in the words of a "friend")"tasfiyat" (liquidations). This of course (again, in the mind of this same source) has once and for all, ruled out the possibility of a "conventional" large scale attack on either Iran &/or Syria, ... and the nature of the hit (Mughnieh) meant to say just that! It is believed that the "discounted" Fath El Islam (& co.) are not operating according to a "purely takfiri-salafi" agenda BUT according to the "dictates" of the struggle in the region. Look for M14 to continue slognaeering and sectarian (ultra-nationalist) mobilization (s) in the hope that a "reduced & controlled" crisis would warrant a large scale foreign intervention. look for saudi-syrian relations to stoke differences further, and look .... for a major campaign of "scalping" to encompasse the whole Levant (perhaps furher in the ... Gulf!) GPC


Anonymous said...

I guess everyone is guessing!!!! No one knows for sure and wishful thinking stands for deep thought and analysis. What is sure however, is that Nasrallah will not be sitting twiddling his thumbs. Today (Friday), he is scheduled to make a speech and talk about the preliminary results of the investigation of IM's assassination. Hold your horses, folks. The ride will be 'different'.

mo said...

Zero sum game. Israel, if it is to make any kind of peace agreement with the Palestinians (and or Syria) will also need to concede water to them. The current levels of water rationed to the West Bank and Gaza will have to increase dramatically and any agreement may see Syrian access to the Golan aquifers. All the exisiting desalination plants and those planned to come online will not make up the difference. Added to that they are using water at an ever increasing rate and polluting their current sources (which why they left Gaza) and that they want to grow and you relaise that they have to find an alternative. Look at a map of the area. There is only 1 alternative and it is the Litani. They want a large scale war because they have realised that Hizballah are going nowhere. And if Hizballah are going nowhere they are not getting acces to the Litani.

Unknown said...

Mo that is a very interesting analysis.

as to the post: in both pieces seal's and FLC's the assumption is that the top players control everything. But as street clashes show things can easily get our of control. It just needs the right spark.....

well and then there are those interested in conflict here.

Anonymous said...

Sr.guy- you said a couple of days back:

Not to rain on the parade of 'armchair' generals and doomsday seers, the mountain is likely to lay down a mouse. But it is quite pleasant, easy, to speculate over doomsday in Lebanon. Israel has lost the war and it will have to live with it. The Saudis can do nothing but pay the US to forget that Bandar and AlQaeda are in cohoots. This is a sorry coalition.
Civil peace in Lebanon is more resilient than people are willing to give the Lebanese credit for.

AND TODAY YOU DISAGREE WITH SEALE's analysis as "wisful thinking". SO WHICH ONE IS IT?

Anonymous said...

wrong previously stated

Anonymous said...


Both analyses are consistent with each other. That HN will take actions (he swore to that) to avenge IM's assassination does not mean he will start a civil war. He will do it at a time and place and manner of his choosing. In Lebanon, the situation on the streets has significantly calmed down, each side for his own reason: one has found out it will lose the battle, the other does not want the battle in the first place. So far, the 'cease fire' is holding and there are no indications it will flare up again soon. The fighters of Al Mustaqbal are young men (13-20). I guess they got a spanking from their parents.
Shopkeepers in West Beirut have served notice to warmongers on Al Mustaqbal side that they will not support them. Hence, the truce. Affaire a suivre.

mo said...

The local situation does not preclude M14 using an Israeli attack on Hizballah as an opportunity to try their luck. Of course they are going to have their backsides handed to them in a local fight but they may believe that with the help of the IDF they mayhave a chance